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The Triple Play?
Hey, before we get into today’s article, I want to pass along something that I find interesting. Maybe it can help you or a family member.
Last year my mom ( 90) got a skin gash on her right leg and it simply wouldn’t heal. It would weep fluid every time we took the bandages off. The wound care folks would come every two days, and the minute they removed the bandages, it would “pull” whatever amount of firmed up scab off, and the weeping would begin again.
After weeks of this nightmare, I said “there’s got to be a better way” and I tried something. In the morning I took off her bandages and once again it was “wet.” But, instead of putting on new zinc bandages, I got out my little fan.
I have a 5 inch fan that runs on batteries, that clips to darned near anything. It tilts, it swivels, and you can hook it to a desk, table, chair, you name it. So, I had mom put her leg up on a kitchen chair, and I hooked up the fan to blow across that wound. It was only, maybe 4 inches away and the fan blows pretty good.
After about an hour, it had dried completely and firmed up. I then had her go the rest of the day with NO bandages on it. That night I used some foam strips on each side of the wound, and wrapped her leg. The foam strips kept the bandage from actually touching the skin, it made something akin to a “tent” across the wound.
The next day, we did the fan again for an hour, even though it wasn’t weeping. Then we did the same foam thing that night. By the 3rd day, the wound was completely scabbed over. When the wound care people came, they were “shocked” by how good it looked. They asked me what I did, and I told them.
At the end of the month she had to go to the doctor that sent her to the hospital over that cut. He was amazed, and looked at me and said “I truly didn’t think this leg would ever look this good again, how’d you do it?? So I told him the fan trick.
He had his nurse come in and write down what I did, and find out where he could find those little fans. I really never thought much of it again. Well, last week when I took mom for a check up, that doc said that he had incorporated “the fan treatment” into several clients care regime that had wounds that wouldn’t heal over, and it’s worked every time.
He said he couldn’t imagine why he never thought of it himself, as the protocol is “if it’s wet, get it dry.” I said I don’t know, but glad it’s working for people. So, if any of you are dealing with a similar problem, give the fan treatment a try. It literally saved my mom’s leg.
Okay, the triple play…
We have 3 things on tap that could make or break this market. First off, on Thursday, Mario Draghi will be letting the world know what he’s going to do with the ECB’s monetary policy. Will he cut rates? Will he increase QE? We don’t know, but if he cuts rates which is likely, the markets will like it.
On Friday a group is traveling to China to talk trade. That trip ends next Wednesday. Well, guess what else happens next Wednesday? That’s the day the Fed’s tell us what they’re going to do with rates here in the States.
So the question becomes, what IF we get a cut out of Draghi, we come to a trade deal next week, AND the Fed’s cut rates here?? I have to think that the market would have a short term surge that could take your breath away. Hell, I think it will surge some even if we just get cuts out of Draghi and Powell.
So tomorrow is act one. Are they (the ECB) going to go “all in” and cut rates and announce QE? They might. I think a rate cut is for sure, the QE is up in the air. Act two is the China delegation. If they come away with “some” form of a deal, even if it’s just the outline of how things could work, the market’s going to love it.
Act three is our Fed. Now a rate cut is baked in. The only question we have is will it be 25 or 50 basis points. I’m thinking 25, but I also think they butter it up a bit. How? Well the way things are now the “QT” or quantitative tightening, is scheduled to end in October. I have a hunch they’ll talk about pulling that forward, and ending it sooner. A 25 basis point cut AND a speed up of ending QT, should indeed give the market the vapors.
From where I sit, there’s a chance that we could get three market positive announcements in the next week. Granted it’s a stretch to think we’ll get all three, as the China “deal” probably won’t evolve. But we should still get two out of three and that should be enough to power us up.
Remember folks, the MARKET is very important now. There’s so much tied to the value of stocks now, that they have already mentioned that a stable market is a matter of national security. With earnings sucking wind (CAT missed and guided lower, Boeing lost 5 billion, etc) they’ll look for these rate cuts with welcome arms.
So that’s what we’re looking at coming up, and there’s a pretty good chance the market will react. But it will also react negatively if 1) Draghi doesn’t cut, 2) there’s worse trade problems and 3) the Feds ONLY go 25 and nothing else. So that’s the risk we face.
I’ve decided to roll the dice by playing with some call options on the DIA and the SPY. If the market does surge over all this, we should reap some short term gains quickly. If not, I’ll back out with what I can get for them and move on.
On Friday we got the non farm payroll report, and boy…if the powers that be ever wanted to paint something to look perfect, this was their Rembrandt moment. Not only did the headline number beat the estimates of a gain of 235K by coming in at 257K; they went back and did some of the most aggressive “revisions” to prior reports that I’ve ever seen.
Let me paint the picture for you. According to our Government bean counters the last few reports have shown the most job gains in 17 years. They say that wage growth was the best since 2008, as they told us wages grew by 0.5%. The BLS did revisions to the entire year of 2014, and remember the “polar vortex” last January? They said at the time we only got 144K jobs. Now they say that looking back, it was really 247K. But that was nothing compared to what they did to November. Now they say November posted a gain of 465K jobs. That’s the most monthly gains since the tech bubble boom of the late 90’s. A time when there really were jobs galore.