A Word From Bob

As Seen & Heard

Contact Us

rss

Invest Yourself

The FREE Investment Newsletter That Really Works!

6.17.2018 - Free Investing Newsletter Bookmark

Public Service Announcement
 
As you all know, I like nothing better than to ‘help folks out” and over the years I’ve written a lot about such things as disaster prep, home security, self defense, etc. Over the past several years, I’ve written a couple times about emergency communications, and even had some “ham” operators in studio when I was doing my radio show a couple years back.

 
Today I’m happy to reprint a piece that was sent to me by a reader that’s concerning an upcoming “open house” to the public, to see just how ham radio and emergency communication works. It’s being called “National Field Day for Amateur Radio Operators” and it’s coming up next weekend, the 23/24th.
 
NOTE>> Although this “blurb” is an announcement for a group that’s meeting in Newbury CA, there’s hundreds of these “meet and greets” going on around the Country that weekend. Use this link and find a “pin” near you and GO SEE these people in action.http://www.arrl.org/field-day-locator

 
Down here in Sarasota, there’s one at the Red Cross building that’s going to happen, but there’s one’s in Bradenton, North Port, Punta Gorda, etc. I really do believe you should check this out, because we’ve seen it time and time again. When a disaster strikes, it’s usually the “hams” that are the only ears and eyes we have from the situation.
 
 
Public Demo of Emergency Communications; 11am to 4pm June 23rd 2018
 
You are invited to meet with me and other Amateur Radio operators of Ventura County during the National Field Day for Amateur Radio operators at:

Maple Elementary School, 3501 Kimber Drive, Newbury Park, CA 91320

Visitors are encouraged to attend on June 23 between 11am and 4pm.
This particular deployment may be the largest in the country
Also active is the Reagan Library, and another is at the Camarillo Airport.

Hundreds of other locations throughout the United States participating can be found at: http://www.arrl.org/field-day-locator

Throughout all fifty states and Canada, Ham Radio operators will be setting up radio stations in unusual locations and making contact with others as a display of their emergency communications capabilities.
Like most communities, the Ventura County doesn’t expect a major emergency. But they happen, and losing communications quickly can turn an emergency into a real disaster.

In the past year alone, Ham Radio operators have made headlines with their work in the wildfires, floods, storms, tornadoes and other crises. The Hams provide emergency communications for many government and civic organizations in disasters. In addition, they provide supplemental communications when normal systems are rendered inoperable, overloaded or not available, and for community events such as cycle rides and walkathons.

"The fastest way to turn a crisis into a total disaster is to lose communications,” said Allen Pitts of the ARRL. “From the earthquake and tsunami in Japan to tornadoes in Missouri, Ham Radio provided the most reliable communication networks in the first critical hours of the events. Because Ham radios are not dependent on the Internet, cell towers or other infrastructure, they work when nothing else is available. “We need nothing between us but air.”

Despite the development of very complex, modern communications systems - or maybe because they ARE so complex - Ham radio has been called into action again and again to provide communications in crises when it really matters. Amateur Radio people (also called “Hams”) are well known for our communications support in real disaster and post-disaster situations.

We all rely on the Internet, cell phones, email and modern communications, but every year whole regions find themselves in the dark. Tornadoes, fires, storms, ice and even the occasional cutting of fiber optic cables leave people without the means to communicate. In these cases, the one consistent service that has never failed has been Amateur Radio. These radio operators, often called “Hams” provide backup communications for everything from the American Red Cross to FEMA and even for the International Space Station. Thousand Oaks “hams” will join with thousands of other Amateur Radio operators showing their emergency capabilities the fourth weekend in June.

Over the past year, the news has been full of reports of ham radio operators providing critical communications during unexpected emergencies in towns across America including the California wildfires, hurricanes, winter storms, tornadoes and other events world-wide. When trouble is brewing, Amateur Radio’s people are often the first to provide rescuers with critical information and communications. On the weekend of June 23-24 the public will have a chance to meet and talk with Ventura County Ham radio operators and see for themselves what the Amateur Radio Service is about as hams across the USA will be holding public demonstrations of emergency communications abilities.

This annual event, called "Field Day" is the climax of the week long "Amateur Radio Week" sponsored by the ARRL, the national association for Amateur Radio. Using only emergency power supplies, ham operators will construct emergency stations in parks, shopping malls, schools and backyards around the country. Their slogan, "When All Else Fails, Ham Radio Works” is more than just words to the hams as they prove they can send messages in many forms without the use of phone systems, internet or any other infrastructure that can be compromised in a crisis. More than 35,000 amateur radio operators across the country participated in last year's event.

Amateur Radio is growing in the US. There are now over 700,000 Amateur Radio licensees in the US, and more than 2.5 million around the world. Ham volunteers provide both emergency communications for thousands of state and local emergency response agencies and non-emergency community services too, all for free.

What is ARRL Field Day?
ARRL Field Day is the single most popular on-the-air event held annually in the US and Canada. On the fourth weekend of June of each year, more than 35,000 radio amateurs gather with their clubs, groups or simply with friends to operate from remote locations for 24 continuous hours.

It is a time where many aspects of Amateur Radio come together to highlight our many roles. While some will treat it as a contest, other groups use the opportunity to practice their emergency response capabilities. It is an excellent opportunity to demonstrate Amateur Radio to the organizations that Amateur Radio might serve in an emergency, as well as the general public. For many clubs, ARRL Field Day is one of the highlights of their annual calendar.

The contest part is simply to contact as many other stations as possible and to learn to operate our radio gear in abnormal situations and less than optimal conditions.

We use these same skills when we help with events such as marathons and bikeathons; fund-raisers such as walkathons; celebrations such as parades; and exhibits at fairs, malls and museums - these are all preplanned, non-emergency activities.

Participating in non-emergency events exercises our equipment and communications skills for the day when our skills and equipment are vital.

What is Amateur Radio?
Often called “Ham Radio,” the Amateur Radio Service has been around for a century. In that time, it’s grown into a worldwide community of licensed operators using the airwaves with every conceivable means of communications technology. Its people range in age from youngsters to grandparents. Even rocket scientists and a rock star or two are in the ham ranks. Most, however, are just normal folks like you and me who enjoy learning and being able to transmit voice, data and pictures through the air to unusual places, both near and far, without depending on commercial systems.

What is the ARRL?
The American Radio Relay League is the 150,000+ member national association for Amateur Radio in the USA. ARRL is the primary source of information about what is going on in ham radio. It provides books, news, support and information for individuals and clubs, special events, continuing education classes and other benefits for its members.
The Amateur Radio frequencies are the last remaining place in the usable radio spectrum where you as an individual can develop and experiment with wireless communications. Hams not only can make and modify their equipment, but can create whole new ways to do things.

The public is most cordially invited to come, meet and talk with the Hams. See what modern Amateur Radio can do. They can even help you get on the air!

The press is expected to attend, and brochures, information packets and other materials explaining our work will be available.

I hope that this event interests you. We look forward to your visiting this event. It should be fun and is also a validation to the hundreds of Amateur Radio volunteers who have spent thousands of hours providing emergency communications, public service work and other benefits throughout our community and region. If you need more information or would like to confirm your visit please contact me.
To learn more about Amateur Radio in general, go to www.emergency-radio.org.
 
Bob Again- I think this is really important stuff folks. Take an hour on Saturday or Sunday and go visit one of these exhibitions. You’ll see for yourself, how a car battery, an antennae, and the proper radio, can keep you informed in the case of a major blackout/hurricane/grid down/tsunami/etc, event. During my time living through Superstorm Sandy and then Irma down in Florida, it was indeed the hams that kept us informed. Go to one of these events and see how it works.
 
The Market:

Friday capped off 4 days of red on the DOW. But it wasn’t your typical walk in the park down day. No, not at all. The word had come out that the US was going to hit China with 50 billion in tariff’s and all the “trade war” talk came pouring forth and the market got jinky. After a poor open, we saw some serious selling to the downside, and at one point the DOW was off almost 300. The S&P was down 20.
 
But, the buy the dip folks did show up and rescue the day. When the final bell rang, we were only down 80 on the DOW and an incredible “2” on the S&P. So that raises the question, was the down day really about China trade tariffs? Or, was it a combo platter of “upside resistance” at 2800, and an excuse to fade off that?
 
Every time the market gets really stupid, as it did in 96 - 2000, or 2004 - 2007, people quickly start to dismiss any talk that one day all this joy and happiness will end and a bear will emerge. They joke about it, and mock the guy. But the facts are, that NO bull market has gone on for ever and this one won’t break that mold.

We’ve got a lot of things staring us in the face folks. The Fed’s, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National bank, the Norwegian wealth fund, and a ton of other sovereign big wigs, have printed money and bought stocks and bonds at a furious pace. For the past NINE years.
 
Stocks have risen for really just two reasons. Stock buy backs and Central bank printing. Those of you who suggest “what about earnings?” I have to question you. Do you believe the earnings? Why are banks STILL not marking to market? That’s right, our banks still mark to model. Fantasy. What ever happened to GAAP? Remember GAAP? Today, all reports are “Non” GAAP. More fantasy.
 
More companies have seen their so called “earnings” rise because they’ve bought back so much stock, than companies that have seen any organic increase in sales and revenues. Consider Tesla. Musk himself will tell you that we’ve really never made a profit. There are no earnings.
 
So, go with the flow here folks. If Central bank printing, and central banks keeping interest rates at near 0, along with companies borrowing money to buy up their own stocks, in conjunction with outfits like the Swiss National bank buying millions upon millions in real stock....what happens if any of that stops?
 
The single biggest question you can possibly ask yourself is this: Are the Central banks really going to keep hiking rates, and cutting back on QE, or not? Because if they are, STOCKS HAVE TO GO DOWN. There is no question about that.
 
The Central banks aren’t stupid, they’re just evil. They know that it has been their TRILLIONS in printing and QE, that’s allowed the global economies to keep functioning. They KNOW the stock market is at record highs because of them. And they also know, that if they continue to print and QE, they’re complicit in blowing the biggest economic bubble ever seen in the history of man.
 
So, while they love high-fivin each other about how they “saved” us from the 2008 crash, they realize that they’ve created a monster, and if they want any wiggle room in case the economy slows, they need to get some higher rates, and work off some of their balance sheets.
 
The Feds are already hiking rates. They’re jawboning about cutting their balance sheets by not rolling over their interest income into buying more Corporate paper. Now we’ve got Mario Draghi, saying they will reduce their QE from 30 billion a month, to 15 billion a month in September. By January they say they will end it completely.
 
At some point, rising rates, and less punch in the punchbowl, will cause problems. Servicing the debt becomes harder as rates rise. Not buying up crummy Corporate paper, will leave more junk on company balance sheets. If companies don’t buy back their stocks, will their real earnings keep things going higher? Don’t bet on it.
 
My point is this: The market stumbled in January, and that was in response to VERY LITTLE in the way of a rate hike or reduction of QE. We’re going on 6 months of not being able to retake the January highs. Now we’re getting more hikes. We’re getting the ECB lightening up. The S&P and the DOW are struggling with that.
 
Markets tend to top out when analysts start talking about how everything is so good they can’t believe it. We hear it all the time on CNBC. They fist bump over the best jobs situation in 40 years, they tell us about the “incredible” earnings, they tell us the economy is “firing on all cylinders”. What they don’t tell you is that none of that lasts forever.
 
IF the Central banks continue to actually go ahead with higher rates and less QE, there’s NO way we continue higher. Sure, we might make that last hurrah run that flirts with the all time highs, etc. But the ONLY way we’re going higher for more years, is if the Central banks toss in the towel and just keep printing. Period.
 
Right now the S&P is struggling with 2800. This is the area we stalled out in back in February and March. We could fail here, or we could push through and see that last blow of top run. I truly don’t know which one we’re going to get. One thing I think I know, is that we’re nearing the end of this bull run, courtesy of the Central banks actions. Consider the big picture folks, and don’t let the momentum emotions get the best of you. All momentum fades over time. We’ve had a lot of time. Think about it.

 
Good luck out there, and if you're interested in seeing what stocks we're long of, or considering buying or shorting, go snag yourself a subscription to the Insiders Club. It's just 199 a year, for 3 daily updates per day. One MCD play pays for several years worth of updates. Go to www.investyourself.com and hit the big red "subscribe" button. It's worth it.

Showing 0 Comment

Social Media

Archive

Bob Recommends