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6.17.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Who Wants War?

For thousands of years; visionaries, prophets, spiritual leaders and the like have preached to mankind that he should love his neighbors, and enjoy this earth that’s been so graciously given to him. It’s been a constant theme from “the people” throughout the ages, and even culminating in such songs as “give peace a chance” by the Beatles in 1969. But unfortunately, peace has never come to this planet.
Who Wants War?

For thousands of years; visionaries, prophets, spiritual leaders and the like have preached to mankind that he should love his neighbors, and enjoy this earth that’s been so graciously given to him. It’s been a constant theme from “the people” throughout the ages, and even culminating in such songs as “give peace a chance” by the Beatles in 1969. But unfortunately, peace has never come to this planet.

On any particular day in any particular year you can do the searches and find dozens if not hundreds of “wars” being raged around our planet. Whether it’s the big stuff like England against Spain, or the US against Germany, or the little skirmishes that barely make the nightly news, no matter how you slice it, man is a violent beast.  Someone somewhere is always waging war on his brother. It might be fist to cuffs in a local bar, one religious sect against another, or a nation against nation. It will never end.

When we talk about nation against nation warmongering, it generally boils down to control and power issues. Some of it is just saber rattling posturing like North Korea tends to display so frequently, while some of it is higher stakes bluffing as we often see in the Asian Pacific. But one thing is and always has been a constant throughout history, sometimes the huffing and puffing goes wrong. World War I was started by a single gunshot, over a thousand miles away from where young men died in horrible conditions in the trenches.

If you’ve been a reader for any length of time you notice that I make reference to the Ukraine a lot. I do it because it is important to understand the high stakes poker game that goes on at the upper levels of Government, levels you are NOT allowed to know.  So first let me give you a quick primer of what REALLY happened there.

The standing Government of Ukraine was 1) elected by the people , 2) legal, 3) peaceful. However the standing head of Ukraine at that time, was a man name Yanukovich, and he refused to sign away his country into the European madness of the EU association. Well that infuriated the US and its NATO allies because they had grand visions of expanding NATO right into the Ukraine. With Yanuko saying no, we plotted a coup to have him expelled and a puppet of the West inserted. Our country, the US of A spent approximately 5 billion dollars to help that take place.

To go along with the covert operation they had to make Russia the bad guy. See we had a major problem with Russia. They were doing things right. They were NOT at war with anyone. They have incredible natural resources. Their country was growing like a weed and their middle class was enjoying prosperity they had never known.  They were partnering in deals with China and most of all, they were questioning the sanity of  doing global trade in US dollars, dollars that we have depreciated from $1.00 to just $0.06 cents in the last hundred years.

The US has been able to live above its means for many decades because we are the world’s reserve currency. To have a nation state as big and powerful and successful as Russia looking to upset the US applecart, they had to find ways to make Russia the big boogeyman. So they blamed the uprisings in Ukraine on Russia. They said it was Russians trying to take over northern Europe. They compared Putin with Stalin and Hitler, and said he was a mad man bent of expanding Russia throughout the Baltics.

Yet where was the proof of this? What country exactly was it Russia was taking over? People will say “he took over Crimea!”  No he didn’t. Those people voted on being Ukrainian or Russian and they picked Russia. Not to mention Crimea had been a Russian territory for hundreds of years, and was its sole protector. The fact is Russia was doing commerce with all of Europe, was a very good neighbor, sent humanitarian help any time there was a terror problem or a natural disaster, etc. We made them out to be deranged lunatics.

Okay, so what’s my point? My point is that a moral person might say to himself…well we didn’t get the results we were looking for out of Ukraine because the Eastern half of Ukraine wants no part of this Western take over, maybe we should back out. Well again I said a moral person. The people pushing things at the highest levels aren’t moral. They are often outright evil to be honest. So instead of realizing that the Eastern half of Ukraine is not willing to give up their Russian heritage and just retreating, we’ve escalated the tensions even higher.

Here’s the deal. The Eastern Ukrainians had literally defeated the Ukraine armed forces. They could have marched into Kiev and took the place over. But it was the Russians themselves that said “don’t do it”, let’s continue to try diplomacy. Well that was a fine upstanding thing to do if they were dealing with fine upstanding people However when you’re dealing with slimeballs, all you get are broken agreements. Kiev itself broke all the ceasefire agreements, NOT the Russian friendly Eastern Ukraine’s. But again it was all blamed on Russia as they were supposedly sending armed columns into the area.

So then we’d hear of the Russians sending troops over into Ukraine. No, they didn’t. Now here’s where I need you all to pay attention. Was Russia Supporting the Eastern Ukrainians in their struggle against the West? You bet. But you have to understand the dynamics here. Russia isn’t sending food and blankets and small arms into Ukraine because they want to take it over like the idiots on TV tell you. Sorry, that’s just propaganda lies. As I said the Eastern Ukraine’s already had Ukraine won if they wanted it. They’re supporting them because they know if the East falls, the US will indeed plant more and more weapons right on Russia’s doorstep. The same US that has had Pentagon officials declare that we could indeed win a “first strike nuclear war”.

Now think about that. When Cold war Russia wanted to place nukes on Cuba back in the early 60’s, we had President Kennedy say no, you are not placing WMD’s just 90 miles off our coast. It was a tense time. Yet now in 2015, the US finds no problem placing NATO weapons, in Ukraine, with all manner of “stuff” pointed at Russian skies. Do you think Russia is okay with that? Well they’re not. So, they help the so called “rebels” so that eastern Ukraine remains “west free”.

All that said however, we are not one to quit a bad plan. In fact we’re notorious for going forward with the wrong things. So this past week we find that the US is getting ready to send more heavy weapons to the area. Consider this…

The Pentagon reportedly is poised to send heavy military equipment to Eastern Europe and the Baltic nations, as part of an effort to bolster U.S. forces there and send a message to Russia.

No final decision has yet been made, but Poland Defense Minister Tomasz Siemoniak said Sunday that decision will come "soon."

He confirmed in a tweet Sunday that he and U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter held talks about placing U.S. heavy army equipment in Poland last month.

"Decisions are near," he wrote.

But I think that what truly sums up the complete and utter twisting of facts is what we just learned concerning the US sending fighter jets into the theatre. Take a peek at this distortion of reality….

(CNN)The U.S. Air Force could be sending some of its most advanced warplanes to Europe in a show of force against Russian actions in Ukraine and elsewhere around the continent, the service's top civilian said Monday.

"The biggest threat on my mind is what's happening with Russia and the activities of Russia," Secretary of the Air Force Deborah James said during a visit to the Paris Air Show. "It's extremely worrisome on what's going on in the Ukraine."

Are you getting this?  I really hope so because this is a life changing stake of poker being played out. The Russians are praying that the Eastern Ukrainians keep the West from taking over all of Ukraine. They’ve been successful, but the US in its twisted logic is saying that Russia is still trying to take over the nation and be aggressive when it has done nothing of the sort.  So we are now going to send more heavy military into the area, and send more airforce jets into the area. I ask you, just who exactly is the aggressor here?

Now, it gets even stranger. Let’s suppose for a moment the East is successful in keeping the Western half of the Ukraine in the west. What’s the next game plan? My guess is that they start cranking up the sanctions and the rhetoric for Russia to “give back” Crimea, despite the fact that the people of Crimea don’t’ want to go back to Ukraine. But worse is if the East falls, you KNOW it’s just a matter of time before the West tries to move heavy arms, missiles and even nukes closer to the Russian border. A move the Putin, won’t accept any more than Kennedy did with Cuba.  A “hot war” would almost be inevitable.

Finally, here’s the kicker in all this, and most people are just too blind to see it. Because of the resistance fighters in Eastern Ukraine keeping US/Euro/NATO out of Ukraine, they are in a very real sense “saving the lives” of millions of Ukrainians across that nation. How? Because if they fail and the West moves in, you can bet there’s going to be a war, and tens of thousands of Ukrainians will die in the conflict.

Now you see why I keep harping on Ukraine. In it’s bid to keep control, the West ( The US and Europe) are desperate to keep Russia from growing and becoming another China, a nation we know we cannot  take down any longer. One is bad enough, two is unacceptable.  A strong Russia, combined in pacts with China, and instantly the US is absolutely NOT the global superpower any more. And in trying to keep the petro-dollar intact, they’re hell bent on dismantling Russia and making it toe the US line. Well that’s dangerous stuff folks.

It’s dangerous because Putin will indeed increase his defenses. He will build more missiles. He will show his power. We’re in a world where “lets give peace a chance” is desperately needed because frankly on the economic side of the ledger the whole world is in the toilet. Unfortunately it’s times like that, when more times than not, the bankers have instigated wars to boost their economies. Today seems no different.

The Market…

After a red day on Monday, they manufactured a big fat bounce on Tuesday, which pulled us right back and away from the edge of a scary cliff.  Let me explain…

A very large percentage of trading is executed by algo-bots. Computer programs that have been programmed to look for certain things to happen and then respond. Some of the triggers for buying and selling are resistance levels, support levels, MACD crosses, stochastics crosses, etc.

Sometimes the market indexes use “big” indicator levels such as the 50, 100 or 200 day moving averages. Well for quite a while the S&P has been using the 100 and 150 day as support levels. It falls under its 50, fades down to the 150 and then “boom” right back up it goes. And that’s exactly what happened this week. Monday the S&P reached down to the 150 day moving average and bounced up off of it. Tuesday they came in and powered us right up and over the 100 day.

But today was Fed day. Today was to be the day Janet Yellen and Co. were to tell the world of their decisions concerning interest rates and monetary policy, so after a good start to the trading day, where the DOW was up some 70 points early on, it faded off and we spent hours with the market just barely into the green. At noon for instance the DOW was up 18, the S&P up less than a point.

We got the official statement at 2 pm and of course they left rates unchanged, they suggested modest improvement in the economy, and employment is better. The initial reaction of the market was a whipsaw. We dropped 40 points then turned around and went green by 40, only to come back to “flat”.  We sat there waiting on Yellens press conference.
When she got on the podium and started speaking, I had forgotten how monotone and boring she sounds. It was true work to try and pay attention to her. But from where I stand, her entire discussion sounded quite hawkish. She hinted many times that the bulk of the members on the Fed felt that a rate hike this year seemed likely.

But interestingly the market was holding up really well. We had the DOW hit +93 points shortly after she started, which did kind of catch me off guard. But I guess I shouldn't have been shocked, they had to goose the market while she was suggesting moving rates up sometime in the year.

The longer she droned on an on, the more the market wiggled. From a high of +93, we were up just +42 for a while, then back to + 79 and down to +59. Up and down like a yoyo.  In the last fifteen minutes, I actually thought we might go red, as we were up just 21, but we coasted into the close up 30.

So, what’s the bottom line? Yes they put on a brave face for Fed day, that’s historically normal. But is there really any solid fundamental reason for the market to move higher? Just this morning we saw Fedex missed their earnings view saying they were cautious. Mortgage applications have fallen. All in all, considering we’re in June which is often a soft month, this two day bounce in the market could once again be “all we get”.

For the past few months, 2 up days is about all we get before we fall back again. Are they going to break that trend and send us up higher for another few days? It’s unlikely. I’ll be surprised if we see them keep us green tomorrow. Oh and don’t forget that every single day they have to fight over Greece is saved/Greece is exiting. That’s always a joy.

Be careful, nothing’s been solved today. Let’s chat on Sunday.

I
















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