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Invest Yourself

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Insiders Club Trading Course Part 5 Bookmark

We compiled a list of “top ten things you can do to be a better “investor” than just about anyone you know. Please read through them, they really are good points.

Top Ten Ways to Outperform 90% of Investors

1) Use a Margin Account Only for Shorting Stocks.

Margin–borrowing from

We compiled a list of “top ten things you can do to be a better “investor” than just about anyone you know. Please read through them, they really are good points.

Top Ten Ways to Outperform 90% of Investors

1) Use a Margin Account Only for Shorting Stocks.

Margin–borrowing from your broker--increases your buying power, and when all is right with the world it literally doubles profit potential. But if you make a lousy play you have to pay back double. That’s why we have preached for years against using margin. There’s already enough risk in the market.

Let’s suppose you like stock XYZ at 50 but don’t have the cash in your account to buy all that you want. So you decide to “margin” it, which simply means you borrow 50% of the money to buy XYZ from your brokerage. If the trade goes well and XYZ moves higher, you can sell with a very nice profit.

But what if the market is in the process of correcting? Old XYZ could take a 10-15-point loss, and there is a good chance that eventually the brokerage will call you for the balance. Well, if you had to borrow the money to buy XYZ in the first place, where are you going to get the money to pay back the broker? We know that sometimes margin calls go out, and the customer simply doesn’t have the money to pay. That is an ugly situation that can result in liquidating positions, closing accounts and facing lawsuits.

It’s a different situation with short sales. Brokers insist that you have a margin position to do this sort of trading. That’s because short selling involves borrowing shares from your broker before selling them on the open market. When you are ready to close your short position, you “buy back” shares on the open market and return them to the brokerage.

At InvestYourself we err on the side of safety. Buying on margin might be OK if you are a day trader who has the right tools and is operating in real time and keeping an eye on things. But if you are a short term investor or even a long-termer you have to be extremely careful if you are going to employ margin. You cannot buy something on margin and sit back and forget about it. A bad market stretch can get you into a boatload of trouble.

2) Beware of ‘Averaging Down’

This is defensive approach that can help you survive huge mood swings that take place in momentum stocks. But "averaging down" has as many cons as pros.

Here’s how it works: If you buy 100 shares of stock XYZ at 50 and it falls to 45 and then you buy 100 more shares, your "average" cost is just 47.50. If XYZ then bounces up from 45, you only need to get to 47.50 to break even on the trade.

It’s a reasonable idea for veteran investors. However, all too often people use averaging down to justify a poor trade. If you buy into XYZ with the idea that it is going up and it starts to fall, you have to ask why. If the market is healthy, and XYZ hasn't released any bad news, XYZ should be at least holding its own, right? Well, someone doesn't like it and you don't know the reason why, at least not yet…

Now suppose you buy more XYZ to average down and then the next day the company releases bad news. You have effectively bought more shares of a poor trade, and averaging down hurt you.

Don’t forget folks, the market insiders let news out amongst themselves and the world spreads quickly. Many many is the time a stock that should at least be holding its own is falling and apparently for no good reason. Then what happens? A few days later the news hits, and it’s found that they had a blow up at their plant, or the CEO was caught in bed with an orangutan or what have you. You get the point. The “market’ knew, and you didn’t

Here’s an example that works: Let’s say that you bought XYZ because the company announced good earnings a day ago and the stock is trading higher. At the same time company ABC, which is in the same sector as XYZ, announces earnings that miss by a mile. More times than not all of the stocks in the sector will take hit. Generally this is a sympathy fall, and since XYZ didn't do anything wrong, buying more on that type of dip is often a good idea. The dip usually doesn’t last long, and you get the chance to buy more XYZ at a bargain price.

What about averaging down with XYZ simply because the market is having a “bad hair day?” This gets tricky, but here’s the reasoning: It depends on what XYZ has done lately. If XYZ has made an orderly rise and takes a step backward because the market pouts, you can buy more at the lower price in hopes that the market will rebound the next day and XYZ will be on the move again. BUT, and this is very important, if XYZ has already run for a bunch of points and then gets smacked in a nasty market sell, we DO NOT recommend buying more and averaging down

Why? Well, if you are already up 20 dollars and XYZ gets hit for 5 in a one-day drop, you are still up 15 bucks. If you buy more and the market falls yet another day, you have really eaten into your profits. Since we never know how far a market will "shake out," you could be buying into a very big hole.

In that instance we like to simply take profits from the first fall. If it wants to fall more, you are out with a good profit. If and when it bottoms out and starts back up you can buy again.

3) Master the ‘Mental Game’

One of the biggest problems that investors face ISN’T how to make money; that can be fairly easy to do. The real problem is KEEPING it! We’ve all heard the horror story about somebody who made $10,000 one month but lost it all the next month. Then he made some more but gave it back. That could be you, and you are not alone.

Trading is 95% a mental game. Think about it--you have to find a winner, then know when to take your profit (or loss) and then do it again and again. That can create a great deal of stress leading to mistakes.

Once you are up on a few trades you might start to relax your defensive posture. You let a stock fall much further than you know you should and then start "hoping it up" versus cutting
your loss while it is still small. That mental error will kill you time and time again.

Perhaps you make a few bad trades and begin convincing yourself that you just can’t succeed at investing. You start beating yourself up mentally, and your negative attitude eventually consumes you. You make your worst fears come true.

If you have had the opportunity to attend any sales motivational training seminars, the really good ones will teach you this axiom: what you tell yourself will indeed come true. The conventional thinking is that the subconscious is like a big computer, and it only does what it is told. If you tell it enough times that you cannot find a good trade, it will find a way to make sure that you don't find any good trades. If you tell yourself that you are a failure, it will help to make you a failure.

There is extensive research in this area, and we have witnessed enough of it to know that it is absolutely true. The good news is that the subconscious can also be programmed to make you a success on a daily basis.

Let's use an example. Remember the first time you tried to drive a car with a clutch? How did it go?
Probably not too well. The car probably bucked and kicked and you were probably frustrated. First you rev the engine a bit, then release the clutch, but not too quick or not too slow or it will buck or "peel out" on you. Just when you are proud that you got the car moving
you realize, "Oh no! I have to shift to second gear now!" and do it again while moving the shift lever. You are convinced that you will never get it right. Guess what? Once you practiced doing it right enough times your conscious mind forgot about it and your subconscious took over. Soon you are double-clutching while yelling at the car next to you; while rolling down the window; while eating a Big Mac; while talking to the kids; while thinking of your next vacation, while pushing the buttons on the GPS.

Once your subconscious has taken over, and once it is trained, it rarely goofs up. What seemed impossible is now second nature, like riding a bike. Did you know you cannot forget how to ride a bike? It’s impossible, your subconscious has been trained and it’s locked in there for good.

That is the power of the subconscious, and if yours is clouded with "stinkin thinkin" you will indeed find bad trades and make other mental errors that will cost you money. Winning investors train their subconscious to help them succeed.

Read this and DO this and you will become a better and more profitable investor: First, start telling yourself that you ARE NOT A FAILURE! Don’t just think it--TALK TO YOURSELF. Brain researchers have determined that the subconscious can be trained in about 21 days.
That is not a long time to change a lifestyle, but it is true. In 21 days you can break bad habits or create good ones.

Find out what you are doing wrong, and if it is holding a loser too long, say out loud, over and over, “I WILL NOT HOLD A LOSER!” Do it every day, many times a day. Believe us, it works.

If you approach investing with the attitude, “Oh man, I hope I don't lose any money today," you probably will. If you approach it like this--"I am a good investor, and I am going to make some great trades today"--you probably will.

It is hard to believe, but this is one area of psychology that actually works. Try it for a month. You should be pleasantly surprised by the results. In years gone by I was a personal motivator and sales trainer. I know full well how programming your mind will help you make more wise decisions.

4) Respect the ‘10 a.m. Rule’

Unless you are a serious trader, have a great execution platform AND are available to sit and watch the market open, you break this investing commandment at your peril—Thou shall not open a long or short position in the first half hour of the market!

This is known in our circle as the “10 a.m. rule” since the NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX begin trading at 9:30 a.m. EST. It’s geared to short-term (several days to a week) and well as longer-term investors, and is designed to prevent a disappointing start to their stock or option play.

Our goal is to wait for early session volatility to subside and for the market to give us a reasonable idea of the direction for the entire day.

As the open approaches, the market usually builds momentum in one direction or another. The momentum peaks at the opening bell as market orders are fired off and institutions pile in or out of their favorite stocks. Time and again we’ve seen the DOW open 50-plus points higher than the previous day’s close and continue to gain ground; the same happens in reverse. Individual stocks—propelled by news—often open several points higher or lower.

However, the rush of buying and selling usually begins to ebb by 10 a.m. and the market pauses. The DOW can reverse from plus-50 to plus-25, break-even or actually negative territory in a few minutes.

If you buy your stock during the first half hour, you might get a quick pop or opening “gap.” But it is likely to “fade” as the minutes pass. A one-point gain at 9:45 could be a one-point loss at 10. That’s no way to start a trade.

Around 10—sometimes a bit sooner or later--there is a measure of equilibrium. Often the market will slowly chart a course that will continue for the remainder of the day.

That’s the time to consider entering a position. The best scenario is for the stock to gap a little at the open, sell off around 10 and then start moving up again, often surpassing the opening gap price. This is “confirmation” that the initial move was solid. The same goes for a short sale; look for a gap down, a recovery, and then a confirming move to the downside.

After entering a position, you can place a stop loss a few points behind your entry price and be relatively sure that you won’t be stopped out in the short run. Of course, you must be prepared to withstand the occasional bump in the road.

Note: The 10 a.m. rule is primarily for trades that last longer than a day, often much longer. Day traders do much of their work during the first half hour of the session when volatility gives them the opportunity to “scalp” quick profits. They are usually often of their trades by 10 a.m.

5) Don’t Use a Market Order Before the Opening Bell

This is similar to the “10 a.m. rule”–ignore it and you could get burned.

Let’s say you call your broker at 8:30 a.m., an hour before the open, and tell him you want to buy 500 shares of XYZ "at the market.” It closed the previous day’s session at 50. You are telling him that you are willing to take XYZ at whatever price it is trading at when your order comes up. Therein lies the problem. Remember we are at the mercy of the market makers (the guys who make a market, or warehouse the stock for us to buy). They are privy to a lot of information, folks, and one of the biggest advantages they have is that they see all the orders for the particular stock.

Here is a very typical situation: When you told the broker (or placed your online order) to buy XYZ at the market you have given the market maker the ability to "fill" you (or in other words execute your order) basically whenever he wants. So let’s suppose XYZ opens the next day at 52 (remember you liked it at 50) and instantly runs to 53-1/2 as hundreds of orders are getting filled.

Now the market maker has your order in his book and you have agreed to let him fill you at "wherever the market is trading." Let’s say the market maker sees the new orders starting to dry up. So what do you think he will do when the new orders stop coming in? He will fill your market order is what he will do! So you will get filled at 53-1/2 even though that is the exact high of the morning and XYZ is already pulling back. So in a matter of a few minutes XYZ can be back
to 51, but you own it at 53-1/2. You are already in the hole. That is unacceptable.

When you place a market order you are putting yourself on the "wheel." We often call it the "wheel of misfortune." Basically the rules state that your order will go on a numerical "wheel" and your order goes on the wheel at the bottom, and one by one as the wheel rotates toward
the top, orders are removed and filled. Basically the idea is a first come, first served concept like standing in line at the deli. But in the real world it doesn't work that way all the time. A certain number of market orders are reserved for order execution at the "discretion of the market maker." Now if he has your order in his hand and he sees a lot of demand for the stock, do you think he will put you in at 52 while he has all these new orders flooding his books, or will he fill them first and when they dry up, use yours? You can easily guess the answer.

If you are anxious to get into the market before 10 a.m., use a “limit order” and set the highest price that you are willing to pay for the stock. You might miss your fill--and you might also miss taking a quick loss.

6) Use Versatile Exchange Traded Funds

Until recent years, if you wanted to diversify your portfolio over a range of industries and companies but lacked the means to purchase blocks of individual stocks, you were limited to buying mutual funds. Then the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) introduced Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) which are giant trusts normally managed by banks. They control millions of shares of stock from thousands of companies.

Like mutual funds, ETFs offer diversification. Unlike mutual funds, ETFs give owners the same flexibility as if they actually owned shares of stock. Essentially, anything you can do with stocks you can do with ETFs—buy and sell at any time during the trading day, sell short, buy on margin. Most are optionable. They also don’t charge a “load” (sales price) like many mutual funds, although your broker will charge you a commission as with any other stock purchase. ETFs typically have low expense costs and some tax advantages over mutuals. Like any stock, they are easy to track by following their symbols on the AMEX, which offers more than 200 of them.

ETFs have an important advantage over stocks because most of them are exempt from the “upticks” rule for short sales. Remember, when you “short” a stock you are borrowing shares from your broker in anticipation that the price will decline. If the stock drops, you can “buy back” the shares at the lower price and pocket the difference between that price and the higher price where you entered the trade. But before you can enter a short trade on a stock, you must wait for an uptick (i.e., a last sale price is higher than the one before). In a fast-moving market, a stock can drop a long way before it upticks, and the short seller is taking the risk that he may enter the trade just as the stock is about to reverse course and head higher. When a stock gains in price, the short seller loses.

Fortunately, you can short an ETF without waiting for an uptick. This allows you to jump on a downtrend just as it is beginning to gain strength.

ETFs follow most of the indexes, mirroring their daily performance, and they have acquired some catchy nicknames. The “Diamonds” (DIA) track the 30 stocks in the DOW. Standard and Poor’s Depository Receipts are called “Spiders” and follow the S&P 500 (SPY). There are “Vipers” and “HOLDRs” and others. The NASDAQ-100 Index Tracking Stock is commonly known as the “Qubes” (QQQ). Others follow various industry sectors like retail (RTH) and semiconductors (SMH).

ETFs trade at a predetermined fraction of the overall index they follow. The DOW Diamonds trade at 1/100th of the size of the actual DOW. The Spiders are 1/10th of the S&P 500. The Qubes are 1/40th of the value of the NASDAQ 100.

We like ETFs for IRAs instead of mutual funds because they are ideal for short-term trades. During the back-to-school or holiday sales seasons, the retail ETF is often a big winner. If semiconductor companies are announcing good earnings, SMH will likely make money.

Best of all, if the overall market is moving but you aren’t excited about individual stocks, you can still take part in the action via DIA, SPY or QQQ. For versatility, Exchange Traded Funds can’t be beat.

7) Sell Before the Earnings Report

Here’s an all-too familiar scenario that leaves traders scratching their heads: 1) Your favorite stock rallies in the days before the company releases its quarterly earnings report; 2) The company beats the earnings estimates from analysts; 3) Immediately after the positive earnings news hits the wires, the stock sells off.

After getting burned in this manner a few times, we established a policy of selling our short-term stock positions during the session prior to the earnings release. Here’s why: If the market is pouting or in a gradual downswing, almost 90% of earnings releases will be met with selling. When the market is flat about 70% will be met with selling, and when the market is in a strong upward move, about 50% will sell off regardless of how well they did.

The wise trader won’t argue with those numbers. Sure, sometimes you’ll sell out and the stock will jump after the earnings release. But the odds are against it.

When a stock announces great numbers and gets smacked down, it is usually the fault of the momentum players who hop on a stock two weeks before earnings and then bail out. But then the small fund guys will dump, and they may need to get out of 20-50,000 shares, and they use the strength of the late earnings runup to sell.

But those fund managers will notice a company that reports solid earnings, and they will start nibbling on the stock in anticipation of a move into the next earnings release. That’s when to re-enter a position—when the carnage is over and investors are finally responding to the strength of the company’s profit picture.

If you are a longer-term holder, hold the solid stock right up to the next release, and if the overall market mood is decent you will be rewarded. If your time span is much shorter, catch the initial rebound, sell out, and make a note of that stock for the next earnings season. Then two weeks (or even three) before the next reporting season, take another position. And don’t forget to sell before the earnings report arrives!

Note: Earnings reports can be released shortly after the close of a market session, in the morning before the start of a new session, or even during a session. Check with the investor relations department at the company to get a firm release time and date, and then make your move accordingly.

8) Employ a Stop Loss and be Prepared to Take a Small Loss

Using a stop loss virtually removes the human element from the emotional decision to sell a stock or cover a short sale. You’ll stop yourself before you destroy your account. With most of your capital preserved, you’ll return to invest another day.

The stop loss is simply a sell order that is placed a point or two or three below your buy price when you enter a stock position. If the market goes against your stock and it declines to your stop price, a market order is automatically triggered to promptly take you out of the position. The theory is simple: Take a small loss today rather a big loss tomorrow.

We suggest using a stop loss for nearly every one of our plays. The placement of the stop can be quite specific, i.e., placing the stop just below the point where the stock breaks out of a strong chart pattern. Or it can be general, maybe a couple of points to give the shares some “wiggle room” during periods of market volatility. In most cases, we’ll set a stop to limit our potential loss to no more than 10%. We’ve found that if you average out the stocks daily ups and downs over a 12 day period, and set your stop just below the “biggest wiggle lower”, it’s proven to be a very useful stop level.

But a stop is for more than downside protection. It should also be used to lock in profits when a trade is going your way. The technique is using a “trailing” stop.

Say you bought shares in XYZ at 20 and set your stop loss at 18. A week later XYZ is at 22. The savvy investor will cancel his old stop and place a new one at 20. If the stock sells off and hits 20, you’ll be out of the position at break-even. If XYZ continues to climb to, say, 24, you can put in a new stop at 22 and lock in a two-point (10%) gain. In a rising market, you might be able to “trail” the stop below an advancing stock for weeks or months, locking in additional profits along the way.

(Note: For short sales—which profit when the underlying stock falls--the stop loss rule applies in reverse. Set the stop loss a few points ABOVE the entry price and trail it downward as the shares decline.)

If you work with a traditional broker, he or she can set the stop loss when you make your purchase. Make sure the broker places a firm order in the system and doesn’t use a “mental” stop like, “Get me out if it hits 60.” That unverifiable type of order got Martha Stewart into trouble.

If you use an online broker, you can set your stop and adjust it electronically with a few mouse clicks. You’ll probably be asked to designate your stop as a “day order” that expires at the end of the trading session, or “good ‘til cancel,” which keeps the order in place until you remove it. Most brokerages allow good ‘til cancel orders to expire after 30 days, so it is important to monitor your account periodically to adjust your stops and make sure the orders are still active.

A version of the stop order is the “stop limit” order. In this case, a sale will occur only at the exact price you determine instead of at the market.

This protects the investor in case the stock “gaps down” at the open because of bad news, an earnings disappointment, etc. If you set a traditional stop at, say, 18, and the stock gaps down at the open to 16, a market order will be triggered and the order will likely fill around 16. If a stop limit is in place, however, there will not be a sale at 16 but only if the price drifts back to 18. This sort of gap-down and bounce-back happens regularly, and a stop limit can save a lot of money in these cases.

The downside to the stop limit, though, is the possibility that the price won’t recover. Shares could gap down to 16, then drift to 15, 14 or lower before stabilizing. In this situation, the stop limit is never triggered, and the shareholder must make the agonizing decision to sell at a much lower price than anticipated or hang onto the stock in hopes of a rally that may never come.

Other things to know:

1) You can use stops on options for the same reasons as stocks.

2) You are not required to wait until your stock falls to your stop price before selling out. If you sense that the market is turning against you, you can always cancel your stop and place an order to sell immediately.

3) If it appears that your stock will gap down at the open of a volatile session, you can always cancel your stop before trading begins. Many times a strong stock will lose some points at the open but quickly regain its upward momentum and end the day in the black. By canceling the stop order, you can weather the volatility and stay in the position (you can always place another stop later). The risk is that the price will slide at the open--and keep falling.

Keep in mind that there will be occasions when your favorite stock meanders lower, touches your stop price—triggering a sale—and then soars to new highs. That’s frustrating, but it’s part of the game.

Intelligent account management, in our view, includes setting stops, taking small losses when they occur, and locking in profits as a play succeeds. With this approach, you’ll preserve your capital and slowly but surely reach your investing goals.

9) Don’t Get Trapped Into a ‘Buy and Hold’ Mentality

This is critical to the way we approach our investments, especially the management of our retirement accounts.

“Buy and hold” has been the mantra of the market for years. Stick it out and you’ll weather any downturns, it is said. Over the long term, stocks outperform bonds and cash.

True enough, over the span of decades stocks did do quite well. But it was all a question of “when” you first invested. Believe it or not, those that put all their money in the market in Jan – May of 2000 are at best break even here in 2011. Some are still underwater.

Most of us, though, don’t have decades to solidify our retirement nest egg. Sadly, many investors lost half or more of their nest eggs by adhering to the buy and hold strategy in 2000-01 and then again in the disaster that was the 2008 market crash and many have yet to fully recover. They need to preserve the assets that remain and begin gaining ground.

You must first understand the nature of the market’s cycles. Savvy investing as the cycles come and go is the underpinning of our retirement funds management plan. For our money, it’s the only way to return ravaged portfolios to good health.

At the end of the go-go decade for stocks in the 1990s we shifted into a bear market cycle. But all bear markets are not alike. We’re convinced that stocks are in the early stages of a long-term “secular” bear market.

Secular trends last 5-20 years with the average length 14 years. As long as each successive market high and market low is higher than the previous one, we are in a secular bull market. Lower highs followed by lower lows signals a secular bear market.

In the past 200 years, there have been 14 secular trends in the US market, seven bull and seven bear. The bear that followed the 1929 market crash lasted a record 20 years. The latest secular bull began in December 1982 and—as we see it--ended in March 2000. Only two 20-year bull markets in the 19th century exceeded that 18-year run.

Secular trends are punctuated by periodic short-term “cyclical” reversals that can last many weeks or months and can move the market hundreds or thousands of points. The cyclical move eventually runs out of steam, however, and the market returns to the dominant trend.

Look at Japan. For two decades the secular bull market in the Nikkei couldn’t be stopped, and the index tripled in value in the last half of the 1980s. Then the market entered a 12-year secular bear, dropping from near 40,000 to under 10,000. But here’s a key point: There were six rallies of 20%-60% in Japan in the midst of an overall 70% decline.

During the last secular bull market in the US there were two cyclical bears, one that concluded with the market crash in October 1987, and another in 1990-91. Each time the market regained its footing and roared to new highs.

A buy-and-hold approach works well in a secular bull market but is a dud during a secular bear. The total annual return in the 1982-2000 bull run was in double digits. But in the last secular bear, 1966-82, the annual real return was a NEGATIVE 1.5%. Tossing your dough into a simple passbook account would have outperformed stocks during that period.

So it is critically important to recognize whether the market is in a secular or cyclical cycle and to adjust your investing strategy accordingly. When the bear is gripping Wall Street we’ll spend much of our time in cash or bonds but prepared to jump into stocks during a cyclical rally and jump out when it fizzles. During the next big bull stampede we’ll be aggressively in stocks most of the time but head to the sidelines during the occasional cyclical correction.

Mutual funds and Exchange Traded Funds are ideal for this style of investing because of their diversification, flexibility and liquidity. Our goal is to grow our nest egg, preserve what we have in the tough times, and start growing again when the market permits. Along the way, we’ll sleep much better than the buy-and-hold crowd.

10) Take Money Home--Sell Half Positions on Winning Trades

This is a prime moneymaking strategy, and it works for day trades, short-term as well as longer-term investments.

Let’s say you’re day trading and employed our 10 a.m. rule to buy 1,000 shares of XYZ at 15 in the morning. Happily, by 3:30 p.m. the stock has zoomed to 20. As the closing bell approaches you face a decision. You can sell all 1,000 shares of XYZ for a five dollar (33%) profit, which is a very good day’s work. Or you can stick with your position in anticipation of follow-through gains the next day and additional profits on your 1,000 shares. Often a stock that has a big day will “gap up” at the open the following morning and add several more points in the first half hour or so.

In most cases, however, the wise course is to sell half the position (500 shares) heading into the close and put half of those profits into your account. Then you can hold the remaining 500 shares and look for an opening gap the next morning. If that occurs, great! Your trade is even more profitable. However, if XYZ does not move higher the next morning or even declines, you can sell the remainder of your position. Your trade will still end nicely in the black because you pocketed profits the previous day. Note: We never let a stock fall far so much that it wipes out all our profit on the shares remaining in play.

The same goes for trades lasting several days, weeks or months. If your position has gained, say, 10-25% or more in a relatively short period, you can sell half, pocket those profits and let the remainder run to hopefully greater gains. Many traders keep whittling down their position a little at a time and finally close it when they figure that they have maximized their profits.

This approach offers tremendous flexibility. For example, many high-flying stocks are prone to wide price swings. The savvy investor will hop aboard a stock in the early stages of an upswing and sell half positions as it advances until finally selling out completely. Then the stock swings in the other direction, taking the price below his original buying price. When the stock bottoms out and begins another upswing, he can go for another profitable ride.

In our opinion, the winning investor plays defensively. He protects his capital by using a stop loss; he takes half profits when they are available; he tries to keep some shares in play to take advantage of the “wiggles” in the market.

Our goal is to consistently “take money home”-, i.e., put profits into our account. For our money, that’s the best way to win in this challenging game of investing.

 

The 401K nightmare:

The bulk of the working class folks in anything above a burger flipping job has already taken advantage of their companies 401K plan if one is actually offered. So, let’s chat a long while about these things.

I think at this point it’s time for me to do a little speech about 401K’s and some of the issues we’re seeing. Please listen to this audio and then we’ll move on in text..

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Hopefully you listened to the audio about 401K’s so I don’t have to repeat too much of it here in these pages. But what I do want to stress is that IF you have the ability to move your 401K around fairly regularly, let’s say at least 2 times a month, (some are unlimited and can move things daily) I suggest you do.

Now for some brutal honesty. The year 2010 was the first year we didn’t aggressively move ours around much. For the past 16 years we’ve made several moves each year, and the results have been tremendous. On average, we’ve had returns of better than 30% in our 401K and we’ve never had a losing year. Ever.

So, why in 2010 did we stop moving it around in February and just sit in cash? Because we had entered a different time, something never seen before. We have entered a time when the head of the Federal Reserve has admitted he’s propping up the market. If you haven’t read our letters where we have posted the exact wordings, let me just give you one quote..

Bernanke, speaking to an FDIC crowd stated, "Our policies (QE2) have contributed to a stronger stock market just as they did in March 2009 when we did the first iteration of this program."

So there you have it. We have entered a new world, and if you follow the logic it goes like this..

If not for Bernanke supporting the market the market would fall and fall hard. That means the minute Bernanke decides not to support the market, it will fall hard. It also meant that as long as he was indeed going to be printing dollars like a mad man, the ONLY things I felt certain about was that precious metals, materials, and the basic building blocks would rise. They always do when inflation hits. Yet in our silly 401K fund there is no precious metals fund, no pure energy fund, no pure materials fund. I had no access to the only thing I felt confident about. So, I decided to play those areas in my “longer term trading account” which we reveal daily in the Insiders Club.

The problem I had was...would we know if he decided to pull the plug? Since I didn’t know, I felt just fine sitting in the comfy of cash and instead of risking something I can’t move as quickly as a trading account, I used our “longer term trading account” to rack up the gains for the year.

So yes indeed these are different times, and that had us a bit more cautious than usual. But that doesn’t mean we won’t be employing 401K dollars in the future, I am sure we will, so let’s move on to what I see as the biggest “problem” that has hurt the most amount of people.

Here is the problem I see in most 401Ks

I've done a lot of studies on this and what I've found is very disturbing. The average person that starts a 401K plan does so like this:

The company announces that the employee is finally eligible to join the plan. So, the employee sits with the human resources person and reviews the material. In general, a normal 401K plan will have a "family" of stock funds, some bond funds, and some money market funds ( which we consider "cash") that they can split their contributions up into. They talk about their goals and then they make their selections as to how their contributions will be split into the various funds. Then, they walk away.

Forever.

That's right. For the most part 85% of the people I've been able to study simply take the Ron Popeil method which is to "set it and forget it". Well nothing could be more detrimental to your well being than doing that. What that means is this; if the market goes up, you're probably doing well. When the market falls, you're falling with it. If you had done the "set it and forget it" back in 2000, here you are 9 years later and you're probably negative overall. This is a travesty.

Despite the pure B. S. that Wall Street spews every day, buy and hold is long dead. We said it back in 99 and we'll say it again today. Buy and hold is a suckers play, designed to only benefit the fund managers. When stocks go up, doesn't it make sense to be in them? Sure it does. But when stocks go down, does it still make sense? Of course not. Yet just 15% of the people will actively move their money around in the 401K. Why is that?

Some don't know how to do it.

Some are told you can't do it

Some are told you can't time the market

Some are told it's best to leave it alone

Some are told that it's all about the long term

Etc. Etc.

First let me tell you all this. The only person who is really going to give a rats behind about you and your money is, well, you. So, if you don't take an active role in taking charge of your 401K, no one else will. This is the single most important thing I can tell you all. YOU HAVE TO TAKE A HANDS ON APPROACH TO YOUR RETIREMENT FUNDING.

Let's first understand what this is all about. Your company's "plan" will as I said have a handful of stock funds, some bond funds and some money market funds that you can elect to place your weekly contributions into. So, lets suppose you decide that you want to maximize your gains, although that's the most risky and you place 25% of your money to go into the "Future 500" fund which is supposed to be some form of growth fund, and 25% in the "new century go like hell fund" which is supposed to flesh out the best hot prospects for the new age, and the other 50% in a balanced "Global fund" which they tell you seeks out the best emerging market opportunities.

So, you make your selections and go about your business. If the market is hot, like it was from say late 05 through November of 07, Chances are you made a lot of returns. Great returns. You were doing very well for yourself. But, then trouble began. The market had run wild for almost 2 years. It was time for all the excesses to be purged. In a matter of months, stocks were heading lower and your quarterly statements started showing losses. Soon, you went from being up wonderfully, to being down 40%. Ouch.

Did you go online, or call the plan manager and move money out of stocks? Probably not. Did you make a few clicks and move money from stock funds into cash and bond funds? Probably not. Why? Because you've been brainwashed to be in it for the long run. That you can't time the market. That it's best to just "sit". It’s all Hogwash.

It's easy to move your money around in a 401K. A phone call or a click of the mouse allows you to move any percent of your contributions from one fund to another, or from one type fund (say stocks) into another form ( say bonds) . Granted as I talked about in the audio, they seem to be making it a bit harder each year, but even if you can move 2X a month, you should still be able to endorse your gains and minimize the pains. The moment you do, it will stop the bleeding. It might even pan out to be profitable. Just remember this, most 401K's don't have any type of "short funds" where you can make gains while the market is falling, so the best you can usually do is hide in safety in a falling market.

But isn't it better to be in "cash" making almost nothing, than to watch your money disappear?? We think so.

So, here's our philosophy. We won't catch all the gains in a bull market, because we make the market prove itself to us before we move into aggressive stock funds. We miss some of the move. But, we also leave the stock market once it's pretty clear that the ultimate direction is going to be down for a considerable period of time. By just doing that, we've averaged better than 28% a year, since the mid 90's.

Now I’m going to say again, just so you can see I don’t consider myself a know it all or anything else. The economic landscape was so bizarre this year, that I felt my best chances of increasing overall personal wealth was to leave the 401K money alone and use the “longer term trading account” for catching the up trends. Had my 401K had an energy fund, or a basic materials fund or a precious metals fund, I’d have been 50% invested in those 3 all year. Unfortunately I didn’t have that option.

The reason I placed them in the Longer term trading account in the Insiders Club was so that you call could follow along with your 401K if you had those choices. When you see me buying ANR, BTU (coal), JOYG (mining, materials) MEE (coal), RIG (energy) etc etc, if you have those types of funds, it surely paid to mimic our trades in that fund.

The take away from all this is simple folks. It’s YOUR money. Not the companies, not Wall Streets. If you set it and forget it, and you happen to be in all stock funds, you’ll get crushed repeatedly. If you make logical decisions and move it around at what appears to be the appropriate times, you’ll increase your performance. If you do nothing more than make sure all your contributions and your balance is sitting in money market, you won’t gain much, but at least the corrupt Wall street hucksters can’t take any of it.

Start slow, and see how you do. For instance there’s no shame in having 90% of your money in the cash account and then taking 10 percent and putting it in an “aggressive growth” fund while the market is rising. Get the feel for how you did it, get the feel for feeling the trends. At some point you’ll be moving big blocks of your total around.

Note however. There is NEVER a time when I’m 100% in stocks. Ever. I like to keep 20% in cash no matter what. Remember 9/11 when we all woke up to downed buildings and a closed stock market? No thanks...I’ll never let them have control over all the money in there. Even 80% makes me wince. But if you just get it right by using 50% and managing it actively and wisely, you’ll beat the averages each year. No question.

Just as an example, my trading partner and buddy Carl has a 401K plan that does have a materials fund and an energy fund. When we went and hid in cash back in February he put 70% of his money in the Basic material and the energy fund and 30% in cash. Well at the close of 2010 his entire 401K had increased by 31%.

WELL DONE!

Now for some really off the wall ideas. I am NOT telling you to do this, I’m just telling you what sometimes makes sense to ME. We have taken a “loan” against our 401K and used the money to buy silver coin. So, although we technically pay back the money to the plan, the coins we bought at 8 and 12 dollar silver are up 250 to 300%.

Would it be wise to take a loan and do something similar? Would it be wise for some of you to consider closing your entire 401K, taking the penalty and the tax hit, to move it into some distressed real estate? Only you know. But just understand folks, if you’re 40 and you’ve got 25 grand in your 401K, do we even have a clue what this world will look like by the time you’re 65? If there happened to be a piece of property that not long ago was selling for 400K and now you can get it from the bank for 65K in foreclosure, is that a better idea than hoping your 401K is still there in 25 years??

I don’t know the answers to these thing and I repeat so you don’t go and sue me, I’m not telling you to do it. I just know that it’s MY money in that 401K and if I think I can get a better return in silver, or the perfect property, I’ll take the hits, cash out and deploy the money were it suits ME the best, not wall Street or Uncle Sam.

Got all that? Good.

 

Precious Metals.

When I was a kid, I was fascinated by gold, silver and gemstones. I didn’t have anyone in the family connected to the jewelry business; it was just something that I fell into. But even as a young boy, I was attracted to the luster, the shine, the color of the precious metals. Somehow deep inside I just “knew” they held a special value, a value that was centuries old, and in some ways maybe even Godly.

So I became a jeweler. I wasn’t just the guy at the counter trying to sell you something, I went to school for 3 years to learn watchmaking, jewelry design, repair, and then went on to get my GIA certification for rating diamonds and precious gems. I was the guy in the back room that sized your rings, and fixed the necklaces, and set your stones.

So, my appreciation of the metals goes back much much farther than the recent run up in gold and silver. That is something of a bonus for me. But that said, when I read in the bible that from the beginning of time gold, silver and precious stones were mentioned as money, I pretty much figured out that this stuff was going to always have a value. First on the level of being money, and second on the value of its desirability. As the famous lady once said “Diamonds are a girl’s best friend”.

So I was certainly no stranger to gold and silver when the year 2000 rolled around. If you remember, we had just had the tech run up of the late 90’s and the biggest stock market bubble to date. Since I had sold my stores in 1995 and became an active investor, I knew that the bubble had perverted our economic system to the point where some form of collapse was inevitable. So, in early 2000 we started telling our subscribers we were buying gold.

That returned us howls of laughter. People mocked us in a big way since gold had been in a bear market since the big gold bubble of 1980. Yet what I was talking about wasn’t based on bubbles, the greater fool theory or anything else. What I sensed was coming down the pike was an all out implosion of the financial system. Considering that, I had to think...if all hell was indeed going to break loose, what could I do with my money that held the least risk? Gold immediately popped into my head.

Since the days of kings and Solomon gold and silver has always had value. It was seen thousands of years ago as the only true money. Why? It had the seven properties that would make a societal money work. In no particular order they are…

Physically Durable

Easily Divisible

Easily Transferable

Limited in Quantity

Uniform in Quality

Readily Acceptable

Easily Recognized

Gold and silver both fit the bill perfectly. They are durable; they can be divided into rounds, squares, grains etc. They are easy to carry around. There is a very limited quantity of it, so it can’t easily be debased. The quality is perfectly assayable, so that .999 actually means .999 fine. It’s acceptable around the globe, as money ( interestingly, it doesn’t matter if you’re in the jungles of Indonesia, or the Highlands of Scotland or the Rivers of the Amazon, all people of all nations recognize gold. It’s very interesting isn’t it?) Finally, it’s easily recognized for what it is.

So, for 6000 years, gold and its stepsister silver have occupied the space of “money”. But, then came man and his greed, and soon enough he devised ways to get around the fact that with gold there’s “only so much of it”. At first, kings would tell the goldsmiths to “shave off the edges of the coins” thus reducing the weight, and they’d collect the filings and make more coins. Then they got the idea they’d mix some lesser metal in with the gold, making an “alloy”. It still said the same “dollar” amount, but it had less gold in it. Then finally they discarded it and went to paper money. Why? Simple, they could make all of it they wanted.

Now here is the single most important thing for you to understand. In 6000 years there has NEVER been a time when Gold and silver had no value. In 6000 years there has NEVER been a paper currency that survived.

Which one do you want??

As I’m typing this, gold is around 1400 the ounce and silver about 28 the ounce. Now, is it too late to continue to buy? I personally don’t think so, but I feel that at this point silver makes a better investment. Why? Because silver is not only “money” it has manufacturing demand, something gold really does not.

Virtually every ounce of gold ever mined still exists above ground and in use. Whether it’s the hoop earrings in the wife’s jewel box or the wedding band, or the Screaming Eagle coins you happen to have, the gold is still “there”. With silver that’s not true. Each year the technology sector demands more and more of it for cell phones, and radar, and space travel, and computers etc etc. Frankly the fact is that demand has outstripped supply coming out of mines for 35 years.

So, how did it get supplied? We had huge stock piles of it. Coming out of WWII the estimates were that there was 50 billion ounces of it above ground. Now estimates in 2010 say maybe there’s 1 billion left. Between the people buying it as Money, the people buying it as jewelry and the people buying it to continue making solar panels…demand is up up and up.

As the experiment in fiat currency comes to a close, as bernake destroys the dollar, as his printing presses continue to crank out bills.. Silver seems to look like one of the brightest shining stars out there.

So, if you think I’m nuts, you don’t buy any and you keep the tree pulp in your pocket. If you think I’m onto something, how bad could it be to pick up a few silver coins each month…just in case?

Which brings me to the miners. As you all know, we have had a lot of success buying stock in the miners. Yes they’re volatile, yes they can go down. But…when you get it right, like we did with SLW, where we first found it at 3 dollars and it went to 40… there are times when it is a good play.

The “problem” with buying the miner stocks is simple. That silly word “stock” is in there. When the bear markets hit, people sell everything. They don’t take the time to reason that the silver miners are making money; they just know they have a stock and stocks are in a bear market, so they sell. In other words, no matter how good the earnings… mining stocks can indeed be major volatile.

Let’s look however at how silly that might be. Let’s go back to SLW one of my all time favorites. They get their silver for about 4 dollars an ounce. How? They go to gold miners who don’t’ want to run two operations and offer them 4 bucks an ounce for it. So, with silver at 29 they make 25 bucks an ounce. Guess what? They say they’ll sell 40 million ounce of silver in 2013. If the price stays the same they’ll make 1 BILLION dollars.

Yet if the market was to roll over, do you think SLW would be immune? In just the last few weeks it’s fallen from over 40 to 31 dollars. Just normal volatility has taken ten bucks off of it. Imagine a panic. So, although we do like to TRADE the miners, you have to be wary of them. They can go down and down a lot. We find that a combo of buying the miners and having the physical makes the most sense to us and we continue that mantra.

 

Go to Part 4 | Go to Part 6









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