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3.29.2020 -Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

So Different and Will Be, Forever.


We all experience life changing events. Nothing hits that home harder to me, than when my wife was diagnosed with aggressive Breast cancer. That’s a life changer for sure.


But over the course of my life, there’s been several things that deeply affected me. For instance, when people I had grown up with that came back from Vietnam so completely screwed up, that one of them didn’t remember who I was. I will never forget that day. Here’s a young man that I went camping with, partied with, rode bikes with, and a few years of what ever hell he went through over there, shorted him out. Sad. It changed my views on several things.


Then it was 9/11.


Everyone knows where they were on 9/11. I remember it like it was yesterday. I was in my office in PA. My assistant gal was running subscription renewals. I had CNBC on, getting ready for the trading day, and for hours watched live coverage by Mark Haines (  which he should have gotten an award for). That day changed a lot of lives. I knew several people that died that day. It reinforced my hatred of evil tenfold.


The market crash of 2008/9 disrupted a lot of lives, but it didn’t mess with me much at all. We were looking for the financial sector to implode, and it did. We actually had our best trading year during that period, shorting housing and financials and banks.


The next thing that shook me to the core was a bright sunny day on the Beach with my wife. It was a hot July day, a Sunday. While laying on the blanket, with my eyes closed, my wife yelled to me “Bob Look up!” and what did I see? A small 4 seat airplane gliding not 25 feet over my head.


Having had a private pilot’s license years back, I knew this was either a horrible stunt, OR he was going to try and put the plane down. Well that’s what he did. The engine had died and he was too far from the airport to make it.  He tried to land on the hard packed sand at the waters edge. But there was a problem. The beach is crowded on a Sunday afternoon, and sure enough, he hit two people.


A little girl and her dad were at the waters edge looking for shells. There was no way to warn them. The plane didn’t make a sound.  Then it happened. Not 60 yards from me, that plane hit both of them.  I ran there to do the best I could. It was grim. Dad’s skull was badly damaged, and the little girl was convulsing. It was a horrible day, as we tried to keep them alive. Dad died in the Sand, but we had hope for the little girl. The mother and little boy were frantic. Overwhelmed. Rescue finally came but it was over an hour later.


The next day, sadness hit. The little girl had died. But it was then that we learned how utterly bizarre it all was. This family had come down from Georgia to celebrate their wedding anniversary. They brought the family and the mom’s best friend on their vacation. We learned that the best friend was so stressed, she had a heart attack and died that night. So, a woman lost her husband, her child and her best friend, on a sunny beach in Florida, by an airplane on her anniversary. It’s affected me since.


Now we’re being affected again. This time, by a mutant little bug that you can’t see. I remember one time, my wife and I were in a pub having a burger and some drinks. We were talking all manner of “stuff” and somehow the topic was virus’s. I remember saying to her, “When I croak, and if I get to meet God, I have to ask him about Virus’s. Why, what are they for? I get bacteria, I really do. A dog poops, and between the flies, and the bacteria, etc, it gets cleaned up. But virus? Why are they here?”


I’m still asking that question, 25 years later. I’ve read where they think some viruses actually help out in your gut, but really?  In my life, all I’ve witnessed is virus making people sick and killing them.  I know God must have a purpose for them, but I’m too stupid to see it.


Anyway, this situation we’re in, is so different on so many levels. When 9/11 hit, I remember going out to the bars in town, to get a feel for things. Everyone was shocked of course, but there was a real sense of community and caring. For a short period of time, people “came together.”  Hell, even New Yorkers were polite to each other.


But this creature is different. We’re told NOT to come together. We’re isolated. The very bars that would have people in them, trying to share a beer and a joke about their situation, are closed. The people are home. For some, it is in every sense solitary confinement.


I’ve been through Hurricanes and ice storms. Horrible things. Yet it was “localized.” If you lived on the Coast, you knew that just 200 miles inland were stores jammed to the roof with food, water, medicine, TOILET paper, etc. But this thing is different. This is nationwide. You can’t look to your neighboring state for help, because they’re in the same mess you’re in. Even if you reach out 1000 miles, same situation.


I think some of the “not so wonderful” actions of people in the stores lately, has many causes. Again if a hurricane comes, generally in 48 hours if it hasn’t killed you, it’s gone, and all you have to do is pick up the pieces. But this isn’t a 2 hour tornado, or 2 day hurricane, or 7 day ice storm. No, this is weeks, possibly months.


It’s weighing on people. From job losses, to the fear of catching the deadly strain, there’s no end in sight. Sure the President is jawboning that he’d like to see the nation go back to work soon, but that’s just soothing talk, hope talk.


Recently the President mentioned that if this drags on, we’ll see suicides rise. It already has. Just yesterday a pretty 19 year old girl killed herself. The lockdown was making her crazy. There will be more.


Of course everyone’s life is being tossed upside down. Weddings are canceled. Vacations are canceled. In a Hurricane event, okay even if you can’t go to Disney, because it got hit, then okay, we’ll go to California, or heck maybe Italy.  Uhm, not this time Bucco. The whole damn world is shut down.


In every national disaster, you get a lot of the same rules tossed on you. Again, in a hurricane there’s often looters, curfews, no power, no water, no food, etc. But it’s localized. This is the first thing in my life that affects everyone, in every town, city and state, and has no true end date. Very different.


Because this is so different, you can bet that there’s going to changes that last years. 40 years of offshoring manufacturing is going to be seen as stupid now. Businesses that survive this by having people work from home are going to question why they need the big offices and the big rents.


The Government is going to push through all manner of crap, just like they always do. Digital currency? Check. More control? Check. Mandatory vaccinations? Check. On and on it goes. I can’t wait to see what else they’re cooking up.


This “thing” has become the globalists wet dream. Think about the dynamics here. In the past, they’d come up with more control ideas, more ways to take your rights, and the people would push back, saying NO!  But this time, via pounding the airwaves night and day about how horrible this is, the people are screaming FOR more loss of rights.


In Chicago if you leave your home, you will be arrested. People are calling the police on neighbors they heard cough. The “people” themselves are clamoring for “big Government” to do more, and they are perfectly willing to accept anything they throw at them.  You need a digital currency to get your relief?? GOOD bring it on they cry!  You need to wear a stamp on your head that says you got a vaccination before you can get on a plane?  Great, sign me up! 


This is VERY DIFFERENT. The control freaks are getting everything they want and there’s almost no pushback. They are going to push their agenda way down the field with this one, and I can’t even imagine what life looks like in a couple years.


Listen up folks. I want to believe that this thing runs its course, and disappears. I want to think life gets back to normal soon, I really do. But I think I’m just dreaming. Until then, when ever that is and what ever it looks like, do your best to remain sane. Keep an eye on your property, since theft is rising. Keep your distances, wash your hands, and keep everything away from your face.


If you’re really lucky, you’ll actually catch the mild case of this thing and have a mild cold. At least you’ll build up (some)  immunity to the really nasty strain if that happens to hit you.  In the meantime, here’s what’s been proven to help a lot against viruses.


Vitamin D3, at approximately 4 – 8K IU
Vitamin C, to just under the diarrhea level
Melatonin 4-5 MG
Olive leaf extract 500 MG

Stay safe out there friends. ANYONE can catch this thing by just one slip up. One infected gas pump handle, or candybar wrapper or what have you, that you introduce from finger to eye/nose/mouth can get you. Try and keep your hands clean and away from your head.  Good luck.


The Market:


For three days this past week, the Bulls were on parade. I heard some of the goofiest crap I’ve heard in years being spewed. Somehow, in the depths of a pandemic panic, where American’s are ratting out their neighbors because they went outside to get some sun, I’m to believe a new bull market has begun? Really?


I drove around Sarasota Saturday. You’d think it was the day after a nuclear attack. Streets are deserted. Usually traffic is so bad, it’s like the parking lot on Black Friday. Not now. Shops are closed, bars are closed, Restaurants are closed. Parks are closed, beaches are closed. There’s nowhere to go except a few specialty shops and grocery stores.


Yet a new bull market has begun?  Then I heard over and over how the market is “forward looking” and we had those three giant up days because the market knows this is going to be over, and things will get right. The standard regurgitation is that it looks out 6 months.  Really? On February 21, the DOW was at 29,140, flirting with all time highs. In less than a month it peeled off 10K points. So much for the all knowing market, eh?


No, the three day splurge-fest was fund rebalancing, a technical correction, and hopeful bulls, fear of missing out on “the bottom.”


I don’t think the bear is over. Despite the Feds pimping trillions of “what ever it takes” money, we still lost almost 1K points Friday. Sure Friday’s are notorious for being red, because folks don’t want to hold too much over the weekend talk shows, where more bad news could hit. But really?


The bond market is having none of it. The bond pits say things are not rosy out there. Now we’re going to be heading into earnings, and we all know they’re not going to be spectacular. Poor earnings, a bond market signaling troubles, people shut in, commerce shut down, and somehow I’m supposed to believe we saw “THE” bottom. No, we saw “A” bottom. An oversold, rebalancing, technical bounce, bottom.


I have to think the bulk of the rebalancing was done this week, but we still have two trading days in the month, so conceivably, we could see some green for Monday and Tuesday. But even that’s a stretch.


The bottom line here, is that Anyone that tells you they know exactly what’s going to happen over the next several weeks, is yankin your chain. NONE of this has ever happened before. Not the pandemic panic, not the Feds going ballistic, not the shut down of the entire worlds economies, not our 3 month bills going negative, none of it.


I don’t know what’s going to happen. I’m simply trying to use some very basic logic. All of that “stuff”  means a scared, nervous, and probably lower market.


To beat the dead horse, I’d buy gold. I’d buy mining stocks. Other than that, I’m more inclined to lean short in here.  It’s an insane time folks, try your best to stay safe, both health wise and market wise.

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