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1.14.2018 - Free Investing Newsletter Bookmark

Who's Punking Who?
 
This isn't a topic that can be settled in a single newsletter. So, let's just consider it to be the start of a longer term dialog that we have going forward.
 
So, here's the question. What's up with this Trump guy anyway? I don't ask that to sound snarky, or start arguments. I ask it because people are really polarized in their view of this guy.

 
Some are dead convinced that he's been appointed by God to fix the United States. I don't say that in jest, they truly believe he's on a real mission that's been laid out for him.  Some think he's just another in a long string of elitists, willing to do their bidding,  just like Obama and Hillary and Bush and the Clinton's have done.
 
Some think he really cares about the US, others think he's part of an act. Some think he was placed in power, to take the rap for a horrible market crash that the elite bankers will engineer. Some think his Presidency was an accident. Some think he's doing exactly what he said he was going to do, others think he's lying his butt off.  Some think he's mentally unstable, others think he's "The Don!" 
 
Some think he seriously set out to drain the swamp, but it's going to take a lot of time to dismantle a swamp that's been steeping for decades. Others think he IS the swamp.  As you can imagine, I can go on and on and on with this back and forth view of things.  But like all things, there's got to be a bottom line. What is it? Who is he? Why is he there?
 
The Presidents aren't elected, they're selected. So again, who selected this guy, and what is his real mission? Is he just another stooge for the globalists? Or is there another angle here? I told my friend Ted several years ago that I was "informed" that Trump would be President. At the time, it seemed pretty hard to believe, he hadn't even announced he was interested in running. Yet in 2016, he was indeed "installed" as President.
 
So, it is evident that Trump was selected by "someone" to be President. Yet it didn't/doesn't make sense if it was the globalists. They had their darling Hillary. They had the Clinton Foundation scams, they had the whole DNC spying thing, they had the media, they had "everything".  Hillary would have taken Obama's globalist views, and run with it like nothing we'd ever seen.
 
Why would the globalists pick a guy who mocks their darling media daily? Why would they want anyone , ESPECIALLY a Presidential candidate shining the light on the corrupt media? They wouldn't. Why would they want a guy who fights against their darling "refugee's?"  They wouldn't.
 
I've had people write me and tell me it's just showmanship, just another puppet, but with a different stage act. I don't buy that one. Sorry. I could surely be wrong, but there's a lot more here than meets the eye.
 
The one single thing that tells me that something radically different is happening here is the whole Russian investigation-turned embarrassment to the former administration. I was really interested in why, when Trump was running, he took every opportunity he could to tell everyone how buddy-buddy he'd be with Vlad Putin. He went out of his way, time and time again to say we could be "good friends" and work together, and enjoy success together. That brought howls and screaming from the left.
 
They said he was a Russian agent. They said he was a traitor. They said he's working for Putin. Every single member, from Obama, to Hillary to their cabinet members all made it to the media every day to pound home how treasonous Donald Trump was. And then "it" happened. The whole Uranium One  scandal, complete with bribes, dirty money, and collusion was unearthed.
 
Suddenly all the people screaming that working with the Russians about anything is akin to being Satan, had egg on their faces. Rotten, stinking egg. So let me ask you all, do you think that was all an accident? Hell no. Trump was well schooled about the Uranium One deal, and he trolled all those big name politicians and State department people right into the trap. The more he talked about liking Putin the more they wanted him removed from running for President. And then "like magic" the tables turned. It was THEM that worked with Putin. It was THEM that got Bill Clinton a 500K dollar payday for a two hour talk. Money clearly paid to cement the Uranium deal.
 
Most people didn't get the significance of what I just outlined. Trump knew all about Uranium one, and wanted to expose the people that worked that deal, and he did it splendidly. Again, that's pretty high level chess.
 
So, who was it that "selected" Trump? It certainly wasn't your normal  run of the mill globalists that instructed him on how to expose that mess. It wasn't run of the mill globalists that told trump to keep hounding them about the pallets full of cash that was sent to Iran. It isn't main stream globalists telling him to mock, call out and humiliate their darling press at every chance he gets.
 
No, this guy was put there for a reason. Many in the Alt community think he really is there to take a last chance shot at saving the US from becoming the socialist, UN controlled globalist puppet that they wet dream about. Could it possibly be? Could enough honest, US loving "white hats" in the military and defense agencies have colluded to put in a guy with the operation being to try and save us from globalist take over?
 
Look at the stock market. New record highs almost daily for OVER a year. I'm being told that I'm supposed to believe that they're cranking it up like that, so they can pull the rug and create a huge crash on his watch. Okay why wait? Wouldn't it have been easier for them to crush the market from the day he was elected, pounding it daily and blaming it all on him? Instead I'm supposed to believe that they're going to let it run like this, fatten up all those 401K's and then over a year later, yank the rug and blame him?
 
Wouldn't it have been much easier to get the public on board with their Russian Collusion baloney, if the stock market was puking day after day? Wouldn't the masses take up their pitchforks and demand "something be done about this Trump guy ruining their 401K's?"  You bet it would.

And what about these corporations giving bonuses and wage increases to the employees??  If they truly hate Trump as most of them said they do, why on earth would they reward employees, most of which work paycheck to paycheck, with money that comes from a Trump agenda? Why would they possibly do that if they were "so against this guy?"  Wouldn't the average Joe Schmoe getting a 1K dollar bonus and a raise be more likely to "love this Trump guy!"??  I think so. 
 
Remember Isis? Oh yeah, them. That US inspired, US armed band of mutants running amok in the Middle East? When asked about Isis late in his term, this is what Obama had to say:
 
"It will take time to eradicate a cancer like (ISIS). It will take time to root them out."
"This is a long-term and extremely complex challenge."
"This will not be quick."
"There will be setbacks and there will be successes."
"We must be patient and flexible in our efforts; this is a multiyear fight and there will be challenges along the way."
 
Trump came in, gave his Generals 30 days to put a plan to take them down on his desk and by September, it was "over". All the captured towns were eradicated, and Isis is now little bands of terrorists hiding in caves.
 
Obama was the Poster child for the elitist globalists. Our war against Isis was taking years. Yet Trump put an end to that madness in 10 months. Am I to believe the globalists were all in with that? Well, I don't.
 
I'll be the first to say that I don't have this guy completely figured out. There's things he's done that rub me wrong, no doubt. But in the "big picture" He's done a lot of things that are making the Globalists, the Hollyweirds, the media scum, and most left wingers go crazy. That right there is a victory in itself.  Can he fix our debts? Nope, no one can. Can he fix the derivative bomb? Nope. But with his history of bankruptcies, could he also have been selected to head up a restructuring of US debt?  Could be.
 
Let me end with this. There has NEVER been anything like we're witness to right now. Not in the stock market, not in the derision in the FBI, not in the turmoil surrounding the White house, not in the rabidity of the left and the media, not in a lot of things.  Something big is happening folks, and no, I don't have it all sorted out.  But I do have a popcorn maker and beer. I think I'll need  lot of both before the next 3 years are up!
 
The Market:
 
"Are You not entertained?" was a classic line from the movie Gladiator, released in 2000.   I think it's an apt question for this past week. Are you not entertained? We've had the fastest market rise in history over this new year start.  Thursday  they tacked on another 205 points, only to follow it up with another couple hundred on Friday.  Wow is a word that comes to mind.
 
On one hand, I shake my head and wonder "what the heck?" yet on the other, we just cashed in some January Call options that rewarded us big time. We had some options we bought at 10.91 that we sold for 32. Some that we bought for 5.65 that we sold at 17.  So I can complain about the insanity of the run up, but I like the profits it generates.
 
I don't care how much tax cuts will save companies money and make them "more profitable", the fact is that this market IS expensive. It's also a bit more narrow than most would think. While we see the index up 200 points, if you look inside, the components aren't "all" up. Some are up sharply, but some are just hugging the flat line.  Consider AMZN, it was up 29 bucks. But XOM was barely clinging to a 40 cent gain.
 
One would think that even in the face of this insane melt up, there has to be some sort of pause day, or even a couple red days. But they don't seem to appear. One day it "has to" but when?  That's a pretty good question.
 
Last week 24 billion dollars went into equity and EFT funds. That's the 6th most one week surge in history. Everyone wants in. Emerging market debt saw the second biggest surge of money ever. 
 
So, this market is becoming quite problematic. If the insanity wants to continue, we want to be in it. But how long do you want to get when you've had 9 years of "up" and we're still hitting records every single day. Am I to think this lasts for ever?  Sorry, they preached that stuff in 1998 - 2000 too. Everyone thought the market could never stop going up. They learned a serious lesson.
 
It was late in the run up, maybe 1999. I met up with a very nice guy that was literally giving up a nice career to trade stocks. I said to him, be very very careful about your decision, it's not always "this easy".  He replied that he was doing so well, other people were giving him money to trade, and he was on top of the world.
 
I asked him "do you think this is normal? I assure you it isn't."  But he didn't want to hear it. He was buying stocks, they were going up and who was I to suggest that the market might go into bear mode and get "hard" to trade?  Well you all know what happened. The market topped in early 2000 and took 70% off the NASDAQ.
 
This time is different for sure. It's different because this time it's not just the retail folks and the fund managers doing this it's the Central bankers. So "technically" they could just keep printing new money and injecting it into stocks "for ever", or until Hyper inflation hits. 
 
I'm not sure what their ultimate goal is here. Maybe it is to suck in every last person that was holding out, and then they crash the system, so they can usher in their new "global" reserve currency.  As crazy as it sounds, it is entirely possible.
 
In any event, we've been through bubbles before, and we'll play with this one too. As we enter into earnings season here, one might consider the idea that buying the ETF's might be a considerably safer way to play here, than buying individual stocks. Also, consider using options.  Speaking of, I'm going to write about simple options later in the week.  Have a great weekend folks!

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