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Insiders Club - 4.22.2015 Bookmark

4.22.2015

Good morning everyone, welcome to a new day.

Yesterday I warned over and over that I felt the market was really going to struggle, as the combo of relatively poor earnings is coinciding with a market trying to hit the old "all-time" highs. The technicals were weakening and the volumes were lousy.

Insiders Club - 4.21.2015 Bookmark

4.21.2015

Today is going to be incredibly interesting.

You all know the story, back on Friday the market was down 350 at times, and closed out the day off about 280.  Then Monday rolls around and we get the lions share of those points back, ending the day up 208.

Insiders Club - 4.16.2015 Bookmark

4.16.2015

Mornin' everyone, it is already an interesting day.

Early this morning the futures were pretty green. But they took a nose dive on word that the Greeks had indeed gone to the IMF to ask for a delay in their payment schedule which was denied. From that moment on, the futures have been pretty red.

It is indeed earnings season and the earnings keep coming.  Last night it was sort of funny, Netflix announced earnings that actually missed by a mile, but because their subscriber base grew, they were up  60 dollars per share. Go figure.

Insiders Club - 4.14.2015 Bookmark

4.14.2015

Morning all, welcome to Tuesday...

Yesterday was indeed weaker in the final hours than I thought they'd let it get. So again, let's review something here so we're clear...

The market is just a stone toss away from "all-time" highs. It is my contention that those highs will not be surpassed easily, if at all. Yes read that again, I think the all-time highs might be a top.  At the very least, I think they'll be very hard to get past.  That said however, I did and still do think they might at least try a few times to attack those highs and "see" how stiff the resistance is.

Insiders Club - 4.9.2015 Bookmark

4.9.2015

Well here we go. It's earnings season and as I expected, earnings are going to be manufactured, lied about and made to look better than they are.

Last night Alcoa "beat" estimates on lower revenues.
Shortly after, BBBY came out and they too missed revenues. They guided lower.

Insiders Club - 4.8.2015 Bookmark

4.8.2015


I have no clue.

I have no idea why we were up about 65 points with only 30 minutes left in the day, and we closed red. There was no big news that I could find, there was simply no solid reason for the sell off that is "public" news. Surely something was said or done somewhere, but I didn't find it.

This morning the futures are flattish - green. We've got the DOW up 16, the S&P up a couple.

Insiders Club - 1.20.2015 Bookmark

1.20.2015

Good morning everyone, welcome back from your 3 day weekend. It was glorious taking that extra day "off" from the markets, so that our burnt out brain cells could try and repair themselves. But here we are, and instantly the brain cell burning has resumed. Consider...

JNJ released earnings today. If all you had to go by was the "hype" from CNBC and analysts, you'd swear they were incredible earnings. But as usual, when we take a quick scan of the release, we see a lot of things that the cheerleaders must be blind to. First off, Revenues actually fell Year over year. Is that good? Nah, not really. But wait it gets better. They released "non GAAP" earnings of 1.27.   Guess what they'd have had to admit to if they were following GAAP rules?  89 cents. Yes folks, Pro-forma, non-GAAP added almost 40 cents a share to their report.

I can smell my smoldering brain cells now.....

10.13.2014 Magic Levitation Bookmark

Last night when the futures market opened, ( Futures open at 6 pm Sunday evening) the DOW quickly plunged red. Even an hour later the DOW futures were down 70 and the S&P down 15.  But with Japan closed for Holiday, and our own Bond market closed today for Columbus day, they knew there wouldn't be any volume in the futures pits and they could work their "magic".

10.12.2014 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Earnings Upon Us…

Four times a year, most companies produce their economic report for the previous quarter of business. This isn’t something new, they’ve been doing it since the idea of a structured company first began. But like most things, they’ve “morphed” into something much different than the standards set so many years ago. I’m not shy in saying that a very competent accountant overseeing companies in 1920 would have absolutely no clue how to figure out what the hell any modern company was even talking about.

So when these companies start releasing their earnings in bulk next week, just what are we actually hearing them tell us? Sometimes it isn’t as easy as just saying “oh that’s their earnings based on sales versus expenses”.  Thus I think a bit of history lesson needs to be taught here….

Insiders Club - 10.9.2014 Bookmark

10.9.2014

Welcome to the schizophrenic market!

No your eyes didn't deceive you. Yes we did have back to back 260 point days, one down, one up. So now the question is...what's next?

For the bulls they have everything they could ever want in place. Think about it folks... I said 6 months ago that they'd make everything Rosy for the mid term elections. Since I said that they've twisted the jobs reports, the way you calculate manufacturing, and a host of other things.

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