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10.27.2018 - Free Investing Newsletter Bookmark

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Many of you know that I’m a Silent Partner in a company that trains people in using weapons for defense. We offer the Florida concealed carry classes, right up and through individual training classes based on your needs.

If someone wants an introduction to handguns or rifles, we do that. If someone wants to learn defensive shooting, run and gun, home protection, etc, we do that. Maybe you just want to learn to be more accurate, or how to avoid flinching. We do that. Maybe you’d like a class on “intro to gun fighting.” Yep we do that. We can train anyone from the absolute beginner, to the SWAT member.

Several years ago, the owner Mike, agreed to block off a couple months worth of Sunday’s and I invited my readers to come down to Sarasota and have a full day of one on one training with Mike at our private range. Well it was amazing, we had people come in from Washington, Louisiana, Texas, etc, even one gent that flew in from Italy. They were full day classes, from 9 am to 5 pm, and covered anything the student wanted to learn.
Anyway, our owner/head trainer Mike has an internet show called Front Site Press, that airs on Facebook at 8 pm on Thursday nights. I’m going to be on the show with him Next Thursday, (Nov, 1) talking about various issues.

I invite you all to share this with your family and friends, and watch the show. Seriously, call them up and tell them to watch this nut Bob, and his buddy Mike on November 1, on Facebook. There’s going to be some good info there, from home defense, to women with weapons, to you name it.
By the way, most of the folks that watch and enjoy the show are folks that I know, or Mike knows, or that have come through our classes, or are just friends. So there’s a lot of cajoling and having fun on the set. This is the internet, not broadcast TV, so we’re not very politically correct, and yes you might hear the occasional bad word. But we’re going to tone it down some and talk about some serious “gun stuff.”

While I’m not bringing a script or anything like that, I suppose that we’ll cover some things such as why shotguns make sense for home defense, or how to help correct shooting “low and left”, which afflicts many. Maybe we’ll talk about Bienville, the 4 star, 15000 acre hunting and fishing preserve that we give lessons at every few months. I’m not quite sure how the evening will go.
So why the push for all of you to tune in? Why am I asking you to get your friends and family involved? Well it certainly isn’t because I want you to see my ugly mug. No, the reason I want you all to tune in, is because times are getting crazier. People are being physically attacked and harassed by lunatics. We’re in a civil war.
I don’t say that lightly folks. Do a search online and it’s not just the Antifa idiots, it’s lunatic leftists harassing people in restaurants and “punching” republicans. Civility is out the window, and it looks to be getting worse. When you have politicians telling their followers to harass people “where they work, where they eat”, etc, it isn’t long before the more mentally weak among them snap, and physically assault people.
We knew that if Hillary got elected our gun rights were going out the window. Even though Trump is gun friendly, the left is running mid term campaigns on the very idea of “banning” weapons. The right to own and carry a defensive weapon is still being attacked daily.
Protecting yourself, your family and your home is a right we can never let pass. Knowing HOW to do those things, is something everyone should learn. So please, tune in Thursday night at 8 pm on Facebook to “front site press” and I’ll try and pick some topics everyone would benefit from. www.Facebook.com/frontsightpress

The Market:

Is this “it” or not? Yes it is. Sort of. Kinda. Let’s chat.
No matter how stupid I’ve looked over the past couple years suggesting that one day this is all going to end, it was a fact. It seemed silly to even suggest such a thing, as no matter what the obstacle, the market simply went higher. But I had one ace up my sleeve. In 5,000 years of recorded history, no market of any kind has simply gone up for ever. This one won’t break the mold.
It hasn’t been a good week for the bulls. We’ve peeled off 550 DOW points and about 100 S&P’s. When their darling stocks, AMZN and GOOG were tossed into the fire, you sort of knew that things are indeed changing.
So, in the big picture, yes. I think what we’re seeing is the beginning of the end to the longest bull run in US history. “They” whomever you wish to call them (banking elites comes to mind) have the ability to push markets up, and to pull them down. Yes folks, no matter how much your economics 101 class told you that stocks go up because of earnings, and supply and demand, and the rest of the voodoo, the truth is that stocks go up or down based on how much funny money and interest rates the bankers create.
After the 2008 crash, ( which by the way was inevitable and predictable) the globalist bankers pushed umpteen trillion dollars into the global system. They then cut rates to zero, and to this day there’s still “negative’ interest rates in play in various places. 

When you combine trillions in Dollars, Euro’s, Yen’s, and what have you, with zero cost to borrow, you drive markets higher. They did just that.
Now however, they’ve reversed course. They’ve been raising interest rates AND slowly removing dollars from the global stage. With a nod toward “Investing for Dummies,” if cutting rates and printing dollars pushed the markets up, wouldn’t raising rates and removing dollars push it down? Yes Watson, it would.
The question is always about timing. What was it on October third, when the market hit another all time high, that suddenly rising rates and Quantitative Tightening mattered? Why that day? Why not the 1st, or the 11th? Or September 22nd? Who knows. But they programmed their algo-bots to start using the economic data as excuses to sell, instead of buy.
So now we’ve peeled off 2300 points from the highs, and we did it very quickly. Just 17 trading sessions. Because of the rapidity of the descent, all the charts are broken. Every indicator is flashing oversold. There’s no trend intra day, as 300+ point reversals are common.
I absolutely think that Oct 3 was the all time high of this run. I don’t believe it gets exceeded. The ONLY way I can see that happening is what I’d consider to be a “blow off top” and it would have to come on the heels of several things coming together.
I mentioned this last week, but I think it bears repeat. Just like lower rates and printing dollars pushed the market higher, we also know that it rose while the Republicans held both houses. So the algo-bots are fine with that. Likewise we rose in the face of the first rounds of China tariffs. It dealt with that too.
Well, in September, the US placed a 10% tariff on 200 billion worth of Chinese imports. In January that goes to 25%. So, here’s my thinking.
IF the Republicans keep both houses, the Algo-bots and the big money will not have to fret over gridlock, or the recision of Trump’s initiatives. Then, IF the US and China come to an agreement on Tariffs, and the 25% doesn’t take affect, I could then see one last gigantic push higher. I’m talking about maybe 15% from here. But even if we got that, I’d consider it the top.
However, if the houses get split, and there’s no China deal and the tariffs kick in, I have absolutely no reason to think we’ll ever see the highs again. We’re long in the tooth, rates are up, dollars are getting sucked up by the Feds, earnings probably peaked, and a slowdown is in the cards.
So while I expect bounces and counter rallies, barring a deal with China, and keeping both houses, I suspect we’re going sideways and down over the long term.

That’s how I see it folks. One last hurrah pop over good tariff news/keeping the houses, or a sideways grind lower for a long time. Either way, I expect the market to be lower a year from now.

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