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2.28.2018 - Free Investment Newsletter Bookmark

Here’s My Issue
 
Yeah, this is about guns again. If you’re an “anti” gun person then I’m sure what you’re seeing with these companies distancing themselves from the NRA is probably making you quite happy. I’m sure that seeing Dicks Sporting announcing that they’re no longer selling “assault” rifles is tickling you. But I do think you’re missing the bigger point here.

 
This is NOT about trying to save lives. Please, even if you think guns are the worst thing that mankind ever created and you wish they were all abolished, just understand that this push is not about saving lives. That’s a great soundbite, and it’s the perfect tag line for the 6pm news. But please, if the agenda was to save lives, they’d be going after HANDGUNS.
 
Hand guns kill 19X more people than rifles. In fact a LOT of things kill more people than rifles. I just did a 10 second google search and the question I asked was “what kills more people, rifles or handguns” The very first response was an FBI site from 2011. That’s fine, I don’t need todays or last years, any year will do.

So what’s it say? In 2011 there was 12,664 murders that year. Of that number, 8,583 was done with “firearms”. But guess what? Of the 8,583 people killed with a “firearm”, 6,220 were killed with a handgun.
 
Guess how many were killed with a rifle? 323. In fact shotguns, like your Uncle buck might use for hunting ducks killed more than rifles, coming in at 356. But wait, it gets better. Knives killed 1,636 people. Did you get that? Handguns killed 6,220. Knives killed 1,636 people. “Fists” and “feet” were responsible for 726 murders. In fact the only thing that killed less people that rifles was poison, fire, and tossing people out a window.
 
In Chicago, we’re only through TWO months of the year and we’re now up to 67 shot and killed. Guess what? 96% of them were handguns. So, since rifles are less than 2% of the total of all people killed with a firearm, can you explain to me why this insane witch hunt concerning AR15’s? Why aren’t they on the news 24/7 screaming about handguns? It’s easy really. It is very easy to sway a population that is increasingly distant from using or even understanding weapons, by showing them “scary looking Military” AR’s. 

See, if they posted up a Browning “BAR” which is your average wooden stock, wildlife engraved “normal” rifle, it would bring up memories of granddad's rifle hanging over the fireplace. That’s a tough one to get banned. Who could be for banning Grandpa’s rifle, right?
 
But guess what? They do the exact same thing. They are both “semi-automatic” rifles. You load the magazine with cartridges, and then “cock” it, and it will shoot every time you pull the trigger. One pull, one bullet. Same as the AR. But the AR is black and scary looking. That’s a much easier thing to call “evil” and an “assault” rifle.
 
So, considering that they’ve been trying to ban guns in America for over 40 years, and failed every time, the new push is to take the easy hanging fruit.  Just Let some lunatic shoot up a school ( AND YES I said let someone shoot up the school) and then use the KIDS to push for gun control, starting with the AR15.
 
It’s very hard for any politician, no matter how much he likes the second amendment, to stand up to 1000 high school kids that have no idea about guns, and try and defend his stance that the AR is exactly the same as 50 other semi auto rifles. They don’t want to hear it. They’ve been brainwashed by the media that these are “assault” weapons, and shouldn’t be in the hands of regular people.
 
Now let me ask the big question. Let’s suppose that they get their wish. AR15’s are banned. How long do you think it would be before they’re going after semi auto pistols? ( handguns) I say less than 6 months. ( in a few moments you'll see that they started ALREADY) They will never stop. If their goal is the total ban of weapons in America, they have to start somewhere, and they simply needed the right “event” to get people on their side. Well the Florida “event” is what they’re using.
 
I want to live in a world where there’s no killing. No shootings, no bombs, no drones, no missiles, no murders. We don’t live in that world. We live in a very dangerous world. It is already illegal for us to own an “automatic” weapon. They were banned back in 1986. So there’s no “machine guns” out there. No one cared, not even most gun owners. Why? Well while they’re cool to shoot for a couple minutes, they’re terribly inaccurate, and bullets cost MONEY. Cranking off 100 rounds in a couple seconds just set you back 40 bucks. Got a hundred bucks you want to blow shooting a machine gun?  You'll be finished in about 2 minutes. Most people looked at it as a novelty, and didn’t care about the ban.
 
But this is the slippery slope. A Semi auto rifle is a semi auto rifle. I don’t care if it has black plastic grips, or gorgeous walnut grips. I don’t care if it has an 18 inch barrel or a 24 inch barrel. I don’t care if it has a glass scope or a red dot scope. They are both the same thing. A one pull -one shot rifle that you don’t have to load manually between shots. So if they ban the AR, what’s next? I saw some of the lists that were coming out about proposed bans. Hundreds of weapons are being considered to be banned.
 
This is the biggest push I’ve witnessed, and I keep pretty attuned to this sort of thing. They “thought” they were going to get their bans after the Sandy Hook event. It didn’t work. But this time, they’ve got an army of young impressionable kids working their agenda, and that’s a very smart strategic move on their part. It’s also dangerous. If you think I’m kidding, look at what the Democrats have put forward:
 
House Democrats have introduced a bill banning semi-automatic firearms in the wake of the Feb. 14 shooting at a high school in Parkland, Fla.
 
The bill prohibits the “sale, transfer, production, and importation” of semi-automatic rifles and pistols that can hold a detachable magazine, as well as semi-automatic rifles with a magazine that can hold more than 10 rounds. Additionally, the legislation bans the sale, transfer, production, and importation of semi-automatic shotguns with features such as a pistol grip or detachable stock, and ammunition feeding devices that can hold more than 10 rounds.
 
Well guess what folks? That encompasses over 205 different rifles and PISTOLS. Are they going to get it passed? No. But that’s not their objective. First “go big” like this total ban, and then “settle” on just removing the AR style rifles. For now. The other one’s they’ll target later. It’s game on folks. They’re going for the gold.
 
The Market:
 
Monday, up 400 points. Tuesday down 300 points. Today? We started out in the green, up over 100 points. But it didn’t hold and as the day wore on, we fell. The fade accelerated in the last hours. When the final bell rang, we had lost 380 DOW points and 30 S&P’s.
 
This is a snippet of something I wrote to our paying members this morning:

The futures this morning are green to some extent. At 6:30 am, we have the DOW up 25 and the S&P up 1. But once again, because fair value is so low, if we opened right now, we'd be up higher than that.
 
What to think? On Monday we had that massive 400 point day, but then Tuesday we give back 300 of it. This is the "heavy" part of the market that I've been remarking on. I don't trust this market, simply because the shine is coming off. Powell is talking about rate hikes, the GDP estimates continue to fall, and the market is a choppy mess.
 
While they can probably muster enough Central bank money to push us higher, as you can see, it's not coming easy. If we don't put in a big fat green day, this will be the first February since 2009 that ends lower than it started. That's how big of a struggle this market is in.
 
Well as I said, I didn’t trust this market, and now you see why. We’ve been in a couple weeks of wicked chop, and wicked chop often foreshadows a change in market sentiment and direction. With today’s plunge the DOW and S&P are both below their respective 50 day moving averages again.
 
I haven’t been shy about telling my Insiders members that I think the market is heavy and the trades we’ve been making have been pretty quick. Not daytrading per se, but quick to bail out. For instance we had bought BA on Monday. Tuesday we sold half for a quick 8 bucks a share gain. Today we bailed out the remaining shares for 3 dollars per in gains.
 
I have more reasons for the market to go down, versus reasons for it to go up. But the ONE big reason that it “could” go up is very powerful. Central banks print money out of thin air and buy stocks with it. You can’t get any more powerful than that. But the host of reasons it should go down are legion. Are we finally looking at a market that has finally run out of gas, and the next direction is down? It’s possible.
 
We’ve got about 200 points of “room” for the DOW to fall before it has to make a real stand. But if it was to lose the close of Feb 21 at 24,797, we could easily go down and test the lows set in the beginning of the month. On the upside of the equation, they’d best rescue those 50 days, or there won’t be enough momentum to carry them higher.
 
Be careful out there friends, this feels ‘ugly”.

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