We Identify Economic Trends Long Before the 'Experts'

• On a Looming Recession...
  May 14, 2000
  "One thing that is clear, though, that needs to be expressed: Rate hikes generally take 6 to 9 months to trickle down into the actual economy and slow things down. Now that we have already gotten 6 increases, it is slowly starting to take its bite. Recent CPI and PPI reports have been very strong, but the 'fringes' are indeed starting to feel the heat."
  May 21, 2000
  "Not only is the act of raising rates bad for the stock market, there is a growing number of analysts (and myself) who think that the natural cycle of the economy was just beginning to slow on its own and that by shoving these rate hikes at us, we very well could get thrown into a 'mini recession.'"
  The Outcome
  January 8, 2001, from Reuters: "The sputtering U.S. economy will sink into recession in the first half of 2001, snapping its longest expansion in history, Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley Dean Witter forecast."

• On the Shaky Eurodollar...
  June 11, 2000
  "I tend to think that as long as the Euro stays above 90 cents to the dollar, our own markets will not be 'upset' and we can move higher. But, if several of the European countries keep selling gold and printing money, they could weaken the Euro again … If that happens and the Euro falls again, we will feel the effects of it here again in our own stocks."
  The Outcome
  The Euro slipped to 83, helping take the US stock market down.

• On Precious Metals...
  August 8, 2000
  "...if any of you follow the metals market at all you will see some very interesting things going on. Palladium is at an all-time high. Just last year it was trading at about 400 per ounce and just a few weeks ago it was over 900. Why? Because of several very interesting things going on there. The main supplier has always been Russia, but production problems and the fact they actually cut back on selling it has caused a bit of a 'squeeze.' But along with slowing production, demand is soaring! Why? Because palladium is the metal that auto manufacturers use in pollution control devices like catalytic converters. So as our government makes ever-stricter air quality guidelines, automakers have to use more and more palladium. With big demand and low supply, it is on fire.
  "Some of that fire has spilled into platinum and rhodium, two other metals they 'can' use instead of palladium, but it isn't as efficient and they have to use more of it, so for their 'cost basis' it's a wash. Still, platinum is up nicely. Palladium remains the metal of choice by far. (Taking a position in 'mining' companies that produce palladium, platinum and rhodium is a very wise choice)."
  The Outcome
  Palladium slid back to 700 before soaring to over 1000 by the end of the year.

• On the End of Interest-Rate Hikes...
  June 25, 2000
  "For the most part, our record of predicting the FED's decision (on raising or lowering interest rates) has been pretty good. I have lost track, but I think it stands somewhere around 20 and 3. (20 right, 3 wrong). So what do I think they are going to do at this meeting? Well, I 'think' they will be smart and do nothing, meaning no rate hike."
  The Outcome
  The FED did not raise rates at its June meeting, stood pat through the remainder of the year and lowered rates by a startling 50 basis points at the beginning of 2001 in the face of rapidly souring economic conditions

• On Oil...
  June 20/27, 2000
  " … if you are patient, we think the resurgence in oil rig day rates and the 'spread income' from a barrel of oil's price will indeed keep the oil sector in play for the rest of the year. OPEC's decision to raise output by about 700K barrels a day (plus their cheating on quotas which they always do) means we have about a million barrels of oil a day coming on line. That should pull barrel prices down to about 25 bucks and at that price everyone makes dollars."
  The Outcome
  Hovering in the mid-30s during the summer, the price of a barrel of oil drifted down to 26 by December.

• On Other Energy Sources...
  October 5, 2000
  "Natural gas is going to be a real problem as is propane … Electricity is a massive problem and the guys who generate the stuff, or make ways to make what we have go further are ultimately going to win."
  The Outcome
  The price of natural gas doubled and propane rose 33%.