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9.6.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Jobs Fantasy and the Fed Hike

Okay folks we got the August jobs report and according to the bean perverters , oops sorry, I mean bean counters…we got 173K new jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%.  A better work of fiction you will not find on the best seller list.

First off 1.4 million more people were “not in the labor force”.  That makes 94 million people. Because we toss around numbers like millions and billions and even trillions so much, let’s write that out…94,000,000. That’s a lot of people that are NOT in the labor force. So what are they doing? Well some are retired. Some gave up looking for work, and some are “working” the system.  (and making about 75 grand a year doing it too!)

Insiders Club - 6.5.2015 Bookmark

6.5.2015

Good morning all, welcome to Friday.

Insiders Club - 5.8.2015 Bookmark

5.8.2015


Morning everyone, it's Friday and it's jobs day. So, how are they going to react to it? By the end of this update, you'll know.

Insiders Club - 5.7.2015 Bookmark

5.7.2015

Morning all, welcome to the whacky world we dwell in....

Insiders Club - 3.6.2015 Bookmark

3.6.2015

 

What's wrong with this picture?


Today is jobs day, and heading into the delayed release the CNBC crew had the normal criminals on to discuss it all. Well, Zandi the bull of all bulls figured it could come in under 200K because of weather and oil jobs fading. Goolsby said 210. Rick Santelli said under 180

What did the Government give us?

295K and unemployment down to 5.5%

Do you believe any of that? Me neither.

2.9.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Jobs Galore?

 

On Friday we got the non farm payroll report, and boy…if the powers that be ever wanted to paint something to  look perfect, this was their Rembrandt moment. Not only did the headline number beat the estimates of a gain of 235K by coming in at 257K; they went back and did some of the most aggressive “revisions” to prior reports that I’ve ever seen.

Let me paint the picture for you. According to our Government bean counters the last few reports have shown the most job gains in 17 years. They say that wage growth was the best since 2008, as they told us wages grew by 0.5%. The BLS did revisions to the entire year of 2014, and remember the “polar vortex” last January? They said at the time we only got 144K jobs. Now they say that looking back, it was really 247K.  But that was nothing compared to what they did to November. Now they say November posted a gain of 465K jobs.  That’s the most monthly gains since the tech bubble boom of the late 90’s. A time when there really were jobs galore.

1.28.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Technology Take Over…


Sometimes it is hard for me to keep my head buried in the place it is supposed to be, that being this thing we call economics and the financial structure. Why? Because each moment that passes is a new milestone for us. In other words, today we know more than we did yesterday. Tomorrow we will know more than we did today. Each day that goes on brings us new intelligence, new questions, new experiences. Sometimes the changes that are brought by these new events leads us to tremendous investing opportunities.  Who wouldn't have wanted to be on the ground floor when Polaroid camera debuted its new technology? Who wouldn't have wanted to be an "Angel" investor in Johnson and Johnson back in 1885 when they were creating the first "ready to use" bandages? Who wouldn't have wanted to be the first investors in this new upstart called "MicroSoft" so many years ago?  

1.9.2015 Easy Come, Easy Go? Bookmark

After gaining over 300 points on Thursday, Friday started the day with a 200 point drop. Why the big reversal? I think you could take your pick of excuses. Locusts, floods, aliens, bad hair, hangnails, halitosis, you name it. The excuse most are using is that the jobs report was "so good" it means the Fed's might hike rates.  Well I have an issue with "so good".

Insiders Club - 1.9.2015 Bookmark

1.9.2015

Good morning everyone, welcome to Friday and the jobs report.

Yesterday was a case study in absurd. Ignoring every instance of the fundamentals of investing, the market gained over 300 points in one session, simply because Fed head Evans suggested to reporters that hiking rates would be "catastrophic". That got the market all excited that they weren't going to have to worry about rising rates in 2015.

Insiders Club - 1.7.2015 Bookmark

1.7.2015

Good morning folks.

I've been both praised and criticized over the years for chatting with our members as "friends" instead of strictly a business relationship. If you are one of those that doesn't like a little personal injection into the conversations, I'm sorry, but it won't stop. Because we've had a habit of sharing personal issues, and talking like friends, I've met and become friendly with dozens of folks that I'd never have had the pleasure to know

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