A Word From Bob

As Seen & Heard

Contact Us

rss

Invest Yourself

The FREE Investment Newsletter That Really Works!

3.8.2020 - Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

So Many Questions
 
What a wild week it’s been. Last week (Feb 24 - 28) the market put in that enormous plunge, peeling off more points, faster than ever seen before. Then this past week of course, was the most volatile chop we’ve ever seen.
 
It was a strange time for me, in a way. Why? Well, early last week I learned that my Father in law had sold his house, to move into something more fitting for an older person, that being a much smaller place. Well, he had several big boxes of “stuff” that was my late Mother in law’s, and had been gifted to my wife. It was much too heavy and fragile to ship, so, I flew to N.J, rented a mini van and drove it all back.

 
Monday I was completely out of the loop, loading things up at the Inlaw’s house and visiting with him and my brother in law. Then Tuesday I began my two day drive back home. The Van had XM Satellite radio, and all along the drive on Tuesday and Wednesday, I was listening to the financial stations. 1000 points, up, oops! 900 down! Ooops, 1200 up! It was wild to listen to, and “wilder” to hear their explanations for all the gyrations.
 
There’s 3 main topics of conversation out there, and each one of them demands it’s own novel length discussion. So, we can’t accomplish that this morning. But we can hit some of the highlights anyway.
 
The topics are: Corona-virus, the Democratic Political situation, and of course the stock market.
 
I want to start with the malarkey that is indeed the Democratic Political theatre. Everyone seemed shocked that Biden did so well on “Super Tuesday” and how it spelled the end of Bloomberg’s run. First it was Pete Buttigieg just ahead of Super Tuesday, then Bloomberg, and soon after Warren called it quits. Folks, this was SCRIPTED like a bad play.
 
First of all, Bloomberg didn’t want to be President any more than I want to be the witch doctor of an Amazon tribe. So, why was he in it? Because none of the candidates running could raise any money. They were all begging for dollars. By running for President, he could spend umpteen millions in attack ads against Trump. He could literally give the DNC gobs and gobs of money.
 
That was his role. Bring the check book. Then their next act was to stop Bernie. Of course they had to stop Bernie. Not only didn’t the Democratic party want to be known as communists, they ( the Deep state swamp Creatures of DC, 99% of whom are Democrats) were scared crapless that if Bernie actually won, they’d all be out of a job. Bernie would appoint his “people”, out with the old, in with the new. They didn’t like that one bit, so he had to be stopped.
 
By the way, I’ve mentioned a zillion times that Democrats aren’t stupid, however, they’re often evil, and will do anything it takes to advance their agendas. Do you really think the Democratic party wants Creepy Joe? This poor senile creature, who can’t remember what state he’s in, or who he’s talking to? So if they know he’s incompetent, and literally going senile, why would they want him to run?
 
Because he’s going senile! Follow along with me. Biden knows where ALL the bodies are buried. He’s neck deep in corruptions that span decades. He was in CHARGE of looking at Ukrainian corruption situation, yet didn’t know his own son was on the board of the most corrupt Ukrainian company? Give me a break.
 
They needed a President that will keep all those buried bodies buried. So, they put the crook up for the run. But here’s the real twist. Theres’ a heck of a good chance that he’s going to pick up either Hillary, or Michelle Obama as VP. If he does that, you can bet that if he won, within a year, he’d announce he was stepping down over his mental health and “boom” Hitlery or Michelle would be president.

If the plan is NOT to do that, then the power brokers behind the scenes will be doing all the decision making, and Senile old Joe will be the spokesperson that implements their agendas. He’ll say or do what ever he’s told to do, while keeping the swamp intact. Senility is his strong point now.
 
Biden will indeed be their candidate. Bernie will be bought off again with a couple more houses. Let’s see if I’m right and the old crone or Michell get the nod for VP. Last year I thought it would be Michelle, but I’m leaning more toward the Queen criminal.
 
Moving onto the Virus. This thing is a mess. Italy has just quarantined the entire Milan area, as they have 6000 cases. Iran has thousands of cases. South Korea is in lock down. Cases around the US are popping up daily, in random states. NY has more every day, Washington has more every day. Georgia has some now, etc.
 
There’s a lot of problems with this thing. That’s because I am 100 percent of the belief it was created as a bio-weapon. Some people get the sniffles and it passes in days. Some people see their lungs fill up and they can’t breathe on their own. The elderly and those with health problems are getting hit badly.
 
I told you weeks and weeks ago, that it would not, could not be contained. The only thing you can do, is your personal hygiene. Wash those hands, try not to touch railings, handles, door knobs, MONEY, etc. Forget handshakes and the hugs. Keep your hands away from your face. Try and isolate yourself from people as much as you can.
 
It seems simplistic, but the ONLY way this thing gets inside you, is your eyes, nose and mouth. So anything that goes near those 3 things, has to be STERILE. On the surface, that sounds easy, but it is NOT.

 Let’s say you use an electronic cigarette. Every time you put that in your mouth you have to ask yourself...”did I touch the tip? Was my hand clean?’ How easy would it be, to push the exit door bar at your grocery store, and the minute you got outside, reached in your pocked for a vape hit? Probably happens a million times a day. But if someone was infected, that just coughed into their hands has pushed that bar, your hand might have it. Now your Vaper has it. Now it’s in your mouth.
 
See? This is NOT easy folks. You have to stay vigilant. Push the door open on the glass, a foot over the bar. Use hand sanitizer often. If you can’t find any to buy, MAKE some, it’s easy. Get some rubbing alcohol at 90 - 99% and mix it with Aloe gel. Go with 2/3rds cup of alcohol and 1/3rd the gel. WHISK it well to mix. Put it in a pump or squeeze bottle.
 
If you can’t even find Rubbing alcohol, scoot over to your biggest liquor dealer and buy a bottle of 151 proof or higher “ever clear”. Then mix that with the Aloe gel.
 
I don’t like fear mongering, and won’t start here. But I think there’s tens of thousands of cases out there right now, and because of it’s incubation period, tens of thousands don’t know they even have it, they didn’t get sick yet. We can’t avoid it, so the best plan is as I’ve said from day one, isolation and hygiene. It’s all we can do. By the way, there is something good that will come of this. IF people really do start to pay attention to washing frequently and keeping their hands away from their faces, the amount of regular flu cases will be cut dramatically. Flu kills millions yearly. Watch for those numbers to drop, and that’s a good thing.
 
Finally, we’re onto the market. There’s not been a market like this one in a long long time. The moves are fast and furious, and for good reason. I’ve mentioned this so much, you’re tired of hearing of it, but supply chains, shut downs, canceled events, etc, are going to put a huge damper on our economic activity.
 
Consider supply chains, 2nd order chains, airlines, bus lines, trains,cruises, hoarding, kids not in school (where do they go?), self-quarantine responsibility, public transit, lost wages and jobs, zombie debt implosion, supply and demand shock, deflation outcomes, and a host of other ills.

All of that is coming on top of an economy that was already in the dumpster BEFORE the world knew of Corona-virus. This is why the Feds have already done an emergency 50 basis point cut, and will do more. This is why the Fed head Rosengren came out with this little beauty: “We should allow the central bank to purchase a broader range of securities or assets,” Mr. Rosengren said.
 
What’s that about? Remember a few weeks back I said that I believe they’re buying stocks via proxies already? Remember how I said they’d move on to literally buying stocks outright, and could even “freeze” the markets for a few months if they can’t keep it from crashing? Well Rosengren just made his case, he wants to buy stocks. He wants to buy Corporate bonds. Hey...that reminds me of something:
 
Sep 29, 2016 - The Federal Reserve might be able to help the U.S. economy in a future downturn if it could buy stocks and corporate bonds, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday.
 
Well I’ll be! Janet the “cookie lady” Yellen suggested this 4 years ago. You can bet it’s coming folks, just watch. Zero percent rates and a Fed that buys stocks with printed up money. Just like the Swiss and the BOJ. On top of that, there’s no doubt in my mind that they’re going to ban short selling in various sectors.
 
So, who’s going to win this battle? It all depends of the metrics. If this spreads as readily as the regular flu, but tends to be more lethal, the country is going to shut down, just like Italy’s 11 precincts are. People will be scared, and putting money into the market will NOT be their first choice.
 
My guess is that we very well may be in the early innings of an ugly ball game. While I think there’s a chance for the market to rise a bit higher this week, as it tries to run up ahead of the Fed meeting on the 18th, I feel it’s simply a bounce, and it will fail. I believe that over the next month or so, this market is going lower.
 
Granted, I’m just “some guy” on the Internet, right? I could be completely insane. But from where I stand, and from what I’m seeing ( like 750 billion in Repo operations since October, like Fed heads talking buying stocks, like global shipping crushed, like interest rates heading for zero, etc. etc,) I simply believe the 10 year old bull is on its last legs. It’s time for a recession, and this Virus, should be the black swan that kicks it off.
 
What about your 401K? What do you do with that? What about your IRA? What sort of stock moves should you make? Should you try and “weather this out, because history shows that over enough time markets tend to go up? Or, should you be bailing out and going short like we did in 2008?
 
You all have to make up your own mind about all this folks. For those of you who are Insider Club members, and/or Horizons “long term holds” members, you’re going to know what I’m doing on a daily and weekly basis. But for you FIR readers, I’ll simply leave it at “I think we’re going down significantly, but with counter rallies higher as the Feds do desperate things.”

Showing 0 Comment

Social Media

Archive

Bob Recommends