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4.12.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark


IMPORTANT NOTE>

Before we get to the meat and potatoes of today’s economic conversation, I feel obligated at this point to make a couple remarks concerning e-mail’s I’ve received from several people concerning Phil’s Gang.  As you all know I merged with them back in September, but have recently separated myself from them. It was a mutual agreement. I won’t get into the nitty-gritty of the how’s and why’s, let’s just say there was a management change there and we both agreed that it would be best for all if we just parted ways. No harm, no foul.

IMPORTANT NOTE>

Before we get to the meat and potatoes of today’s economic conversation, I feel obligated at this point to make a couple remarks concerning e-mail’s I’ve received from several people concerning Phil’s Gang.  As you all know I merged with them back in September, but have recently separated myself from them. It was a mutual agreement. I won’t get into the nitty-gritty of the how’s and why’s, let’s just say there was a management change there and we both agreed that it would be best for all if we just parted ways. No harm, no foul.

However, I’ve been getting email from some folks that joined Phil’s gang that “followed me over”, asking questions about some curious email’s they had received from Phil’s gang concerning Donnie. I have seen a couple of those email’s and I can understand the concern.  Considering that some of you may have joined Phil’s gang because you trusted my opinion that they are a good outfit, I don’t like hearing about any infighting that might have you concerned.   You all know me well enough to know I would never steer you over to a place I didn’t believe in.

The following is a letter Donnie sent to me, knowing I was fielding questions that I wasn’t comfortable responding to.  For any further questions, please contact him directly.

Bob,

I know you been flooded with questions regarding my absence at Phil's Gang and now there is this ridiculous smear campaign being run by Marta and Phil to try to discredit me. Below and attached is a statement that I have prepared for those who ask you about these completely false accusations.

I enjoyed the time that we worked together. I apologize that Marta and Phil ended everything the way that they did. Although I had no control over their actions, I still am regretful that everything turned out this way. Professionally, I have the utmost respect for you and the insight that you have into the markets. On a personal level I want to thank you for being a genuine person who adheres to your morals above anything else.


Your friend,
Donnie


My statement to anyone inquiring about these false accusations:


April 11th, 2015


I know many of you have been wondering what has been going on with me at Phil’s Gang over the last few weeks. I apologize that I have been unable to communicate with you regarding the obvious changes that have taken place. I assure you that the truth will come out and when it does I will reveal the entire story which I think you will find wildly interesting. I believe in full transparency and that is what you deserve. Unfortunately, because of malicious accusations being directed at me from Phil and Marta, I must still be cautious with what I divulge. Once my legal team says I'm clear to "tell the story" I most certainly will.  I appreciate your patience during this time.

An accusatory and potentially libelous statement was sent out by Steve Celeste, the support technician at Phil’s Gang, who is also the son of Marta and Phil Grande. I can only suspect it was done so at their direction. Let me assure you that No criminal charges have been filed against me because no crime has ever been committed. It is disingenuous for them to insinuate such a thing to say the least. I have never had anything beyond a speeding ticket!

I must therefore apologize for the inappropriate behavior of my former colleagues. It is unfortunate that I have been left no choice but to defend myself from these absurd and erroneous statements. I assure you that I will preserve my reputation to the fullest extent legally permitted by law. These bullying and intimidating tactics will not sway my resolve in this matter.

To calm everyone’s nerves regarding this matter, Marta and Phil are wrongly claiming that I made payments to company credit cards that weren't authorized. These cards held company charges but are personally guaranteed by me. There was an ACH that was made (as was done every single month for the prior months) which they reversed and falsely claim was done fraudulently. Marta and Phil have now missed substantial payments to these credit cards and refuse to make any payments.

I appreciate the overwhelming support from all of you. I would also like to once again take this opportunity to apologize for not being able to respond to those of you who have emailed me in recent weeks. If any of you have any questions, please feel free to contact me via my personal email dwcogswell@yahoo.com.

Sincerely,
Donald Cogswell




Building the Ark

I had a short conversation over the phone with a gent that reads our newsletters and I have to say I was humbled, because he said some nice things about us.  The part that got me was when he said something along the lines of  “lots of people can predict that rain is coming, but few tell us how to build the boat, and you do that…..”  Wow. Thanks for the analogy.

It is true that you can go to any of a thousand different web sites and read all about the debts that are too big, the derivative disaster, the broke Nations, the mathematical certainty that it can’t be paid back, etc etc. But it is also true that except in vague terms, not too many places tell you what to do about it.

It has been my mission statement from day one to 1) try and find the truth about things, 2) present those truths to you all and 3) give you some form of actionable plan to deal with these things. It’s not an easy business to be in. Why? Because you’re only as good as your last prediction that came through.

Let me give you an example. When we started pounding the table on Gold in mid 2000 we were scorned, laughed at, told we “don’t get the new economy”, etc. But by 2006 after gold had risen a couple hundred percent, some how we were praised for being so smart. By the time gold hit its high of 1900 dollars the ounce in 2011, we were becoming noted as gold guru’s. ( hey, it wasn’t my opinion!)

But we never wavered on our “liking” of gold, despite the fact gold faded from those highs, all the way down to the 1200 level. As gold dropped, we went from being called guru’s, to being called stupid, overstayed our welcome, didn’t recognize the “recovery” and a ream of other interesting comments.  From hero to zero in a flash. Hey, I get it. This is the “dot com” world where everything has to happen in a flash or it’s yesterday’s news.

However the big trends don’t coincide with dot com time frames. Rome wasn’t the powerhouse of the world on Monday and a ruined civilization on Friday. It took time. Decades of time. Likewise, big economic trends don’t flip on a dime. The Euro was launched on January of 1999. To this day we’re still debating whether it will continue to exist.  So can be said for the “move East” as nation after nation decides to buddy up with China and the BRICS. Of course the entire US Dollar dominated world reserve wasn’t/isn’t going to change in a day. Or a month. Or even a year. It takes YEARS for such things to mature.

So what happens is that we see a mega-trend shaping up and we identify it. Then we suggest ways in which we might be able to get over it, around it, or hide from it. But if people don’t see instant gratification, they figure we blew it, and move on to the next hot topic of the day.  

The floods are coming, and you all are going to have to build your own ark. What your particular ark looks like may be different from mine, but some form of preparedness certainly makes a modicum of sense, no? Yes.

Consider this…on Friday GE announced it was selling GE capital and simultaneously buying back 50 BILLION worth of its own stock. Now, Jeff Immelt is a smart guy. Until a few years ago he held a seat on the board of the NY Federal reserve. GE capital was for years on end one of GE’s most important money makers. It allowed them to amass gigantic wealth in commercial real estate, etc. Now they’re going to sell all that, and raise money to push their stock price higher. Who does that benefit?

Does this plan make sense for the overall economy? For job growth and expansion? Hell no. It makes short term sense for the Insiders to make a killing, prop up the present time situation and create an exit plan.   

Why would GE sell off its FINANCIAL sector? If the financial framework was healthy as we are continually told, wouldn’t they want to even expand it more? They would indeed. But Immelt is an insider at very high levels. He knows that the financial system is damaged beyond repair. He knows a massive reset is in the works and he will take what he can get NOW, because he knows he won’t get it in the future.

So here I am talking about a global reset, a world wide currency revaluation. I’ve not only suggested, I’m predicting bank failures, bank holidays, bank bail in’s, seizing of bank deposits, and a hundred other nasty things. Yet while I’m spewing all this, the DOW is just a couple hundred points from the highest level ever achieved. Gold is stuck and going nowhere fast. Apple has people lining up to buy 20K dollar watches. 50 million dollar apartments fly off the shelf in NY. I must be nuts, right?  Maybe.

But I suspect that given enough time, my thoughts are going to come to fruition. It’s the timing that is always the problem. I cannot tell you the exact day. I can’t even tell you the exact year. But all that said, I feel we’re getting mighty close.

Let me present it like this, it might be easier. We’ve been at virtually zero percent interest rates for 6 years now. The Fed’s fess up to about 4 trillion in printing but we know they’ve done much more than that “off the books” ( remember we had to sue to find out that in 2008 they sent 16 trillion to Europe)  Yet after all that, our economy is barely clinging to life. We just had the worst jobs report in years. We’ve missed the estimates on  60 out of 70 economic reports.  It is clear that what they’ve done has held off anything horrible, but it didn’t create a healthy economy.

If all that didn’t work, will doubling down on even more money printing work? Nope. Or maybe take rates negative, will that work? Nope. Will a quadrillion worth of derivatives silently come to maturity with no issues? Nope. Well if none of the above works, what’s the alternative? We feel it’s a massive reset. Can any of you offer me up a different path? I’d be sure to listen.

I keep connecting the dots. Not long ago the G20 got together and literally changed the rules about what is and what is not a bank deposit and who’s entitled to get paid if the bank fails. Deposits are now classified as BANK HOLDINGS folks. The moment you make a deposit, the money is NO LONGER YOURS, it is the banks.  In other words if a bank fails now, it isn’t the senior debt holders that don’t get paid…YOU don’t get your money back. YOUR money goes to paying off the note holders. This is epic in scope.

Now connect up dots like that with GE getting out of the financial business. Hmmm. Interesting.  Then sprinkle in the raw data concerning the health of the American public. 57% have no retirement money. The Times reported that the “average American” is now worth 36% less than a decade ago. Consider that 93 million are not “in the labor force”. Now add those dots to things like the Jade Helm operation they’re holding in several states that’s supposed to be a training ground for learning urban fighting against terrorists, which looks a lot more like a practice run for martial law. Then add that together with the DHS buying a almost 2 billion worth of hollow point ammo, tanks, heavy armament, and now their listing for bidding on “less lethal” projectiles and flash bangs.

Add those dots together and what do you get? You get a picture that says banks are insolvent and looking to use deposit money to get as far as they can. You see “someone” mighty nervous about urban uprisings as DHS and now the military are making it clear they’re preparing for “something”. You see ultimate insiders bailing out of the financial system. You see American citizens living paycheck to paycheck, praying they don’t lose their job. You get a very unpretty picture.

So then the question becomes, IF I’m right and I think I am that some serious trouble, trouble much worse than 2008 is headed our way, what do YOU do about it? First you have to try and figure out how bad it will be and then make your choices from there.

I can lay out a scenario that would scare the hell out of the most staunch horror movie watcher. What if, just what if a series of banks were electronically hacked? What if next Monday all ATM’s were down, ALL credit card processing was down, and banks closed their doors for fear of bank runs?  What would society look like after just a day? How about 3? A week?   Stores would be bone bare in hours. Cars would start stalling out on roads for lack of gas. I could go on and on, and yet that’s just from a well organized hack attack.

What if after a massive hack attack, all account balances read zero? Do you have paper back up’s to prove you had money in that bank? Can you prove you didn’t take all your money out since your last statement?  See folks… that’s just a simple hack job that I’m sure some of our enemies could pull off any time they want and it would disrupt your lives in ways you never dreamed.

But what if all the banks went dark, and they “blamed” hacking for it, yet the truth is they used a hack as the EXCUSE to wipe out deposits and redesign the system?? Impossible you say? Ask the folks in Cyprus. Remember I’m on record saying the Fed’s are going to continue to tell us everything is marvelous, and we’ve got good growth as they wait for some “event” that is so horrible they can blame all of our collapse on it. Could that event be a massive “false flag hacking?”  Hmmm. Could it be an EMP attack? Maybe a dirty nuke somewhere? Hmmm.

My point is that YOU have to decide for yourself how “dark” you will let your mind wander about all this. Could you envision some of it? All of it? None of it? That’s all up to you. Once you have the parameters of what you will let yourself believe “could” happen, then you need to take the appropriate steps to get yourself through those times.

When we consider an economic collapse that could spiral into ways we never really imagined, then you have to begin to categorize your response from mild to extreme. For instance maybe you are “okay” figuring that you need a few hundred bucks in cash stashed away somehere. Or you might think that along with some cash you might want a few stacks of silver and gold coins. Or you might think you need a bunker in the foothills with redundant short wave, food and water supplies and a year worth of ammo. I don’t know where your mind will let you travel.

Maybe you should decide to open a foreign bank account in Hong Kong. Maybe you should buy some property in Panama. Maybe maybe maybe…. There’s a lot of choices you can make.

In a different time in America, we all knew exactly what to do. Come out of school, get a good job, save some money, do some investing, buy the house, raise the kids and get a pension and SS benefits and slide into your golden years. But those days are gone, you cannot deny that. The rules have changed and EVEN if nothing terrible ever happened, there’s no question that things are considerably different now. In 2015 you don’t come out of high school and get a nice manufacturing job that pays you enough to support a family and buy your home. The world is different, and I argue…not for the better.

You are all going to have to build your own ark. The boat that protects you from the flood that I feel is coming.  My job is to help you build that boat. But where do I start? From what level?  Do you want to know how to open foreign accounts? Do you want to understand what gold and silver to buy? What to do with your savings? How about your 401K?  All the above?   

Let me wrap with this, because it is important and I repeat it a lot. I don’t want anything to happen. I want calmer cooler heads to figure a way out of all our mess and my kids grow up and they have kids and we go watch them play a tooth in the school play.  I just cannot for the life of me see that happening. I think we’re going to get an event or two, and things could get ugly for a while. I simply want to let you in on the things I know will HELP get you through a tough time.   We’ll Start some basics on Wednesday.

The Market

It took them several days of trying and several days of backing and filling, but they finally managed to send the market up through some short term resistance on Thursday. All week I’d been telling my Insiders Club members that as long as the S&P was between 2056 on the low end and 2086 on the upper end, we were trapped in a bit of “no man’s land” where we’d just bounce around.

I told them I’d hold my positions inside that area, but sell them on a close under 2056 and that I’d buy more on a move over 2086 for a market close.  Well, Thursday they got the job done and we ended the session with a closing price of S&P 2091. On Friday we got the follow through and the S&P closed at 2102.

We did go ahead and pick up some more stocks, and now the next milestone is 2108 which isn’t very far away. If we can get up and over that, there’s little question that we’ll challenge the all time S&P highs at 2117. Will we get there? Probably. Will we bust through that and go on to set even higher highs? That’s a lot harder to say. That all time high close of 2117 is going to be a tough nut to break.

This coming week, the floodgates of earnings reports will spill open and we’ll get to hear the confessions from hundreds of companies. While they will “proforma” and “one time charge off” their way to all the accounting glory they can muster, the real tell will be the revenues themselves. You can bet that you’re going to see a ton of companies “beat the estimates on lower revenues”. Well revenues means sales folks. Transaction. Each quarter they make up more and more ways to account themselves to higher earnings, like buying back stock, reporting non-GAAP numbers, etc.  But watch the revenue numbers for Quarter over quarter and Year over year comparisons. They’ll be lower.

I do think we’ll get “to” the all time highs. I am not so certain we’ll get past them in any meaningful way. That March 2nd high could end up serving as a market “top” for a long long time. In the meantime, we’ll lean long and pick up some swing trades, but we won’t overstay our invite. This isn’t time to buy and hold things.







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