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11.9.2016 - Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Trump
 
This isn’t news. Everyone on the planet knows that Donald Trump has won the US election. So let’s talk about that for a bit, because.... There’s a lot to it.
 
I was one of so many, that stayed up for the entire show. Sarasota is a big Republican county. I was invited to the Republican "victory" party last night. As the results continued to come in, there was the ups and downs as the maps and the numbers wobbled around. The thing I found most interesting is that it wasn't full of middle aged white men. There were tens of dozens of 20 something women. There were tens of dozens of college age men. There were Asians and blacks and Hispanics.  Talk about a melting pot...it was incredible.  I didn’t hit the sack until  3, and those that know me, know I’m not a late night person. So please bear with me if I run off the rails a bit here.  However, I’ll try and stay on track.

 
The left is in shock. This morning the twitter feeds, the news stations and the facebook pages were all populated with people asking "how could the polls have been so wrong, what did they miss?" They just couldn’t understand how all those polls showing Hillary winning, got it so wrong. Well here’s why folks, the polls were not real. As I’ve been telling you for months now, you need to look at the “anecdotal” evidence.
For months, Donald would run rallies and he’d get 10K, 15K, 22,000 people. Hillary would hold a rally and even with Bon Jovi and Springstein on stage they could barely get 10K. Then I’d look at the video’s. Trumps speeches would have a million views. Hillary’s couldn’t break 100K. Every where I looked, from yard signs to you name it, you could tell that the polls were baloney.
 
And that’s the point. The polls didn’t get it wrong because of poor analysis. The polls were MADE UP to give the illusion that she was a forgone winner, and Trump people should just give up. It was a psy-op, designed to keep Trump people home. Why go to vote, if she’s obviously going to win?  But it didn’t work. Too many people saw the Trump crowds, saw the on line “likes” and decided it was baloney.
 
The ”little guys” across America, little people that worked all their lives for the American dream were simmering.  Tired of the hypocrisy, tired of Obama care, tired of the lies, tired of the wars, tired of a two tiered justice system, tired of Hollywood, tired of instigating racism, tired of job losses, tired of everything.  And they said "stop!"
 
But there’s a major twist to this story folks. Hillary didn’t lose because there’s a lack of compassion in the US. She didn’t lose because Republicans are mean nasty people that are racist, homophobic, and redneck.  How quickly you forget that the US elected a BLACK MAN, and gave him TWO terms. Middle America has bit their tongue through 30 years of stagnant wages. Bit their lip through Republican and Democrat Presidents, all promising the rainbow. They’re used to hearing how great things will be and being disappointed.  Hillary didn’t lose because of that.

Hillary lost in a large part because instead of simply doing all the “wonderful” things she likes to talk about, such as raising people up and doing what’s right for the Country, she left a trail of nefarious deeds that went back 30 years.  And guess what? It was presented front and center.....NOT by our journalists. Not by our news anchors. Not by the Main Stream Media...it was plopped in our lap by HACKERS.
 
It was a Hacker called Gucifer that let the world know she was running an illegal email server. It was an organization called Wikileaks that produced 45,000 emails of her campaign, many of which showing truly ugly wrong doings. It was video production via Project Veritas that showed her “people” doing illegal things to get her elected.  It was “leaks” about the Clinton Foundation that proved she had taken a million from Qatar and not disclosing it. Or using the Foundation to pay for Chelsea’s wedding.
 
Then, the icing on the cake was Comey. So many people thought that Comey stabbed us in the back by not going forward to bring the Email Server to Lynch, that it was overwhelming. But as I’ve said from day one, Comey was THE ONLY ONE that took the info learned from the hackers, turned it into an investigation and TOLD the American people Basicall..... “okay folks, here it is. I can’t go forward to the DOJ with this because they’ll just lock it all down as Evidence.  She lied to you, she lied to Congress. She said she had no classified emails, but she did. She told us there was one device, there was 13, etc.”

In other words Comey’s only way to “let the people” decide who Hillary really is, was to do it the way he did. He couldn’t go to the Press, they’d bury it. He couldn’t go to the Attorney General, she’d have buried it. So, he came to YOU...the people.
 
All those “little people” that have been punished harshly for petty crimes went nuts. All those people that have lived within the law, saw first hand from the HEAD of the FBI that there’s rules for Hillary and different rules for the peon’s. And that anger simmered and simmered. The US, that “shining beacon on the Hill” had become a nation with no rule of law. We were a banana republic. 
 
THAT is what got Trump the win. He told the people the polls were rigged. They were. He told the people that Hillary was Guilty, she was. He told the people that he understands how screwed they’ve been by the Establishment. He told the people that he understands that “undocumented” means Illegal. All the things the little people cared about, Trump responded to. The little people aren’t bigots and racists. The things they care about like jobs, ILLEGALS, Crime, constant wars, rule of law, etc. is what they wanted fixed. Instead, Hillary continued to call them Deplorables.
 
All the anger that poured out via way of electing Trump had NOTHING to do with racism. It had NOTHING to do with Islamophobia. It had NOTHING to do with degrading women. That’s not what the voters were about. The voters were about “can’t we just get some form of honest Government that listens to us, the little people??” Well Trump Promised that and he won. Hillary did not promise them that, she’s had 30 years to give it to them and... well,  “it ain’t here.” 
 
Listen folks, Trump can’t do all the marvelous things he’s said he’s going to do. But here’s what I think he can do. First he can keep the remaining seats of the Supreme Court from going socialist.  The Communist Manifesto that was released back in 1960 has already been 85% completed right here in the States. He can stop that from moving forward.  He can protect the 2nd amendment. Hillary was on record many times talking about how the Supreme Court was wrong on the Heller case, and that she’d find a way to make gun manufacturers liable for harm done by sociopaths with drug problems.  I think he will absolutely reach out to Putin, and ask to work together, instead of goading us into WWIII.
 
I also think Trump will throttle the IRS. He’s tired of being audited, and will probably put an end to them being used like some form of mafia. If he can just save the Supreme Court, get rid of this disaster called Obama care, get the IRS out of conservative’s hair, he’s already done more than Hillary would or could.
 
Am I happy he pulled this off? Absolutely.  But I’m also a realist. The “Establishment” isn’t just going to go off and crawl into some hole, never to be seen again. Sorry. There’s years of crony deals, years of back scratching, and trillions of dollars in the “old boy” network. They are NOT going to give up so easily. If you thought the election was a grueling dog fight, I suspect we’re in for something even bigger.
 
I don’t’ know what they have up their sleeve. But they aren’t finished. The one that scares me most is some form of false flag, where we blame Russia for say downing a couple of our jets in Syria, and they hasten a hot war.  No one in history has ever been attacked by so many people from citizens, to politicians, to the media, to “old Europe” to you name it ...as Donald Trump. Am I to believe they just “stop?”  I do not.  So enjoy the victory, but let’s not let things go to our heads. There’s MUCH work to do.
 
The Market....

My guess was that if Trump won the immediate reaction would be a very fast severe plunge, and then a bounce. Well that happened.  However what I got totally wrong was “When” they’d plunge us!
 
As it was becoming clearer that Trump would win, the overnight futures kept falling and falling. By 2 am, the DOW was lock limit down at -800 points. The S&P down 100. But then “magic” happened. The futures started to improve and by 8 am, they were down just 250. Then by 9 they were down just100.
The market opened a bit red and bounced up to green. Then sagged back red for a bit and then finally “took off”. We had the DOW up some 175 points and the S&P up 20 shortly after 1 pm. By 3 we were up 300! What was that all about? 
 
This will sound ugly, but it’s true. Just because Trump was elected, it doesn’t stop Wall Street from doing “funny” things. They let the enormous drop and then the recovery take place in the futures market in the middle of the night. That’s when the “average” people are in bed. Joey Blow and Mary Sue don’t play futures at 3 am.

By bringing the market flat for the open, they cut out the gigantic profits that people who had played a “straddle” would have enjoyed. If the market had been open for the 800 point fall, people could have realized 400 and 500% gains on their put options. So... they didn’t let that happen.

Now, when I’m wrong I’m wrong. I certainly got today wrong. I make no excuses. I expected the 800 point market drop today and Tomorrow, and then a major “dead cat” bounce. Instead they did it in the overnight futures market, and then today went to work buying stocks.  Was today “real?”  You bet it was, we saw volume we haven’t seen in a long long time.

Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying we blast higher day after day. In general, after a 265 point up  day the market takes a bit of a pause and that’s probable now. But it is clear that all the bunk we’ve heard about how a Trump win would be bad for the market, was baloney. What could be bad about cutting taxes, cutting regulations and helping small business? 
 
Our only question was... would the market “punish” people for having the audacity to vote in an anti-establishment person? That was a pretty rational fear, considering how many times Trump hit Hillary for being a “friend” of Wall Street.  But no...it’s apparent that they weren’t about to punish the peons for voting him in. ( Yet)  The other “issue” was... yes we had a major up day, but is this the start of a new trend, or, is this a lure to draw people in for a rug pull? 
 
I’m on record for saying that I think the market is going to be considerably lower next year. I still believe that. While all the things Trump says he’s for are indeed great things, there’s an awful lot of structural issues that must be dealt with.
Let’s say I’m cautiously optimistic that we can see the market make some more gains from here, and I’m all for tagging along for the ride. I just don’t think I’m convinced yet. There’s a reason those futures were down 800 points last night, and those reasons didn’t mystically disappear. So folks... be optimistic, but cautious.  I’ll see you all on Sunday. 
 

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