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1.25.2017 - Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Until It Can’t?

Over the years, we’ve talked many times about the fact that Central banks are now enormous buyers of actual stocks. We’ve mentioned how the Bank of Japan owns almost ¾ of all their market ETF’s. How the Swiss national bank has bought literally billions of dollars worth of AAPl,  and MSFT and XOM.  We’ve talked about how companies have borrowed money at virtually zero interest rates and used the money to buy up their own shares of stock.

6.5.2016 - Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

38K

 

So, Friday was “jobs” day. The first Friday of every month brings us the “non farm payroll report”.  This piece of data is watched by every market participant, because the labor data is correlated to monetary policy such as interest rates.

 

The Fed’s have been sitting on their pedestal telling us how wonderful the recovery is and that the labor markets are so hot that they’re worried about overheating. For months now they’ve had a smug attitude about how many jobs there are, and that their monetary policy has indeed saved the world.

6.3.2016 - Jobs Report Worst Since 2010! Bookmark

The non farm payroll report just hit and estimates were for a gain of 160 - 190K. Well get this...we got a whopping 38K. But it was much worse than that. The last two months were revised DOWN by 59K jobs, the labor force participation rate fell and the Household report posted just 24K.  Shall I go on? Sure...the Fed's Birth/death model added 224K jobs to the report. Jobs that don't exist. So without that addition we'd have just 180K jobs. 

12.5.2014 321K Jobs?!!! Bookmark

It is indeed Friday, and I don't want to be the bearer of bad news, so I'll keep this sort of tame. the Government says we created 321K jobs in November, a number not seen in years. Okay fine, I'd love to believe that. But I have issues with it. Why did the household survey only show an increase of 4K Jobs? Why was there an increase of 77K part time jobs, while a decrease of 150K full time jobs? Why was the labor force participation rate even lower?

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