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Guess we weren’t nuts… Bookmark

It gets old when you’re called a conspiracy nut, or a tin foil hat wearing right wing whack-job; simply because you tell people things they’ve never heard before. I’ve been the recipient of such attacks for 25 years or more. Yeah, it gets old.

 

9.3.2014

Guess we weren’t nuts…

 

It gets old when you’re called a conspiracy nut, or a tin foil hat wearing right wing whack-job; simply because you tell people things they’ve never heard before. I’ve been the recipient of such attacks for 25 years or more. Yeah, it gets old.

But one thing us so-called conspiracy nuts have on our side is time. Time is not only the great healer; it is the ultimate truth teller. Given enough time, the truth of virtually every topic eventually makes it to the surface, like a bubble working its way from the ocean floor to the surface. It might have to bump into therm-oclines and sea weed, its trip might get delayed here and there, but eventually it pops free of the water.

For untold years we’ve been on record saying that the Central banks of the world are active participants in the markets. We’ve called them by various names and there’s the very distinct possibility there are indeed more than just a few groups of these market manipulators. In the past, the term “plunge patrol team” was a common term for us to use, as we’d often see a market perched on the verge of rolling over…only to see “someone” come out of the blue and save the day with a billion dollar futures order.

 

So after years of people rolling their eyes and snickering at the suggestion it was the central banks doing the behind the scenes buying, we found out a few months back that Central Banks had bought up some incredible 29 trillion dollars worth of stocks and equity based assets. For the first time, the cat was at least poking its head out of the bag. Now however the bag has been torn asunder and the “cat is out”.

A little snooping around the US commodity Futures Trading Commission by Nanex’s Eric Hunsader, discovered that not only do Central banks play in the stock market, they play in virtually every area of trading, from commodities to stock options, to forex, to you name it. In FACT the CME even has….wait for it…. A Central Bank Incentive Program for price breaks on trading!!

Because they appear to have “freaked out” about their little price list for Central bankers; and changed the link location to the fee schedule, I suspect they’re a bit embarrassed that this has made the alternative news circuit. But I found something just as good….Here’s an actual Email from the CME to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that shows the “incentive program” and the prices of the different articles that they can enjoy “trading”.

http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public/@rulesandproducts/documents/ifdocs/rul012914cmecbotnymexandcomex1.pdf

I do indeed suggest you visit that and see for yourself that Central bankers not only trade in the markets…they get specialized prices from the exchanges so that they have an incentive to do more!

Okay, so again we get to say “score 1 for the conspiracy nuts of the world!” because obviously we were right about the Central bankers actually being market participants. I’d have to say that after learning that they’ve amassed 29 trillion worth of holdings around the world, and now seeing that there’s an actual incentive program for Central bankers to be even more involved, the issue is now put to bed. It wasn’t conspiracy, it wasn’t crazy talk.. we just didn’t have the physical proof. Now we do. Issue settled.

But unfortunately the issue is NOT settled. It just opens the ultimate can of worms. I need you all to think about this and think about it seriously for more than a nano-second. Supply and demand are supposed to be the basis for price discovery. You place a futures order against a commodity such as corn or beef or even oil and petroleum goods based on your expectation of prices given the gamut of supply, weather, storage, shipping, etc. But what happens when you’re facing off against a Central bank? They have unlimited pockets folks.

Whether you love her or hate her, Ann Barnhardt is a pretty sharp gal. So I fully enjoyed her banter when we exposed her to this lunacy. I’m going to quote her reaction…

There is no acid-trip rabbit hole deep enough to match the depths of insanity that have now been plumbed.

Are we fuzzy on what a “Central Bank” is? Well, let’s do the definition just so everyone is crystal, crystal clear on this:

Central Bank: an institution that manages a state’s currency, money supply, and interest rates. Central banks also usually oversee the commercial banking system of their respective countries. In contrast to a commercial bank, a central bank possesses a monopoly on increasing the amount of money in the nation, and usually also prints the national currency, which usually serves as the nation’s legal tender.

Um, yeah.

Sooooo do you think that it is a tiny bit problematic for entities that PRINT MONEY to trade equity, currency and commodity markets?

Do you think it is problematic that an entity that can print theoretically infinite amounts of money IN ORDER TO MEET ITS MARGIN CALLS can trade massively leveraged markets?

Do you think it is problematic that entities that can stand theoretically infinite losses, who can print their way out of ANY position with effectively zero need to ever close out a position, and thus utterly destroy any connection whatsoever of the markets to REALITY, do you think that might just present a tiny bit of a market integrity issue? Just a smidge??

I want someone to explain to me how honest cash-derivative basis convergence can possibly, possibly happen if one side of the market has an infinite supply of funds, and thus for whom the entire notion of “losses” becomes a complete irrelevancy. Please. I’m all ears.

I want to know how arbitrage can occur in that environment.

And perhaps THE ENTIRE POINT:

I WANT TO KNOW HOW ANY DERIVATIVE MARKET CAN POSSIBLY REMAIN SUBJECT TO ITS UNDERLYING CASH PRODUCT/COMMODITY IF THERE IS NO WAY TO FORCE PRICE CONVERGENCE BECAUSE ONE SIDE HAS AN INFINITE SUPPLY OF MONEY.

I WANT TO KNOW HOW THE CASH MARKETS ARE NOT THEN PERVERSELY DRIVEN AND THEIR PRICES “SET” BY THEIR DERIVATIVE MARKETS, EVEN UNTO COMPLETE IRRATIONALITY AND UTTER DELINKAGE FROM REALITY, WHEN ENTITIES WHO CAN PRINT THEIR OWN MONEY ARE TRADING DERIVATIVES.

Food. Energy. Currencies. Precious metals. Interest rates. Equities (stocks).

Now we know why these flash crashes happen. Now we know how it is that super-massive orders and trades have wrought havoc on the markets – running stops and clearing everyone and everything on the other side out in quantities that surpassed the sizes of any possible private market participant. Central banks. You people are trying to trade against someone with an infinite supply of money.

The United States Federal Reserve Bank is trading the markets through a super-massive hedge fund/ high frequency churn house called Citadel. Now we know why Citadel is levered-up to the jaw-dropping extent that it is: Why fear leverage when your number one client meets its margin calls by PRINTING US DOLLARS

I think she quite eloquently summed it up. I could have injected some more questions into the mix, but she did a fine job. The raging cat is out of the bag. If the Central banks are trading ( they are) and they have unlimited ability to stay in a trade ( they do) then it is obvious that they not only have the ability to move markets ( they do) but to make them bend to their will.

Now you all see the EXACT reason I have said for over a decade that I don’t care about the fundamentals any more. I don’t want to hear about the supposed earnings or product launches or what have you. The only thing that matters is this… do the “big boyz” want that stock/commodity/currency/etc. up or do they want it down? That’s all that matters folks. The criminals are driving the bus.

Stocks do NOT go up any more because of sound fundamentals. That boat sailed away with your Grand Pappy. Stocks go up, and often quickly down…because CENTRAL BANKS, and huge money institutions drive them there. You can have the best business in America, make a lot of money, pay a dividend… and you’re stock will sit there and never move like a mushroom on a log without the big boyz buying it. Likewise you can have a company with no earnings, no prospect of earnings, and it soars to unimaginable heights because the institutions drove it there.

For the past few years, the “big boyz” wanted the stock market higher. The ONLY way it could get there was a coordinated effort between Central Bankers, and big money institutions. But why? Is it all because of the “look good/feel good” thing? Is it all just to enrich the bankers and Wall Street? No it isn’t. This is all part of the big global currency reset I’ve been harping on for almost two years now.

These wars we see in the Middle East around oil States. The coup in Ukraine. The flexing of muscle in the South China Sea. Japan changing its constitution to allow for its own military. All these things and more to come are the prelude to the global “reset” that will usher in currency revaluations, debt forgiveness and restructuring and the release of the SDR as the new global reserve currency.

Having the Holiday fall into Monday did indeed set me back a bit, so I’m not going to try and launch into a full discussion of this topic today. But you can suffice it to say, I will be again get to declare victory in my prediction that this reset is 1) coming, 2) already being implemented and 3) will cause even more saber rattling and jostling for position as each country tries to expand its “ownership” of key resources. It sounds “conspiracy nuttish” but then again…so did the idea of Central banks trading the markets.

We’ll discuss more about the Reset and what all these things have in common on the weekend.

The Market….

On the first day of trading in this Holiday shortened week, the market was a bit sluggish, working off its weekend hangover. But midway through the day the DOW dipped about 80 points out of “nowhere”. But it wasn’t a nowhere; as news had hit the wires that yet another terrorist beheading of a journalist had been “leaked”.

This ISIS crew does have the power to move markets; because when they do these things, we know there’s going to be a retaliation and escalation of “boots on the ground”. That always takes a bit of a market toll.

But I had told our Insiders Club members that I wasn’t convinced it was going to be a real sell off and that if we saw them cover their shorts in the last hour of trading, we could consider it a “one day event”. Well sure enough, from down 80 points, the market forced it’s way back up to close the day down just 40ish.

Today we woke up to bright green futures. Why? As ugly as this sounds, it is however true… the Ukranians put out a blurb saying a cease fire had been reached with the Russians. Well that would indeed be good news, right? Sure. The problem however is that Russia responded by saying basically “we didn’t enter a cease fire, because we’re not fighting in Ukraine”. Oops.

But the algo’s didn’t want to hear it. They had the futures up and they were going to spin anything they could find into good news. So we had the S&P at yet another all-time high shortly after the open. But it couldn’t hold. Once again the push to bust free past the recent all-time highs ran out of gas and we ended the day slightly lower on the S&P, 10 points higher on the DOW.

Tomorrow is no walk in the park day to try and figure on. Why? Because Friday we get the non farm payroll report. You can bet that’s going to be doctored up to look just fabulous. Yet the reaction from the Street might be counter-intuitive. They might decide that it’s so good that the Fed will hike rates sooner, and thus sell some stock. Besides we still have the problem of the Fed’s halting QE in October.

Now here’s where I disagree with a lot of really smart folks and maybe I’ll be made to look foolish, but we’ll see. Most of the alternative market folks I know that carry big names such as Gerald Celente for example are flat convinced the Fed’s will not end QE and will actually reverse course and start a new program. I disagree.

I said all the way back in September of last year that if the Fed’s start tapering QE, and don’t end it by June/July of this year then “something major has changed”. Well they didn’t end it, they tapered each month just like they said they would. Now they say they’re going to end it, and they WILL. Why? Because this is all akin to a psy-ops situation now.

The economy stinks, the debts are too large, and yet for the first time in HISTORY the Fed’s were tapering a program in the face of weakness in the economy. Don’t forget the first quarter’s negative GDP print. Yet they tapered away. I suspect they’re going to end their QE party and not only that, they’ll become more vocal about raising rates.

Huh? Look, the Fed heads are insane, psychopathic, and probably evil at heart. But they are NOT stupid. They know the economy is just barely alive and yet they’ve stated how well it’s doing over and over, and how it doesn’t need the level of stimulus, and how they might already be late concerning interest rates. Now, why would they be saying those sorts of things if they know the economy is just barely alive?

I think they’re waiting on the proper “event” that allows them to point to the event and say “See! We were doing great, the economy was growing and then THIS had to happen, wrecking everything!” In other words, they’re operating and telling us that things are so good, because they can then say “We had everything fixed, it was that darned war in Ukraine,” or it was “the ISIS people fomenting trouble between Iran and Iraq” or what have you, as the cause for the lousy economy. The bankers learned 400 years ago to always have something to point to as the cause for everyone’s misery. They refuse to be blamed for anything.

On top of that, it fits right into the SDR picture that I’ll talk with you about on the Weekend.

So to wrap up, I suspect tomorrow is going to be a lot like today. I think we’ll wander around the flat line with no one making any big moves ahead of the jobs report on Friday. After that, they’ll make their decision about pulling out, or pushing the market higher into September, a month not generally very generous to stock markets. I’ll see you all on the weekend.

 

PS..  If you’d like to see the exact stocks/options/metals and 401K moves we will be looking at for this week, please consider becoming a member of the “insiders club”.









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Avatar  Anonymous 5 years agoReply

"Bob,

I have been a subscriber off and on for the past eight years and have always found your newsletter to be quite informative and entertaining. Until recently, I never really profited financially much because I basically stayed out of the market. Your rantings kept my two boys' college funds in cash.(they are both in college now) Your insight kept my 401-K in cash. I don't know how much I believed your opinions, but I used your logic to keep me financially safe. I reasoned that I might not gain much, but then again I wouldn't lose money that is essential to my family's well-being.
Thank-you for the education. You have proven yourself to be an astute observer of economics. All of your "crazy" statements have come to pass and you definitely deserve congratulations for your wisdom and hard work. I don't know how I ever found your newsletter, but I am very grateful that I did."

Avatar  Garry 5 years agoReply

"Bob, I just wanted to write and thank you for all you do with your letter and keeping us informed. I mostly use your advice for my retirement accounts. I can only go long in those accounts and can't short the market. When you think the market is going to bounce and go up, I make sure that I’m in the market. When you short it or get out, then I go to the stable fund. Even though I didn't make much money this past year, you kept me from losing my shirt. I have lots of co-workers complaining about losing 20-30%, so in a sense, if you don’t lose it then it’s like making money. I love reading your letter. Keep up the good work!"

Avatar  Ted 5 years agoReply

"Bob - There are prophets and parrots. There are very few prophets. You are a prophet (thank you!) along with jim rodgers, fleckenstein, a few minyanville professors, peter schiff to name a few of the few. Prophets identify trends and predict the future.The rest are parrots... basically parroting prophets after its already happened or sometimes parroting bullshit that isn't even correct... larry kudlow for instance. you have made some excellent macro calls and as we both know, loading up and catching one right is where the $ is!
thanks again for your newsletter"

Avatar  Mike 5 years agoReply

"Bob, Thanks a bunch for your stock recommendations. The account I use to trade stocks is up 25% this past year (08) thanks to your advice. The big winner was EDU. I got in at 36.60 and it recently hit 56.70, for a 55% gain!"

Avatar  Lahrs 5 years agoReply

"First wish you all the best for the New Year and I believe all the credits should be given for forecasting the financial meltdown which according to several “experts” few if any could have forecasted but this is exactly what you did.So I guess you belong to a very exclusive group of people now and I think you should feel proud about that."

Avatar  Anonymous 5 years agoReply

"Bob,

I have been a subscriber off and on for the past eight years and have always found your newsletter to be quite informative and entertaining. Until recently, I never really profited financially much because I basically stayed out of the market. Your rantings kept my two boys' college funds in cash.(they are both in college now) Your insight kept my 401-K in cash. I don't know how much I believed your opinions, but I used your logic to keep me financially safe. I reasoned that I might not gain much, but then again I wouldn't lose money that is essential to my family's well-being.
Thank-you for the education. You have proven yourself to be an astute observer of economics. All of your "crazy" statements have come to pass and you definitely deserve congratulations for your wisdom and hard work. I don't know how I ever found your newsletter, but I am very grateful that I did."

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