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Insiders Club - 6.3.2015 Bookmark

6.3.2015

Morning all, welcome to Wednesday.

Insiders Club - 6.2.2015 Bookmark

6.2.2015

Morning all, it looks like an interesting day....

Insiders Club - 4.30.2015 Bookmark

4.30.2015

Good morning everyone.  First off let me say thank you to all who wished me a Happy Birthday yesterday, I surely appreciate it. 

Insiders Club - 2.23.2015 Bookmark

2.23.2015

Good morning all, I hope you all had a great weekend!

So, we all know what happened last week. We were grinding sideways, going nowhere fast when they announced the "Greek deal" on Friday and we jumped strongly on the news. No the volume wasn't so great, and it wasn't really a "confirmed" breakout, but everyone liked it all the same.

There's a million questions swirling about concerning the results of the Greek deal. Is it going to hold? Are the Greek people going to accept more "austerity?"  Is true structural reform in the cards?  While the market cheer leaders are telling us yes...the proof will be in the pudding so to speak and right now the pudding isn't done yet.

2.19.2015 More Greek Tragedy Bookmark

Once again the market has been whipped around a bit this morning over the situation in Greece. They went hat in hand to the Union, and asked for a 6 month extension of their loan situation. That got the futures all fired up. But the Germans said "Nein!" they aren't budging on their stance for a total bail out. So the futures quickly retreated. With the DOW attempting to push through to all time highs, they're going to need something to give them the ammunition, and so far that's not it.

2.10.2015 Rumors to the Rescue! Bookmark

On Monday the market was pretty soggy because Greece was still standing firm about not meeting their obligations to the EU and the EU was saying that they weren't going to bend and Greece had little time to make things right. But this morning, the futures jumped by 100 points and everyone was cheering. What changed?

Insiders Club - 2.10.2015 Bookmark

 10:40

They came roaring out of the gates, all excited that some form of "plan" was in place to kick the Greek can down the road. However, the heads of Europe are quickly denying any deal has been made and even Diesel-boom himself has said "the discussions with Greece haven't even started yet"

That took some of the steam off things, as we had seen the DOW up around 115, and by 10 am it was up about 65. 

By 10:25 we'd been down to just + 52.

The XLF which is the ETF for the financials is hanging on for dear life. The 50 day moving average is at 24.13 and it is sitting at 24.14. The IWM which covers the small caps is down about 50 cents, which is "significant".

So right now it is evident that the Greek rumor saved the day, but it hasn't given them the firepower to push us substantially higher.

I hate being held hostage to rumors and manipulation. But that's exactly where we are. If you enter a position, and we hear any really stern language suggesting that there's NO Greek deal coming, we could fall like a rock. If we see another "rumor" floated we could gain 200.

That's not the type of investing environment I enjoy.

oil is pulling back some here today, and  I'm going to jack the stop up on ATW to 32.65, which is still a full dollar lower than where it is trading at right now. If you think oil has more to pull down, there's no shame taking your profits, right now at 33.65.

The DOW is up just 37 as I type this.... the fade continues.

My suggestion is to be wary of this day.

Let's look at AAPL. It gapped this morning, and got headlines as they sold gobs and gobs of bonds that only pay 0.28% for ten years. It must be nice getting free money. But my point is that they were at an all time high this morning before the pull back in the market. If they exceed the morning high at 121.27 it is probably a safe trade. I'll wait on 121.30 before I get involved.

I think we might get some more volatility after the lunch hour, so lets see where we are after that. Yes it is true that when Europe closes at 11:30 we'll probably get a bounce, but it might not hold through lunch. Let's see where we are then

 

 

2.10.2015


Good morning all, welcome to what could be an interesting day. Get your seat belts, and safety harnesses, because we could get bumpy.

Yesterday they held the market fairly steady for most of the day. But late in the session, they started losing confidence and from being down just about 45 points, we started rolling downhill quickly. By 3:30 we had the DOW off 135, before a late bounce hit and we ended the day down about 95. 

Overnight the futures bounced a bit.

Now here's the fun part... at 6 am the futures were green but not by much. The S&P was up about 4, and the DOW was up maybe 30. Then at 7:05 they both started soaring higher. In moments the S&P was up 14 and the DOW up 120.

Insiders Club - 2.9.2015 Bookmark

2.9.2015

Good morning all, welcome to the new week and all the twists and turns it's going to bring.

There's no shortage of insanity around the world and we report on it each week so that you all know the truth of what's happening. But sometimes I have to literally shake my head and say "wow", where do I start?  This week is one of those times.  So we talk about the Greeks saying they will not accept the bail out terms, or do we start with the "pivot" that seems to be forming concerning Germany and France as it pertains to Russia?

Or maybe the "finally" exposed HSBC news that they've been laundering and tax sheltering hundreds of millions for the Rich?

2.4.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Oil and the Big Save

Please don’t take this the wrong way folks, but it has to be said. On Sunday I laid out the numbers that we had to hold, or we very well could have been facing a serious market decline. I titled the letter “Crash alert – High”  I  was NOT predicting a crash in that letter. I was saying that we had very important technical levels that had to hold or we could then see a much deeper correction.  A lot of folks evidently didn’t pay attention to that part. All they saw was “crash” not the levels that needed to break to create one.

On Monday the market fell right down to those levels. Then it chopped around for hours as the “fight was on” between shorts and longs. We had fallen 120, then bounced for 100 then went red again by 40.  The day was very “up in the air” as to where it was going to go. But very late in the session, the FT put out a headline that the Greeks had changed their tune and weren’t lobbying for total debt relief, and willing to work out a repayment schedule. That was the “hot button” the market needed to blast higher off those numbers.

Insiders Club - 2.3.2015 Bookmark

2.3.2015

Yesterday was quite the interesting show on many levels. We had put out the numbers for days, the numbers that "just can't be violated" if they want to keep this market intact. So, we had this incredible tug -o-war all day, as the market fell 120, gained 100, fell 100 and then in the last 45 minutes of the day...went ballistic.

How does a "normal" market, functioning on the fundamentals of earnings and profits, gain and lose and gain again over 500 points in a session? It can't. What can happen however is that the Central planners, desperate for the market to hold up....can defend those important technical levels and then "manufacture" something they think will get the market excited. Well they did just that.

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