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1.7.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Rate Hikes

We’re beginning to discuss some of the major themes that will shape the global economy for 2015 and as I stated on Sunday, this is going to take a lot of discussion and brutally frank dialog. The gloves have to come off for this discussion, and you have to be open enough to at least consider some of the issues we’re going to be talking about.

Anyone with a functioning brain should be able to tell you that the Fed’s cannot raise interest rates. In fact most people can lay out very good explanations as to why they will keep them at zero for ever, and restart the QE program. Hey, I get that. It does indeed make the most sense ON THE SURFACE.

1.4.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

2015

Over the past week, I’ve seen many folks make their 2015 predictions, and like usual they run the whole gambit of possibilities. In general, trying to predict events and outcomes for an entire year is futile at best, and frankly, stupid at worst. Even the best of the best are rarely more than 50% accurate. Yet we do it, because we get to look smart if indeed we get a few things right.

All that said, 2015 has the ability to be a monumental year. We could see events unfold that literally change the shape of the entire worlds Geo-politics. Notice I said “could see” and that’s because we’re going to be talking about very big-picture topics; the kind that don’t always evolve as you think they will, or even when you think they will.  The problem before me is this…there are about a dozen topics we need to discuss, and all of them tie into each other. You simply cannot wrap up the worlds problems and solve them in one newsletter however. So obviously this is going to take a few issues to get through.

12.18.2014 The Fed's Bring Santa Bookmark

By now you probably know that the Fed's gave the market the green light to run back up. Yellen did a classic example of talking out of both sides of her mouth, mentioning rate hikes in 2015, but also saying the Fed will be data dependent and can be very "patient".  It didn't matter that CAT has just announced their 25th month in a row of falling retail sales, or that Fedex missed the estimates despite billions in buy backs. No, nothing else matters other than zero interest rates and a happy Fed.

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