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10.16.2016 - Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

What To Do For The Next 28 Days
 
Pull up a chair folks, because you’ve got to do some thinking about things. In less than a month, there’s going to be a new President. Do you know what that means to you personally? Do you know how it will affect you?  I assure you it will, and you don’t have long to prepare.
Let us suppose that on November 8 Hillary becomes the President. How will your life change? Well if you’re one of the millions and millions of honest gun owners, you’re going to see your rights taken away. In recently leaked E-Mails, it is stated quite clearly that Hillary will not only use Executive orders to pass more and more gun rules, she’s going to allow manufacturers to be  liable for any shootings.

In leaked video’s in and around Hillary’s campaign, they talk about pushing for banning semi-automatics. They talk about banning magazine size. They talk about outlawing certain rifles like the AR-15 which happens to be one of the most  popular rifles in the US. Hillary has said publicly that the Supreme court is on the wrong side of the 2nd amendment.

So if it were me and I had been thinking about getting a particular weapon, I would certainly do it in the next few weeks. I’d also  consider buying some of the weapons that are made overseas. If Hillary were to put manufacturer liability on gun manufacturers when ever some animal uses a weapon to shoot someone, or when a law abiding owner protects himself from some animal,  the American manufacturers would have to close. No question.

Oh and for those of you who are sitting there thinking “they’d never get away with that” I respond with a simple retort. Obama care. For the first time in AMERICAN HISTORY you are forced to buy a retail product or you get hounded by the IRS with fines. So it’s no stretch to think that she’d push for gun maker liability.  Just because it hasn’t happened before, that’s only because no one has ever pushed it like she will.

You might still have a second amendment. But they’ll limit how much ammo you can buy. They’ll put taxes on it. They’ve already floated the idea of a 25% gun tax, and a “per bullet” tax.  They’ll outlaw many of the guns you already own.  So again...if you’ve been thinking of a particular weapon, now would be a good time to go get it. I figure you won’t be able to come next year.

While I didn’t intend for this to be a white paper on guns, my suggestion would be this.... Buy up a ton of ammo for what ever guns you already own. If you have a 9 MM, get out there and stock up. If you have anything actually, spend the money now. If you’ve never had a gun but you live in an area where it doesn’t take 30+ days to get approved to own one, by all means get to it. Go to a reputable shop and get yourself something.

For home defense get yourself a shotgun. A 12 gauge pump is perfect, and buy 5 boxes ( or more) of number 4 shot. For carry? There’s a million of them that are great, but I’d look for a Glock 26, and or 19. Even a 42.  The Beretta nano, smith Shield, Ruger LCP and/or LC9 etc.  For a rifle, the age old Ruger 10/22 in .22 is a great rifle. Need something bigger? Ruger American in .308 will certainly reach out and touch someone. If you’ve always wanted an AR, get a good one and do it quick. Your safest bet however is a true hunting rifle, as they will be the last to be banned. A bolt action .240, .270. .308 with a small magazine of say 5, will be legal longest.

What are some other things that will change? Well what about the stock market? If you’ve been watching the market like we do you know that there’s been a hidden hand that has kept it from falling for months. Look at Thursday for example. Early in the day we were down 190 points. The S&P was BELOW its support levels at 2120. But then “it” happened and they jammed it right back up again. By 2 pm we were only down 35 DOW and 5 on the S&P.  Once the election is over, they don’t have to keep it up any longer.

If Trump were to win, the market could fall like a rock. Why? It would be a way to send a message that Trump’s ideas are all wrong, etc. But what if Hillary wins? I think that they’ll no longer go out of their way to hold the market up, and thus... I can easily see it fading and fading in a slow motion melt down. Not a crash, just a prolonged melt down. So you might want to consider your positions.

Next and this is the toughest one to write. I think you might want to stock up on some disaster prep stuff. You all know the drill, food, water, batteries, etc.  Now why do I say that? Because There’s been headlines, many of them that suggest if Hillary wins, we could be looking at war with Russia. Now I’m not being an alarmist here folks. I’m not saying to run out to your bunker and hide. What I’m saying is that we’ve never seen an election this contentious this ugly, this dangerous. Who knows what sort of crazy things could take place?

Over in Russia, they directed 40 million of their people to practice disaster prep. They’ve put out a soft call to bring their foreign students back home. While that in itself doesn’t mean war is imminent, it does show a level of anxiety. Well, think about it like this... it was on Obama’s watch that we placed crippling sanctions on Russia. It was on Clinton’s watch that we helped overthrow Libya, taking the most progressive nation on the African continent and turning it into a sewer. It is on Obama’s watch that we’re in Syria trying to overthrow yet another leader.

This might rub you wrong, but... we don’t have any right to be there. We weren’t invited and we certainly didn’t get any Congressional approval to be in war. Do you think that Putin and his people don’t’ see this stuff? They most certainly do. They also see certain people here in the US blaming them for all manner of things, from hacking the DNC to trying to get Trump elected.

Let me ask you something. After seeing what’s going on in the middle east, and knowing that Hillary was involved in much of it, how would you feel if you were Putin? You’d probably feel pretty disturbed that if Hillary wins, she might set her nation building sights on you. Or you might fear even more crippling sanctions. Or worse...

Because the Media has been fixated 24/7 on this election and destroying Donald Trump, not very many Americans understand just how tense things are in Syria right now. We are closer to nuclear war than we have been since the Cuban Crisis. Yet you’ve not heard word one about it. Maybe they’re ignoring it because “oh that would never happen” or maybe they’re ignoring it because it would expose the very worst of foreign policy mistakes. In either case, I am NOT making this stuff up folks.  Consider this...

Russia’s Defense Ministry has cautioned the US-led coalition of carrying out airstrikes on Syrian army positions, adding in Syria there are numerous S-300 and S-400 air defense systems up and running.
Russia currently has S-400 and S-300 air-defense systems deployed to protect its troops stationed at the Tartus naval supply base and the Khmeimim airbase. The radius of the weapons reach may be “a surprise” to all unidentified flying objects, Russian Defense Ministry spokesperson General Igor Konashenkov said.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, any airstrike or missile hitting targets in territory controlled by the Syrian government would put Russian personnel in danger.
 
But closer to home, the Green party’s own Jill Stein had this to say...

“It is now Hillary Clinton that wants to start an air war with Russia over Syria by calling for a no-fly zone,” Stein said.  “We have 2000 nuclear missiles on hair-trigger alert. They are saying we are closer to a nuclear war than we have ever been. Under Hillary Clinton, we could slide into nuclear war very quickly from her declared policy in Syria.

“I sure won’t sleep well at night if Donald Trump is elected, but I sure won’t sleep well at night if Hillary Clinton elected. We have another choice other than these two candidates who are both promoting lethal policies,” she continued. “On the issue of war and nuclear weapons, it is actually Hillary’s policies which are much scarier than Donald Trump who does not want to go to war with Russia. He wants to seek modes of working together, which is the route that we need to follow not to go into confrontation and nuclear war with Russia.”

Nuclear war is so far removed from people’s heads that it sounds ludicrous to think it. But I say again, we’re closer to it than any time since 1962, deep in the cold war. While Russia has thousands of nuclear shelters for its public, we have....NOTHING. Think about that for a moment. If the worst of the worst ever did happen... YOU have no where to go.

I said over two years ago that the US is desperate for an “event” so big, it can be blamed for our nations ills. War with Russia would certainly fit the bill. So why the suggestion of stocking up on food? Because supply chains around the world would be disrupted. Suppose we had a war with Russia and some how it didn’t go nuclear. When two of the biggest armies and navies and air forces of the world collide, do you think your lovely little chocolates from Europe are still going to make it to the shelf? Do you think the fish and shrimp from Asia’s coming in? Do you think life would go on as normal?

I don’t want anything to happen. But I think the US suffers from normalcy bias. You know..the idea that since nothing bad has happened it won’t.  That can be dangerous.

Let me wrap this up like this. We’re going to get a President soon. The American people have to live with the winner. Every powerful force in the nation wants Hillary. They will probably get her. If you think that all these powerful forces want her because they care about YOU, I tend to think that in a short amount of time you’ll be disappointed. People have blasted me for being a Trump lover. That is not the truth, I’m not a Trump lover. I simply want someone to disrupt the establishment. Put things on pause for a while. Logic some things out.  None of the other 16 the Republicans ran were anti establishment.

So to all those who think I’m a Trump freak, here’s a revelation for you. The guy I wanted to run and win the White house was Allen West.  Unfortunately that didn’t happen.
 
The Market...

For today we’re not going to get into the day to day ups and downs we’ve seen this week. Suffice it to know that it was a choppy mess. What I’m going to talk about is the Money market rules that went into effect Friday and how it “could” affect you.

The SEC's 2a-7 went into effect Friday.  This is a ruling that they dreamed up after the big 2008 meltdown. The idea is this...when the money market gets really nervous, lots of people storm the gates. That gets the managers of the money market funds scrambling for quick high return investments, because they’ve been mandated to keep their NAV at par ( one dollar per share) So when you’ve got all these funds looking for quick high return assets, to fend off too many people just trying to get their money OUT...it creates enormous stresses.

The new rules allow the NAV to “float” which ultimately means that money invested in the fund, could actually lose value. The whole reason people park money in money markets was always the safety aspect. They’d get a slightly higher rate of return than a savings account and the fund had to keep the funds assets stable. That’s no longer the case. Worse, in “times of excess stress” they can HALT redemptions.

Many of the CFO’s have looked over the situation and decided to move away from traditional money markets and put their money in Government backed papers such as agency or Treasuries. Those are NOT subject to the new rules including the redemption halt rules.

So, what’s it mean for you? Well it isn’t great. Most people utilize a money market via a portion of their 401K. With this new rule in place it is EXTREMELY important that the money market funds the 401K manager is utilizing, has tons and tons of liquidity. In other words, Let’s say you’re a fund manager for ABC investments and you run 401K’s for 5,000 companies. In the past, you would utilize money market funds just about anywhere. They were safe, because the MM fund itself had to meet the NAV standards.

Now with a floating NAV, it would be easy for that MM fund to not have enough liquidity to meet their obligations, and they could toss up “redemption gates” to keep people from getting their money for a period of ten days. So YOUR job as the 401K manager now becomes much harder. YOU have to scour the MM Funds you have your client’s money in, to make sure it passes the liquidity smell test.

This is a lot of trust you have to have in the company managing your 401K plan. This is also a backdoor way of getting more people to buy into Treasuries. In another big financial crisis, your money could be held up. But then again... is anything truly safe? I mean really? I wouldn’t be terribly nervous about this, but it is just one more in a long string of reasons why our financial system is creaking and groaning. 

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