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11.20.2015 - Insiders Club Bookmark

11.20.2015

Hello everyone, welcome to Friday... a day that couldn't get here quick enough.

It's been a big week in market land. Even yesterday; they didn't have the oomph  to keep things going, but they didn't let it fall either. We put in a flat day.

Overnight, Draghi of ECB fame hinted once again at doing all he has to do to fight deflation. That is code speak for "more free money comin at ya!" So markets liked that. In fact they liked it so much, that in the nation of Mali, Islamic crazies took 170 people hostage at an upscale hotel and the response was a yawn by markets.

Insiders Club - 11.2.20151 Bookmark

11.2.2015

Good morning everyone, welcome back from the weekend. Like always I hope it was a great one for you and for those of you with little kids I hope they had a great Halloween. Our weekend was great, we got to see little mermaids and witches and mini policemen and frogs and you name it. Some people get really creative on their costumes and this year was no exception.  Then Sunday we were blessed with bright blue sky and we got in our bike ride and beach walk. I guess that if there was something for me to complain about, it was the temps. It's tough when the calendar says November 1, but the thermometer in our car reads 91. Wow.

Insiders Club - 10.22.2015 Bookmark

10.22.2015

Good morning everyone, welcome to Thursday and tons of good fun. 

Yesterday I had a hunch they might fade us a bit into the close and that's exactly what they did. I think the global news is so ugly that they tend to lighten up ahead of the close so that they don't find themselves crushed by some bad news out of China or Germany. Then if things look better by morning they start by buying futures and "get back in".

Insiders Club - 6.30.2015 Bookmark

6.30.2015

There's a "whole lotta shakin goin on...."

Insiders Club - 6.3.2015 Bookmark

6.3.2015

Morning all, welcome to Wednesday.

3.4.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

We need Hookers in the GDP

I don’t mean hidden sleight of hand. I don’t mean “ringers” or other fake data. What I’m talking about is actual hookers…prostitutes. But not only prostitutes, we’re talking crack cocaine, powder cocaine, heroin, cannabis, ecstasy and amphetamines. Why? Because these are the things that are now included in Italy’s GDP reporting.

I know you think I’m making this up, but I’m not. A few years back virtually every nation decided to change the way they measure GDP so that they could make things look better. Here in the states they changed the rules to include such mundane things as research and development, old TV show reruns, Artistic originals including books, movies, TV shows, music, photographs and greeting cards — yes, greeting cards.

I’m not being militant here. I understand the idea behind some of these moves. For instance take a movie like Star Wars. When it was first released, they hoped it would be something special and make a splash at the box office. Well it did and that should figure into the GDP for a nation because indeed money was spent both to make it and to see it. But who would have known that it would grow into multiple billions of dollars in revenues over the years as it became somewhat of a cult following?  Are we to ignore the billions spent on Star wars clothes, toys, spin off’s etc? No and we shouldn’t.

Insiders Club - 3.5.2015 Bookmark

3.5.2015

Hello everyone, good Thursday morning....

Last night I mentioned once again that I don't particularly enjoy being the bearer of bad news, but unfortunately it's out there and there's no shortage of it. This morning while the futures have been rising on the hopes that Draghi will be talking of rainbows, unicorns and free money for ever... the Challenger layoff report has hit and it's not pretty. They announced over 50K job cuts for the month, which means we've seen 103K in just two months.

1.21.2015 LEAK!!! Bookmark

After a 100 point drop on the DOW this morning in response to an ECB member saying "you shouldn't get too excited about tomorrow's meeting", the market roared higher after it was "leaked" that the ECB is going to do 50 billion dollars of QE a month.

Insiders Club - 1.20.2015 Bookmark

1.20.2015

Good morning everyone, welcome back from your 3 day weekend. It was glorious taking that extra day "off" from the markets, so that our burnt out brain cells could try and repair themselves. But here we are, and instantly the brain cell burning has resumed. Consider...

JNJ released earnings today. If all you had to go by was the "hype" from CNBC and analysts, you'd swear they were incredible earnings. But as usual, when we take a quick scan of the release, we see a lot of things that the cheerleaders must be blind to. First off, Revenues actually fell Year over year. Is that good? Nah, not really. But wait it gets better. They released "non GAAP" earnings of 1.27.   Guess what they'd have had to admit to if they were following GAAP rules?  89 cents. Yes folks, Pro-forma, non-GAAP added almost 40 cents a share to their report.

I can smell my smoldering brain cells now.....

1.12.2015 Insane Chop Continues Bookmark

We've seen one of the volatile starts to a new year than I can remember. I've been doing this for about 20 years,and I'm hard pressed to think of a time when we've seen this much up and down chop this early in the year. Just a quick look at last week sums it up. We fall some, then "boom" up we go for over 300. But that sells off on Friday by 170 points.

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