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Hello everyone, and welcome to your Labor Day weekend. Remember that the markets are indeed closed on Monday.
In today's letter, I express a personal struggle that I just went through with my Mom. At 89, she's not quite the spry old gal she once was, and after a short hospital stay, she's needing some time in a rehab. But the five days between the hospital and going to rehab really opened my eyes to a lot. I was simply not prepared.
so I talk about that, and then in the market commentary, we consider the idea that maybe September will bring us something of a fade. While it's October that produces the big crashes, September is generally the worst month of the year. So, we'll chat about that.
Please give it a read, especially if you're going to be tending to elderly care. Don't make my mistakes.
Hi Folks, I sure hope you're enjoying the start of your 3 day Holiday weekend. You people up along the East coast, take care from Tropical Storm Hermine, as I could see some wicked coastal flooding in your areas.
I posted Sunday's letter today (Saturday) and in it we dispel some untruths about such things as inflation and deflation, and of course we whine about how the market is completely disconnected from the true state of the economy. Our view is that the next 100 days or so are going to be quite interesting to say the least. From the new FBI Files on Hillary, to the pressures mounting between the US and China....there's hot spots all over. Take a few minutes and read this weeks edition of the Financial Intelligence Report. It is our completely free investing newsletter, one that's been published now for 20 years.
On Friday we got the non farm payroll report, and boy…if the powers that be ever wanted to paint something to look perfect, this was their Rembrandt moment. Not only did the headline number beat the estimates of a gain of 235K by coming in at 257K; they went back and did some of the most aggressive “revisions” to prior reports that I’ve ever seen.
Let me paint the picture for you. According to our Government bean counters the last few reports have shown the most job gains in 17 years. They say that wage growth was the best since 2008, as they told us wages grew by 0.5%. The BLS did revisions to the entire year of 2014, and remember the “polar vortex” last January? They said at the time we only got 144K jobs. Now they say that looking back, it was really 247K. But that was nothing compared to what they did to November. Now they say November posted a gain of 465K jobs. That’s the most monthly gains since the tech bubble boom of the late 90’s. A time when there really were jobs galore.
This morning's drop out which took us from + 60 to -70 was pretty
rude to say the least. But maybe worse, the "headfakes" both up and
down have been particularly annoying today. Lately, they've been
putting in morning lows, and then when Europe closes
If there was ever a time when we needed to step back, take a breath and think about the things that matter most…this is it. Each day I approach the computer with a bit of apprehension…is this the day I flip on a monitor and see a mushroom cloud somewhere?
That’s the kind of trepidation that should NOT be part of life in 2017. For all our advancements, for all our technological superiority, we humans still tend to be savages at heart. Wars, killings, beheadings, rapes, murders, etc. One may have thought we’d outgrown all that. But no…it’s front and center every day in every paper USA.