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11.1.2017 - Free Newsletter Bookmark

Hope for the Best
 
I’ve said this a few times in various newsletters of the past.  The fact is, that your entire existence is reliant on other people. Without the drilling, there’s no oil, no gas. Without the electric company, there’s no power. Without the farmers, there’s no food. Without the town/county most would have no water. On and on it goes. Where would you get rope or a rubber band, or a piece of wire, or a new knife, if “someone else” didn’t make it? While you seem to be independent, you are connected to the system at the hip.  We’re like one huge organism, and each part of it interacts with other parts to keep the whole thing alive.

 
The following is from Paul Craig Roberts. Let’s give it a read:
One Day Tomorrow Won’t Arrive
 
Paul Craig Roberts
 
Before the idiots in Washington get us blown off of the face of the earth, the morons had better come to terms with the fact that the US military is now second class compared to the Russian military.

For example, the US Navy has been made obsolete by Russia’s hypersonic maneuvering Zircon missile.

For example, the speed and trajectory changes of the Russian Sarmat ICBM has nullified Washington’s ABM system. One Sarmet is sufficient to take out Great Britain, or France, or Germany, or Texas. It only takes a dozen to wipe out the United States.

Why don’t you know this?

For example, Washington’s enormously expensive F-35 jet fighter is no match whatsoever for Russian fighters.
 
For example, US tanks are no match for Russian tanks.For example, Russian troops are superior in their combat readiness and training and are highly motivated and not worn out by 16 years of pointless and frustrating wars over no one knows what.

If the US ends up in a catastrophic war with a militarily superior power, it will be the fault of Hillary Clinton, the DNC, former CIA director John Brennan and the military/security complex, the presstitute media, and the American liberal/progressive/left, which, made completely stupid by Identity Politics, has allied with neoconservative warmongers against President Trump and prevented Trump from normalizing relations with Russia.

Without normal relations with Russia, nuclear Armageddon hangs over us like the sword of Damocles.

Do you not agree that it is outrageous, astounding, inexcusable, inexplicable, reckless and irresponsible that the Democratic Party, the print and TV media, the military/security complex that is supposed to protect us, and the liberal/progressive/left are working hand in glove to destroy the human race?
Why is there so much opposition to normalizing relations with a nuclear power? Why did even the Greens jump on the anti-Trump propaganda bandwagon. Don’t the Greens understand the consequences of nuclear war?
Why is there such a crazed, insane effort to eject a president who wants to normalize relations with Russia?

Why are these questions not part of the public discourse?

The failure of political leadership, of media, of the intellectual class in America is total.

The rest of the world must find some means of quarantining Washington before the evil destroys life on earth.
 
Bob Again... What Roberts is talking about right there, is probably the single biggest nightmare the earth faces. Not a person reading this letter has the ability to stop WWIII if the warmongers want it. But worse, the world is saturated with Nukes.
 
We, meaning you and I, can only go about our daily business if indeed the madmen at the top of the food chain don’t do something stupid. Just like we rely on the power company for electric, we rely on the politicians and Generals to keep us out of world wars and nuclear exchanges.  Well here’s a question, how much do you trust their judgement?
 
I personally detest the idea that there’s not a damned thing I can do about it if some rogue idiot decides to get suicidal and launch nukes somewhere. I shudder at the fact that by an  “accident” a chain of events could unfold that leads us to nuclear Armageddon.
 
But Roberts real question, and one that every American should be asking themselves is this:  Is Russia the big bad boogie man that we are constantly told they are? Are they planning some form of takeover of the US? Have they spread around the world with hundreds of Military bases like we have? Have they invaded other nations?  Have they denied helping Europe or the US against terror? Are they nation building and toppling leaders?
 
As you know the answer to most of that is no. Are they planning some form of takeover of the US? Well, if so, they’re doing it pretty stealthy, because it sure isn’t apparent. Yet we are worked to a fever pitch, that Russia is hiding in every corner, waiting to annihilate Europe, etc.
 
We have sanctioned his country and his people. We have moved military to his doorstep. We have blamed him for everything from fixing elections to God knows what. Yet what have they done in response? A big fat nothingburger. They have not bombed Europe, they have not sunk our ships, they have not built more military bases in other nations.
 
Call me crazy, but again, unless there’s really deep things going on that I’ve not seen, for the most part Russia looks like it just wants to be Russia, and trade with the rest of the world. While I understand Putin was KGB and all that, from what I’ve seen in the past 12 years, he’s tried to be more friend than foe to the world, and we simply keep poking him/them in the eye. One day that big old bear might just snap back and that right there is the issue. The more we push him, blame him, sanction him, hurt his people, the more we antagonize them, and make people believe they’re the evil empire...the closer we get to one of those monster mistakes.
 
I’m with Roberts. Let’s chill on the blame Russia for everything endless attacks. Why not reach out across the pond, do business together, work as a team instead of enemies?  If you have nukes and I have nukes, the best war is no war. So why not tip a vodka or two, and do business instead?
 
I think we know the answer. The military industrial hawks need the tensions, so they can continue to play with their multi million dollar toys. But it’s a dangerous game they play, one that all of us will regret if it goes wrong. Between North Korea, and Russia, one mistake and we all pay.   Hope and pray for the best.
 
The Market:
 
Monday was a digestion day after a pretty big up day back on Friday. Tuesday was another day where they simply digested the big up day, but didn’t have much desire to really pile in.
 
What I did find interesting was that on Tuesday afternoon, there was the terrorist event in NYC. In years gone by that sort of thing would have knocked the futures for a loop. But in 2017, with Central bank money galore, the globe took it in stride. Japan was green, when Europe opened they were green, and our futures at 6 am, were up over 100 on the DOW.
 
Sure enough we opened really big with the DOW up 135 in moments. But why? The only answer was the continuing momentum, and the fact that yes it was a new month, which often brings in new money.
 
But today was “Fed” day, the day we’d get the statement from the Federal Reserve concerning their view of the economy, and where rates should be. So after the big run at the open, we stalled out and in fact the NASDAQ went from being up 30 to being down 30.  We saw the DOW fall from + 135 to up just 24. The S&P from up 11 to up just 4.
 
The Fed’s statement was the same cookie cutter baloney we get every two months. The economy is growing, inflations’ not at their target, and they feel good about targeting more rate hikes in a controlled manner.  The market didn’t even budge on the news.
 
So, after another couple of hours of wiggling around, we ended the day about where we were ahead of the Fed’s. The DOW gained 59, the S&P got 4, and the NASDAQ couldn’t get green. It lost 11.
 
The “problem” is that the small caps (IWM) started the day big, and then did a major face plant, ending  the day down almost a buck. The Advance/decline line was almost even. All in all, there’s a lot of headwinds pushing against this market. But, we always have to remember, it’s 2017 and the world is still printing money like mad.
 
Could tomorrow end the bull run? Sure. Just like any day last month, or any day next month could. But we sure can’t “bet” on it. Every time this thing looks finally ready for a good correction, they simply drive it higher.
 
After the bell Facebook beat on the top and bottom line. That could be the catalyst that simply sends this market soaring higher again.  So, like the proverbial broken record, we have to lean long into this, until it doesn’t work any more. Again, that could be tomorrow, or next January. We simply don’t know. What we do know is that we’ve got seasonality behind us, we’ve got Central banks printing, we’ve got fund managers chasing, and it is very hard to think that this month won’t be green.
 
Lean long and stay alert. It’s all we can do.

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