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1.1.2017 - Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Fearful Predictions 2017

 
Every year I make a fool of myself, by trying to predict what the upcoming year will bring.  But in my defense, I will say that after doing this for over 20 years, I have had quite a few years where things worked out almost exactly as I thought. This year will not be one of them. Why? Too many variables.

Let me be clear about something. My feeling was that Donald Trump would win the election based on what I called “anecdotal’s” such as seeing him pack arenas with 15, 18, 24,000 people 3 times a day; versus Hillary struggling to fill a 10K seat stadium, even with people like Beyonce helping her. But I also thought that she’d be able to somehow steal it away.  So, if she had won, I could lay out this coming year almost perfectly.  We’d be in a shooting war with Russia by Summer, the stock market would see its first major correction in years, and the economy would fall even lower.
 
The rush to get away from the US dollar would accelerate, with Russia,Turkey, China, Brazil, and a host of others using gold as actual payments, so they wouldn’t have to go through US dollars and the Swift system. Most people don’t know it, but the only reason someone like Obama can put “sanctions”on another nation like Russia or Iran, is because damn near every transaction around the globe has to go through the SWIFT system of settlements, exchanging local currencies for dollars, and then to payment. Well, they hate it and want out of it. Thus the BRICS bank, and why so many nations are stocking up on Gold at a furious pace. 
 
When Russia was sanctioned, it certainly hurt a lot of Russian AND European business, because if a Fishmonger in Norway wanted to sell sardines to Russia like they had for 40 years, it had to exchange its currency for dollars, and then send the dollars to Russia to be translated back to Rubles.  Well that has to happen via one of the 3 main exchanges, with SWIFT being the biggest. With no access to the US based SWIFT system, they can’t do business. However, it didn’t bring the country to its knees. Russia exchanged oil for goods. They swapped gold for Wheat. Life went on.
 
I had it all planned out. But there was a problem. She didn’t win and she hasn’t been able to steal it thus far. So, we’ve got the probability that Donald Trump will indeed be the President. ( unless in the next 18 days they come up with something incredibly wicked to halt the inauguration) That tosses a massive wrench in the whole gearbox.  Who knows exactly what this guy’s going to do? Not me.  For instance, consider his central cabinet. He’s got people in there that are actually FOR and have written papers about,  having a monetary gold standard... and then he’s also got people that think Gold’s a relic and Fiat money is the answer to everything.  Go figure eh?
 
There’s some speculation that the globalist elites will yank the plug on the banking system and crash the US economy, blaming Trump and those “crazy right wing people” for causing it.  Is that reality? It could be, Lord knows that every globalist piece of garbage in power, hates Trump.  What about the Fed? There’s no love lost between say Yellen and Trump. So, does Yellen run out her term and then instead of going home and baking cookies, stays on as a Reserve member? There’s 2 open seats on the board that Obama never filled, maybe she’d like to stay on and be a thorn in Trump’s side?  Or, will Trump come in on day one and appoint those two seats with Republicans and make Yellen’s life miserable?
 
What about Trump’s infrastructure plans? Are they dead in the water because the Deficit hawks in his own party are going to block his push for another quick trillion in debt, OR...has Trump devised a way around it?  Suppose Trump looks at the trillions that US Companies have stored all around the world, to avoid US taxes, and says to the CEO’s “I’ll let you bring all that money back home for a tax rate of just 10%.  But in return I want you all to pony up a trillion that we can put into an “infrastructure bond”. You’ll get your money back with interest, and I get to build roads, bridges and airports, without adding a penny to the US debt”.   He does think outside the normal political box.
 
Then there’s the military issue. He’s already stated that NATO is a relic and we shouldn’t be the world’s policeman. Yet he’s surrounded himself with enough Generals to run 3 World wars at the same time. What about Russia? The insane push to provoke Putin and the Russian people continues to this very day. In one of his campaign speeches he said that it’s time the US stopped toppling other nations and trying to do nation building. Is he going to stop the Neocon’s from their incessant push for more wars? Can he? Will the military/industrial machine, simply stand down and let Trump dissolve NATO, and stop trying to influence the world with our wars such as Iraq, Libya, and Syria? 
 
Where’s the stock market going to go? Just the “hope” that he’s going to toss out regulations, cut the excess out of the EPA Nazi’s, lower taxes, etc....has caused a 3,000 point market “melt up”.  Does it just keep on going? Does Trump get through so many of his platform agenda’s that we get a true economic turn around and the market hits 30k?  Or, as we move forward into the year, does it become evident that he can’t get half of what he hoped to do?  What about the debt loads? What about the 700 trillion in derivatives floating the monetary oceans of the world? Do they magically disappear?
 
What about gold and silver? Are the metals dead and we’d be stupid to hold them? Well, I’ve heard that many many times over the last 20 years, but I ask this question...Each year we see more and more nations buying more and more gold. If it’s so worthless, why do they want it? Again, as I mentioned earlier it’s a way for nations to get away from the US dictatorship we hold over the world’s financial systems. It’s also the oldest form of stable “money” in a world filled with printing press bills. Just because Trump has been elected, does all that stop?
 
Consider China. They own about 2 Trillion in US paper Treasuries. If we inflate ourselves, the value of the Treasuries goes down. So, China’s stockpiling gold to counteract that. They also want to get on equal footing with gold reserves that equal the other SDR nations. But there’s more to the story.
 
As the Yuan becomes ever more convertible around the world, and the Shanghai gold exchange becomes more and more profound on the global stage, I suspect we’ll see some very interesting developments, especially in the oil producing nations. 
 
Already China has surpassed the US in oil consumption. This is hugely important because as you know that  oil is priced in dollars. In fact it’s called the “petro-dollar” after the agreements between the Saudi’s and the US were made some 40 years ago. Well, the Saudi’s aren’t that happy with the US, and they’ve been joining Iran and Russia in selling oil to China. Okay fine, no biggie right? Wrong. Because of the newly minted Shanghai gold exchange, what we see is that Russia, Iran, Saudi, etc are selling the Chinese oil, and instead of dollars, they’re taking in Yuans. Then they recycle those yuans right back to China via the Shanghai exchange, and take PHYSICAL DELIVERY of gold.  This isn’t conspiracy folks, this is happening. No one wants more US paper, they want something more substantial.
 
What about the war on cash?  Most people don’t know that there’s been and is increasing, a global war on cash. The banking elite want a cashless society, so they can monitor your every move, charge you negative interest rates ( you pay them to hold your digital currency an interest rate charge) extract taxes from you automatically, etc.  Is Trump and his collection of Goldmanite’s going to put a halt to that?
 
How about the EU? Now that we’ve had Brexit, and the “no” vote in Italy, will France be next to say “we need out of the EU?”  Does that entire test tube experiment for a one world centralized governing “union” dissolve and all the tribes go back to their own original currency?  What about the push back to the waves of so called refugee’s?  Will European nations finally throw out the idiots that opened the gates to millions of military aged men, men who’ve caused so many rapes, and crimes that in Sweden and Germany, women are afraid of the night?
 
See folks, if Hillary had won or stolen the election, every one of the above “What  about’s?”  I could give a pretty clear and lucid answer to. I could look pretty darned smart as one by one my predictions would either come true, or be “really close”.  But again, with Trump we’ve got the wildest of cards now. So I’m about to say something that I’ve never said in 24 years of printing my ‘fearless predictions for the new year”.  I don’t have a damn clue what’s going to happen.  Yep, you read it right. I cannot with any sense of certainty try and tell you how this year is going to evolve, there’s simply too many dots.
 
That’s pretty awkward for me. People pay us to try and get a better understanding about what the future might look like.  Well, we don’t know the future any better than a boardwalk palm reader. But we’ve been successful for all these years because we take data points, and call them “dots”. Then when you put enough dot’s on the paper, more times than not, it starts to create a picture.  From that picture, you can often get a pretty good view of what lies ahead.
 
But this year, the dot’s look like a paper target hit by number seven bird shot out of your shotgun. They’re all over the place. It’s scattershot.  NO clear picture has emerged.  For every good that a Trump Presidency tells me, I can point to a dot where he’ll be challenged, obstructed and blocked. For every move toward peace with Russia there’s a John McCain calling for a declaration of war against them. For every sound bite about reducing the power of the EPA over business, there’s an EPA trying to stop Alaskan’s from heating their homes with wood.  For every declaration of less regulations, there’s a Federal bureau launching more laws. For every call to Make America Great, there’s a Michael Moore urging the left to organize via social media and block his every move.
 
Let me give you another one...the push against the alternative media. It’s clear to me that Trump isn’t afraid to call the Main Stream media liars, and pushers of fake agenda’s, he’s done it many times. But the fever pitch of the current left is so extreme, that there’s a witch hunt going on against alternative sites. Will Trump be able to derail that hunt so that people are still free to search the Internet for reality?  If the Main Stream was going to relent and flip back into journalist mode instead of hit piece mode, wouldn’t they at least have shown an inkling of trying to work with Trump by now?  There’s not even been a hint that they’re going to let off bashing him.
 
I built Investyourself as a place where whether I’m right or I’m wrong, I wouldn’t put out anything that I didn’t believe in. So over all these years, if you’ve seen me make a prediction about the market, the economy the political landscape, etc, I might have gotten it wrong, in fact I’ve had thousands of things wrong. But they were never intended to fool you. If you read it in here, I believe it to be true.  That’s what sets us apart from the Main Stream. I don’t have an agenda to sway you to, I simply report things we believe to be true and base investments, etc, on those beliefs.
 
A lot of my predictions over the years were ridiculed as conspiracy theory. Tin foil hat stuff. But over time, most of them came true, or got so close to coming true that some of my biggest critics have over the years actually apologized for ridiculing me. I don’t say that to brag, I say that because for most people the only news or theories they get are from the Main Stream Media. You know those guys, the guys like CNN that said Hillary was marking a 98% win rate, or CNBC that said “Wall Street thinks Hillary wins, and by a landslide”.  A lot of the things we say in our letters is 180 degrees apart from the main stream narrative. So obviously it seems outlandish. Until it comes true. 
 
So the brutal honesty is this...I cannot make hardly any serious predictions for this upcoming year. There’s too many variables, too many power struggles, too many divisions. I can lay out a perfect scenario about how the DOW will hit 30K in two years. However, I can lay out the perfect scenario that sees it at 10K by the end of this year.  I can lay out a picture plot where Trump and Putin work together, lift sanctions, enter more trade deals and tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs come together. I can also see Trump ridiculed on the Media and the Military complex as being a treasonous Russian puppet, to the point where he has no choice but to keep the status quo.  See my point folks?
 
We’ve never seen an election like we just saw. We never had a President Elect quite like Trump. We’ve never had such a politically correct time, or a time where “feelings” seem to count more than truth. We’ve never been in this much debt, yet we’ve never seen the market so high. We’ve never seen more cops being shot, or more Chicagoans gunned down. We’ve never seen the Government of Japan be the market’s biggest stock holder, we’ve never seen the Swiss central bank own billions of Apple computer.

I could go on and on folks. This is a year of “never seen before” things, and if you’ve never seen it before, can you really figure out how it’s going to play out? I can’t, not this year. It’s information overload.  All I can predict with any hint of certainty is that this year is going to be very interesting, and before it is over, we’re all going to see things we never thought we’d see. Ever. That I can promise you.
 
I continue to be a big believer in the metals, as so many things have to go right to get through all this, I like the stability/security of them.  That’s one area I’m not swayed about.
 
Okay this has run too long already, so let me sign off by wishing you a healthy, happy year. Yes I think it’s going to be quite interesting, with lots of twists and turns. But in the end if you’ve got your health and the means to have a roof over your head, food and drink, and friends and family to share it, the year will be just fine.  Happy New Year folks

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