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7.27.2016 - Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

When Worlds Collide
Follow the plot.... Hillary is proven by the FBI to have lied about sending confidential emails. Hillary is proven to have installed an unsecure server. Hillary is proved to have used multiple devices. Hillary it is suggested, might have been hacked. Hillary’s faithful say “move along, there’s nothing to see here.”

Bernie attracts hordes of fairly uneducated but highly emotional young people who think something’s rotten in Denmark. He imparts into their brains that he’s the fine upstanding human that feels their pain and understands how unfair life is. He’s going to show them by example how wonderful Democracy is and that their votes count. By the literal millions, they march arm in arm for their man Bernie. But a problem arises.
The DNC, working with the media, collude to hand the election to Hillary. Then wikileaks dumps 19, 254 emails into the public sphere, showing exact and damning evidence that the DNC was going to appoint Hillary and no matter what Bernie was going to do, they were going to derail him. Bernie then reveals himself to be the shill we all knew he was. Instead of saying to his folks...”See the corruption? See the political machine that makes your votes irrelevant? You’ve all been double crossed by this lying witch, and this political machine. My suggestion is that you either abstain from voting in this crooked casino, or vote for Donald Trump, as he is the man that has warned us for months that the system is rigged”.

But Bernie didn’t say those things. No, he stabbed his people right in the back and after all this, told his folks to vote for Hillary. As you can imagine, his people went apoplectic. They didn’t know what to do, they’d been double crossed by their own hero. The very man that stood in front of them and told them that Hillary is wicked and evil and lying and conniving and rotten to the core...then told them to vote for her.

The DNC; in an effort to try and spin their nefarious acts into something they can use, came up with the plot that it was RUSSIA working with Trump to derail Hillary. Now follow this closely...what they’re trying to sell is NOT that “yeah we did this and it was wrong” but that TRUMP and PUTIN are evil and “they did this to us”.   They are saying that the RELEASE of the emails was the evil, NOT the fact that the emails show absolute collusion, conspiracy and manipulation. That’s how twisted liberals get, it boggles the mind. Worse, some “X” amount of people will go along with that line of thinking. I pray for those people and hope their med’s start to work.

This weekend, during a 60 Minutes interview, Hillary was asked about the DNC's efforts to destroy Bernie Sanders on her behalf. The exchange was edited out of the broadcast version of the Q&A, but it's available via the CBS website. In it she says she had “absolutely no idea about these emails”. Wow, she certainly has a credibility issue concerning emails, no?

Here’s a woman in charge of a political “machine” and now wants you to believe she had no idea her campaign was trying to bury Bernie. Sure. You bet. Sounds a lot like “I never sent or received a classified email on my server” to me.

That’s all fine political theatre, and it really is entertaining. In the very least more and more people are waking up to the idea that all is NOT how it seems and that something’s rotten here. Indeed.

Frauds, manipulations, agenda’s, etc, do not impress me. I’m a market operator, and if you play in the gutters of Wall Street, you’ve seen all these things. They’re a daily event in my area of business. Rigged LIBOR rates? Business as usual. Sold toxic Mortgage backed securities to investors as AAA rated investments while at the SAME time shorting them because you knew they were junk? Pffft, next. Rigged currency exchanges? Sure, doesn’t everyone? Got hit with money laundering? Price of doing business. On and on it goes. I’m numb to it all, whether Wall Street or the White House.

However, there are things that make me nervous. When a Wall Streeter pulls a fraud, usually the only casualty is that someone loses money. In politics, frauds and agenda’s cost people lives. Thousands of them. Naturally I’m talking war, and day after day we appear to be closer to it.

Folks, lets have a gut check here for a minute. I truly want you to understand where I’m coming from. There are NO non corrupt governments. None. Not Japan, not Germany, not Russia, not Sweden, none of them. They all have some versions of agenda driven corruption. The US might even lead the pack. So, when I appear to ...as one Email that was sent to me suggested.... Be in love with Putin, you have to understand the context. ( ps here’s one line from the email.. I don't think you're nuts, I think you dislike Obama and his administration and think that's a reason to like Obama's enemies, like Putin.)

One of the things I’ve mentioned in the past is that a lot of America’s boisterous stance comes from one little fact. Unlike England, Germany, Italy, Russia, Norway,France, Poland, and 25 other nations, WE have never seen the utter destruction of war on our shores. Yes we had a civil war and it proved we could kill each other pretty damn well. But we’ve never had bombers drop incendiary bombs on our cities. We’ve never had nuclear bombs go off on our towns. We’ve never had tanks rolling through NY, blowing up buildings, churches and bridges. We’ve never had the horror of nighttime air raids, night after night after night. We’ve never had our food cut off or died from wartime starvation. It’s a privilege most don’t understand they have.

Russia on the other hand has seen such horrors and then some. On June 22, 1941, Nazi Germany and its Axis allies began a massive invasion of the Soviet Union named Operation Barbarossa -- some 4.5 million troops launched a surprise attack deployed from German-controlled Poland, Finland, and Romania. Hitler had long had his eye on Soviet resources. Although Germany had signed a non-aggression pact with the USSR in 1939, both sides remained suspicious of one another, and the agreement merely gave them more time to prepare for a probable war. Within a single week, German forces advanced 200 miles into Soviet territory, destroyed nearly 4,000 aircraft, and killed, captured, or wounded some 600,000 Red Army troops.

By the end of this, one of the largest, deadliest military operations in history, More than 800,000 Soviets had been killed, and an additional 6 million Soviet soldiers had been wounded or captured
By the end of WWII Kosyk gives 2.5 million military and 4.5 million civilian deaths or a total loss of 7 million for Ukraine. Other losses in World War II: Poland 5 (or 6) million, Japan 2.36 million, Yugoslavia 1.7 million, France 600,000, Italy 500,000, Romania 500,000, Greece 450,000, Hungary 430,000, Great Britain 350,000, Czechoslovakia 340,000, Austria 374,000, USA 300,000, Holland 210,000, Finland 100,000, Belgium 88,000 and Canada 42,000. Byelorussia lost 2,198,000 civilians. Russia, lost 1,781,000 civilians and about 3 to 4 million military or about 5 to 6 million total according to Kosyk.
When you look at those figures, and you see the photo’s of the bombed out towns, the great works in ruins, the abject horror of so many millions dead, don’t forget this happened just 75 years ago. Not even an “old” person’s lifetime.

This is why I have respect and understanding for Putin. His people know what war is like. He has tried to keep his borders safe, while not running around the world playing nation builder as we seem so intent to do. While many will argue the whole Ukraine thing with me, if you forget the main stream push to call Putin the bad guy aggressor, and look at 500 years of Russian/Ukraine history, you see that they have had a push/pull relation for many years. But the fact is... that if Putin really wanted Ukraine, it would be his by 6 pm tonight.

NATO has been pushing closer and closer to Russia’s borders. This is undeniable. Well, considering NATO is ruled by the US, the only way they could do that is if WE want them to. This isn’t to contain an “aggressive” Putin, don’t be so foolish. If Putin wanted to be aggressive, he’d own Poland Ukraine, and Estonia before lunch. So why then are we doing it?

Mikhail Gorbachev - the eighth and last leader of the Soviet Union, said: “Nato has begun preparations for escalating from the Cold War into a hot one. “All the rhetoric in Warsaw just yells of a desire almost to declare war on Russia. They only talk about defence, but actually they are preparing for offensive operations.”

The real winners are Western arms manufacturers who are making a killing. According to The Nation, spending on the Pentagon’s “European Reassurance Initiative” will increase from $789 million in 2016 to $3.4 billion in 2017. That’s big money for Boeing, Raytheon, Northrup Gruman, Lockheed Martin and a host of other weapons merchants looking for an enemy big enough to justify such expenditures. ISIS and Al Qaeda just won’t cut it.

So let’s bring this back to the Presidential elections. Hillary was in Government during Libya and Syria. From 2009 to 2013, she was overseeing the department that conducted the foreign policy of the Obama administration. Now we see her running for the big office. Along the way she’s lied to the American people about her emails. She’s lied about Benghazi. She’s lied to us about the DNC derailing Bernie.

Do you suppose Putin figures she’s lying about NATO too? Do you think he can trust her, when WE can’t even trust her? I truly believe he wants no part of war. But I also believe that the Russian people are tired of the US trying to make them lap dogs. I think they see Hillary as a war monger. I agree.

This Election certainly has global implications. As you’re trying to determine who’d be better in office, don’t just think about jobs, and our economy. Think big picture. Who’s got a better chance of keeping our sons and daughters from being cannon fodder on some far off battlefield? Hillary does NOT come to my mind. Just sayin.

The Market....

Monday and Tuesday were both sluggish days for the market, despite the hundreds of earnings reports coming at us. Monday we lose some S&P points, Tuesday they eeked it into the green by a fraction and today we spent the first 4 hours of the session in the red. But of course you have to keep it in context. Seeing the S&P down 7 points at 1 pm, is a statistical error in a 2160 market. It’s.. nothing.

But the big news is always “free money” and we started today by learning Japan was going to whip up about 365 billion more in stimulus, and that’s even before the Bank of Japan tells us what they’re going to do on Friday. So they liked that. But it was also “FED” day here in the states. So everyone was waiting on the results of the Two day Fed meeting that would end at 2 pm.

When the statement hit at 2 pm, it was a lot of the same boiler plate we’d heard before but there was a bit of a change. They said that some of the near term risks have diminished. They said the labor market was strong and the economy was expanding at a moderate pace.
The initial move was a big of a dip in the market as the algo’s read this to mean they’re closer to a rate hike. Then a bit of a move up and then right back to where we were just ahead of the statement. It took them a while to chew on it, then finally figured “oh what the hell” and by 2:30 the DOW was green by 30 and the S&P was flirting with green.

But when the final bell rang, we were slightly red across the board. The DOW off 1 the S&P off 2. After the close we got another barrage of earnings and the headliner was Facebook who completely crushed it. They did really well, and were up 7 bucks after hours.
So what now? Up. We go up. Again. They’ll use the earnings in FB to make it seem like all is well with the world. Then, don’t forget they’re all looking forward to Friday when the Bank of Japan might toss more QE into the mix.

I said Sunday that I thought we might see some backing and filling and we have seen some Fade on Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. Now I think they’ll dig in and try and get those points back. I think we rise some tomorrow. Then on Friday we’ll need to be cautious. If the BOJ doesn’t splurge with more stimulus, they’ll pout over that. If they do...we’ll see new highs again.

What a crazy world! Take care I’ll see you all on Sunday.

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