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11.28.2014 OPEC Holds Firm Bookmark

The political game continues folks. Last night OPEC held the line, just as we suggested they would. We didn't feel they'd cut production to halt the price slide, because they've got a handful of reasons not to. First off they don't really like the competition from the US shale producers. They don't like the production from the Russians either. They also like to supply China with cheap oil, because the Saud's and China are becoming more buddy-buddy all the time. Besides, there's been a lot of bickering between the Saud's and the US lately, and poking at stick at the "petro-dollar" feels good to them also.

Insiders Club - 11.28.2014 Bookmark


Good morning all, welcome back from your Thanksgiving feast. I had what I consider the perfect day, it was low key, filled with family and friends and we did a "whole lot of nothing" except chatting, eating and drinking. I wish it was more like the old pilgrim "days of thanks" because their's wasn't just one day, it was THREE!

But it's over now and we're back in the saddle. Remember folks the market is only open until 1 pm Eastern today. I'll probably be shut down an hour ahead of that.

11.26.2014 Thanksgiving "Eve" Bookmark

Thanksgiving is my favorite Holiday. No, not because we get to pig out on more food than someone in Bangladesh could eat in a year, but because it demands of us to take at least ONE day to sit back and be thankful.  Because of the "rat race" we never have any time. We're always rushing here and running there, always stressed, always "too busy". And what gets left out?  The appreciation of what we truly have.

Insiders Club - 11.26.2014 Bookmark


Good morning all, welcome to "Thanksgiving Eve" so to speak.

If today follows history, we'll open okay, gain a bit,... and then sit there for the balance of the day going nowhere. Most of the senior traders will punch out by 11 am, and leave the juniors and the robots to guard things.

Frankly I was a bit surprised at how weak Monday and Tuesday were. Usually the market magically levitates on Thanksgiving week, but so far all it's been able to do is "hover" around the unchanged line. I think that tends to show just how stretched and desperate this market is.

11.25.2014 GDP upgrade Bookmark

I'm trying not to be the bad guy, but these reports lately are beginning to make me scratch my head. Not long ago the Philly Fed posted a 40 reading. That was one of the strongest readings in decades. But yesterday the PMI report missed estimates and fell. Today the GDP gets upgraded from 3.5 to 3.9%, but at the very same time, small businesses are telling us that they don't see any growth, just tepid action.

Take all of these with a grain of salt folks.

Insiders Club - 11.25.2014 Bookmark


Good morning all. I'm running a tad late this morning because I had to go get some blood drawn. Wow, there must be a lot of sickly folks because I got to the lab at 7 am and there was already 9 people there ahead of me waiting for the doors to open. In any event, I'm here and settled in and ready for my daily madness.

Yesterday the DOW wasn't quite as strong as I figured it might be, but we did end green. The S&P and the NASDAQ were considerably stronger on a points/percent basis. This morning when I went to the lab, the futures were just barely green but that changed at 8:30 when the revision to the GDP hit. It was massively stronger than anyone expected. From the last reading at 3.5% now they say it was 3.9%.

11.24.2014 Thanksgiving observations Bookmark

Thanksgiving is my favorite Holiday and luckily the market is usually quite generous during Thanksgiving week too. So our guess is that we'll continue the sideways and up move that we've seen lately. The worlds Central Bankers are "all in" on the idea, and unless we get a classic Black swan event, or the CB's decide to pull the rug, we "should" just continue to levitate this week. We're "leaning long and keeping our finger near the sell button"

Insiders Club - 11.24.2014 Bookmark


Good morning all, welcome to Thanksgiving week. As you might guess, the market will be open Wednesday, but by 11 am, the day will effectively be "over". Then we're closed Thursday and we're only open for half a day on Friday.

Historically the market does well this week and this time should be no different. If they weren't about to roll the market over with all the chances it had last week, they probably won't this week either. So, we should expect a slow grind higher.

11.23.2014 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

What’s Your Plan?

What is it? What’s your plan for getting through the next 20 years? Do you have one? Have you ever thought of one? Do you think the madness that we’re witness to every day is normal and somehow it all just sort of works out? If things get really ugly, do you have any plan of action?

Consider something for a moment. The ultra rich are divesting out of “dollars” as fast as they can and the price appreciation in “things’ has been astronomical. Some guy takes a blank canvas, paints half of it black and it sells for 48 million at Sotheby’s. New York apartments that were 10 million a few years ago are being bought up like candy for 100 million. Down here in Florida, the more outrageous the price for a mansion on the water, the more bidders there are for it. Every where we look, the rich are buying “things”

11.21.2014 China Goes Full Stupid! Bookmark

Most people were debating the push by Obama to executive action a plan for illegal immigrants last night. But that paled in comparison to the news out of China. They came out and cut rates last night, suggesting that their economy needed a boost. Well that spread to Europe and Mario Draghi ran to the nearest microphone to scream that he too will be flooding the world with Euro's.

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