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5.3.2017 - Free Investment Newsletter Bookmark

Trump, the Mystery
Did you all read the Sunday letter where I quoted Mr. Assad on his view of Donald Trump? If not, I’ll just pull out a couple quotes to get you up to speed:

Trump is puppet of US ‘deep state,’ has no ‘own’ foreign policy
US president Donald Trump is not a truly independent political leader but merely a puppet of US corporations, military and intelligence, and who serves their interests
Trump pursues “no own policies” but only executes the decisions made by the “intelligence agencies, the Pentagon, the big arms manufacturers, oil companies, and financial institutions.
The United States always seeks to control all the states of the world without exception. It does not accept allies, regardless of whether they are developed states as those in the Western bloc or other states of the world,”
And so it goes on and on. Now, judging by the email’s I got concerning that letter, sure enough it was split about 60/40. About 60% of the feedback was aligned with Assad. “Trump’s an insider, that played everyone. He’s flipped on every promise he made to us, and he makes me sick”- was one in particular.
But there were others.  “Bob, don’t sway, he’s playing the swamp game to get his real program through. I admit some of it looks bad but you will see it all work out” - was another that came through.
So just what is it? I’ll be the very first to say I’m ON THE FENCE about a lot of this.  For instance when he followed the ridiculous story that Assad has gassed his own people, I wanted to vomit. Everyone and his brother knows that he did NOT do that. But Trump went along with it and launched a bunch of missiles to blow up sand.  I was livid. Here he was on TV talking about the “babies, the darling babies” and used that as his excuse to put Assad in his place.

Yet... that’s all he did. He didn’t invade. He called the Russians ahead of time. The so-called air base was evacuated. He didn’t even blow up the runways. So other than lie about the reason why he did it...he didn’t really do much. Except get every war hawk and Neocon that loves bombing things... to love him. Instantly the “He’s a Russian agent” thing went away. Instantly he looked “tough” on the world stage. Democrats called him “Presidential”. Was that his plan? Did he pull a non event, to get himself some political clout? 
So, let me tell you folks, I’m on a knife edged fence here. Either this guy was the best salesman I have ever seen, knew how to play on every Patriotic heart like God’s own angel, and is really just the purest of two faced evil...or there’s something bigger in play.
On one hand he lied, or was taken over the by war hawks on Syria. Yet he announced to the NRA that you have no worries about your 2nd amendment and got Gorsuch on the bench. That’s a relief.  On one hand he has enacted more EO’s that make sense from a business perspective than any President I’ve lived through, but on the other hand, he’s hell bent on encircling Russia with NATO.
In other words, he’s “apparently” flipped on many of the things he said while campaigning. He said NATO was obsolete. Now he’s loving them ( as long as they pay more) and parking them on Russia’s doorstep. Then he said we shouldn’t interfere in other Countries. Then he lob’s missiles at Syria. Then he said he was going to drain the swamp, but brings in the Alligators of Goldman Sachs. On and on it goes.
Yet, yet... He’s done 50 things I never thought I’d see in my lifetime. Here’s just a short list:
PREVENTION OF HUMAN TRAFFICKING: This executive order doubles down on preventing human trafficking


Protecting whistleblowers at the VA - this executive order makes it easier for vets to blow the whistle on the VA health system
Dismantling Obama's climate change protections - This executive order reduces the EPA burdens on the energy and manufacturing sectors and makes mining and drilling easier by removing red tape.
Reviewing the waters of the United States rule - This executive order is to undo the EPA's clean water rule, and get the EPA out of the lives of private property owners.
NOTE>> Did you guys know that in a lot of state's it's illegal for you to capture rain water? Or that if maps show there was a creek on your property 100 years ago that long went dry, it’s still a waterway and subject to the waterway acts?
Combating criminal organizations - This executive order makes it easier to deport illegals who are criminals.
For every new regulation proposed, repeal two existing ones - This executive order states that for every one regulation the executive branch proposes, two must be identified to repeal. It also caps the spending on new regulations for 2017 at $0.
National School Choice Week - This Presidential Proclamation was aimed at getting people to demand school voucher programs that will allow them to use federal funds to put their kids in private schools when the state schools are failing.
Expediting environmental review for infrastructure projects - This executive order allows those in charge of infrastructure projects to cut through red tape more quickly and simply get them done, rather than quibble about "endangered blue spotted toe snails."
Review of designations under the Antiquities act - This executive order seeks to reverse the process of tying up American federal lands under layers and layers of red tape to prevent them from being used for their resources. It will reverse many restrictions that were perceived by many Americans to have been put in place by enemies of the United States while Americans helplessly watched, saying "Why did they do that"
NOTE>> That item goes back to an article I wrote in the early 2000's. The EPA was created right at the time Nixon took us off the Gold standard. The premise sounded good to the people, an agency to clean up our air and water. Well that was only half the agenda. The other half was to "entomb" a ton of our resources. In a backhand way, our natural resources were locked down as a form of collateral so that our dollar had value after coming off the gold standard.
Repealing the lead bullet ban that screwed up so many of the Nations hunters.
On an on I could go. So again you have some tremendously “good” things being pushed, while some tremendously bad and dangerous things being pushed. So what’s the bottom line here?
Some think that the day after the inauguration, Trump was pulled aside and literally threatened by the deep state. Some think that because he’s surrounded by Jewish people with deep roots to Israel, he’s been told to do Israel’s bidding. Some think he was literally drugged. Some think he’s playing along with the Deep state to get his agenda’s through, but then will reverse and upend the deep state.
What do you think?  I’m still not sure what to think. Right now, the opinion I have is one that’s probably not terribly popular, but it fits the scene.  From day one I said “Trump didn’t just wake up one day and say , hey I think I’ll try this President thing”. No this was in the works for a long time. He was courted by big powers, to give up his lavish billionaire life and go through the mud to be President. But for what?  If it was just to follow along the deep state, they’ve have “made sure” Hillary won.
But what if the deep state had different plans? What if alongside traipsing around the world doing nation building and land grabs...they realized that all that is for naught if our own country folds economically? What if they wanted someone who could try and fix the real ills of this Nation, while continuing the lunacy of our foreign policy?  If that was their intention... then Trump’s doing exactly what he was picked for.
I can almost see the conversation.

Deep state: Donald, we told you we could make it happen and now you’re the Pres.

Trump: Yes you did and I can’t wait to fix things.

Deep state:  Uhm, about all that fixing...you go right ahead and put machinists back to work. You get the economy going. You work out trade deals with nations to get America going You do all that you want. In fact we selected you to be President, because the truth is our country is hanging by a thread. 50% of our people live paycheck to paycheck. We’re the strongest country on earth...that’s going belly up. We picked you to fix some of that.
But...as far as our wars go, and our blueprint for American Hegemony around the world... that’s off limits.
Trump: Why?

DS: Because we are joined at the hip with Israel. Our foreign policy has to include their best interests too. We know what’s best for them and the Middle East, and oil,  and you’re not allowed to interfere.  The US dollar is the reserve currency and the alignment of Russia with China and the Asian “silk road” is challenging that. We can’t let them get their way. Basically “WE” must rule the world. 
Trump: I’m going to look stupid flipping on my stance of not getting involved in places like Syria.

DS: Don’t sweat it. Americans are gullible. Talk about the horror of gassed babies, and they’ll let you nuke Syria. In fact, do something like lobbing missiles at Syria and we’ll have OUR media tell the world how great you are. How “Presidential” you are. Just make Joey Blow’s life a little better with a pay raise, make it look like you’re doing something about the Illegal’s and you’ll be their hero.
Trump: This President thing is harder than I thought.
That about sums up what I’m seeing. He’s got free reign to play in the American sandbox, but he’s being told to stay out of foreign policy.  My only question was “when” was he told about staying out of foreign policy? I think he really did believe he was being honest on the campaign trail when he was saying we need to stay out of other nations problems, I really do. But I think that on day one of his real Presidency...he was shown “how it’s gunna be”.  Maybe they have stuff they can black mail him with. Maybe his family was threatened some how. Maybe “who knows?”  but something changed.
I’m not willing to say he “flipped” on the foreign policy stuff, because I don’t know the reason for the flip. If that was his plan all along, then he’s just another scumbag. But if he was truly threatened with something... well, it doesn’t make it good but it’s understandable.
I’m open to anyone’s opinion if you want to write in and tell me. I’ve read a ton of opinions on both sides of the coin. He’s a traitor, no, he’s playing 3D chess... he’s I’m open to anyone’s opinion if you want to write in and tell me. I’ve read a ton of opinions on both sides of the coin. He’s a traitor, no...he’s playing 3D chess, He’s compromised, no, he’s ruled by Kushner, he’s this , he’s that. What’s your opinion?
The Market...
Boring is the first word that comes to mind.  Last Monday and Tuesday, the market put in two back to back monster up days and pushed things right up tight to the all time highs. But then we spent the next five sessions trading sideways and slightly lower. 

Tuesday night they were hopeful for a giant earnings report out of AAPL, but that didn’t happen. Of course they did “well” they’re AAPL. But their phone sales weren’t as good as people hoped and instead of a 10 dollar stock price jump, they actually fell by about 4 bucks a share.
Today was “Fed” day. Today the two day FOMC meeting on monetary policy would wrap up and they’d announce their decisions. Well, with no help out of AAPL, the market was pretty soggy heading into that report at 2 pm. At times we had the DOW off 40 points and the S&P down another 6. But, when the report did come out, they appeared to be much more “dovish” than everyone feared. Instantly the market perked up and the DOW went green for the first time in hours.
From there it was a cat and dog fight between red and green on the DOW, although the S&P never made it to the green. When the final bell rang, the DOW had eeked out an 8 point gain. The S&P remained red by 3.
After the bell, Tesla lost 1.33 per share on their earnings report, however their revenues seemed to beat by a smidge. So in one of those twisted situations, TSLA was up 2 bucks after the report. How do you lose a buck thirty a share, burn through a billion dollars per year, and be a 314 dollar stock? Ask Amazon.
But Tesla is more of a cult stock than something the Street really uses as a benchmark. However Facebook is, and they reported at 4:15. They apparently beat the revenues by a bit, and active users were up. But there was a bit of confusion over their earnings per share. Coming in at 1.04, was that a beat? They say estimates were for 87 cents, but there were other estimates out there. The confusion seemed to come via “GAAP: vs Non GAAP.  Evidently they did beat.
The irony here is that Facebook was trading 2 dollars lower on their report, despite beating on the top and botton....while Tesla was up 2 bucks and won’t make a dime, maybe...ever.
So what’s it mean? We’ve been trading sideways, bumping up against the all time highs now and then, but not getting the final push to break us out. Anticipation of earnings didn’t do it. AAPL didn’t do it. Is Facebook going to do it? And if not...just what does this market have to look forward to as a catalyst to get that final push? Earnings will be winding down soon enough, the next move out of the Fed will probably be a hike, and we’re entering the summer “doldrums”. 
It’s my guess that if they don’t bust us up and over those all time highs really soon...we might have to wait for the fall. But, I’m not silly enough to think they’ll give up trying. They’ve ignored everything under the sun to keep us within spitting distance of those highs. Not N.Korea, not missiles in Syria, not falling retail sales, not falling auto sales, a sub 1% GDP, nothing. So if they’ve been willing to keep the market up in the face of all that, I’m sure they can find some silly excuse to try one more time for the brass ring.
However it’s something of a frustrating time.  Typically you want a “trending’ market before taking on swing trades. If it’s trending up, and you hop into a good looking stock based on the chart, you’ve got a better chance of having a successful trade. But when the trend is sideways and choppy, it leads to a lot of “one day wonders” where the stock pops nice, maybe even breaks out, and then the next day it goes red.
So the bottom line is we’re “waiting” for something. Anything. I don’t care if we break out or break down...just give us a direction and stick with it for a while!  As far as the short term goes... we have the jobs report on Friday, and if it’s not way out of whack, it should be a non event. I’m thinking that they might try and use FB as an excuse to at least try and snag the highs again tomorrow. Let’s see how they do.

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