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5.11.2019 - Free Newsletter Bookmark


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They Will Never Get It
I know I’m probably supposed to be writing about the big bugaboo which is the China trade situation, but I’m not going to. Everyone and their brother is focused on that, and frankly 99% of them are missing the point.
Notice how these big trade imbalances weren’t that terribly important to us in years gone by? That’s because they were taking the excess dollars they got from those trade account balances and buying up US Treasuries. Everyone was fine with that situation, and the trade gap was “not concerning.”

Now however, China isn’t buying US Treasuries like they used to. They’re using those dollars to fund their silk road expansion, create global influences, corner important commodities, invest in Africa and worldwide ports, and oh yeah, build up their military. All of a sudden, the “trade gap” is all the rage, but for the wrong reasons. The tariffs are making up for the lack of Treasury buying. Oh, but they won’t tell you that.
So we can talk about all that in the future. Today I want to harp on something that seems so incredibly basic to me, supported by ABSOLUTE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE, and yet will never be accepted. I’m talking about arming school teachers.
Down here in Florida, the State Government has just this week given the green light to allow teachers to carry concealed weapons. Naturally that brought out the army of snowflakes whining and complaining that “we don’t want our teachers armed.” So, each county has the ability to “not allow” their school systems to allow armed teachers.

To be fair to the snowflakes, I wanted to put up one of their arguments for being against allowing teachers to 1) carry a gun 2) get mandatory training, and 3) be a first line of defense. The following was an opinion by one Peter Kelly:

I hesitated about writing on the topic of whether we should arm our teachers because I did not want to address such an upsetting subject. Then I realized the answer for me is simple. No.
I have three children - two currently in San Diego Unified schools and one who graduated from a district high school last year. I believe teachers should be educators. They are role models for our children. It sends the wrong message to arm our teachers. Teachers should teach that peace is what the world needs. Education means being able to teach our children to talk in detail about hard topics - such as religious or political viewpoints - without violence.
Teaching is not easy. Unfortunately, it is a stressful and usually low-paying job. It is hard enough without giving the life-and-death responsibility of carrying a loaded firearm to work every day.
We are not talking about ex-military personnel who are now security guards or off-duty police officers. We are talking about teachers. Most are civilians who have no formal training with firearms. Having a loaded firearm is dangerous. Accidents happen.
The mere presence of the firearm dramatically increases the risk of gun injury. It also advertises where a gun is located. Is the teacher carrying it? Maybe a child with bad intentions steals it. Maybe a depressed student wants to find the gun to harm him or herself. What if a teacher shot a child by mistake? There are far too many scenarios that result in accidental death rather than self-defense with a firearm.
I grew up in the South. I went duck hunting with a shotgun when I was 15 years old. I shot skeet for my physical education classes in college. I am not a stranger to firearms. I believe if you are an avid hunter or games person, you should be able to possess a shotgun or hunting rifle. I believe that better background checks and history of mental illness should be brought into the purchase of a firearm. Buying guns for hunting should be legal after a solid background check.
But not at schools. Guns don’t belong in classrooms. Usually adults raised around firearms for hunting are extremely serious about gun safety. And let’s be honest, handguns are for killing people. That is the only design. The very weapon that causes carnage at schools should not be brought into classrooms.
I’d love to say “Okay Pete, I see your logic and I agree,” but of course, I cannot. Why? Because the FACTS get in the way. Now, here’s where I’d love to have a one on one dialog with Pete and anyone that thinks his way. See, on April 19th, the Crime Prevention Research Center, under one John Lott Jr. finished up an exhaustive study concerning school shootings, and the differences between schools that allow concealed carry and those that don’t. They published the findings.
I am only going to post the introduction and the conclusion. Why? This thing is 37 pages long, has a ton of charts and graphs, it’s loaded with data concerning dates, percentages, types of shootings, etc. For me it’s great reading, because it confirms something that makes 100% logical sense. When a lunatic knows that some of the people in that school have weapons and can shoot back, they decide on easier hunting grounds. The facts tell us it’s true.
Guess what the conclusion was? Let me post it for you:
After the Columbine school shooting 20 years ago, one of the more significant changes in how we protect students has been the advance of legislation that allows teachers to carry guns at schools. There are two obvious questions: Does lettingteachers carrycreate dangers? Might they deter attackers? Twenty states currently allow teachers and staff to carry guns to varying degrees on school property, so we don’t need to guess how the policy would work.

There has yet to be a single case of someone being wounded or killed from a shooting, let alone a mass public shooting, between 6 AM and midnight at a school that lets teachers carry guns. Fears of teachers carrying guns in terms of such problems as students obtaining teachers guns have not occurred at all, and there was only one accidental discharge outside of school hours with no one was really harmed. While there have not been any problems at schools with armed teachers, the number of people killed at other schools has increased significantly -doubling between 2001 and 2008 versus 2009 and 2018.
Often gun control debates involve things that might go wrong if people are allowed to have guns. But we don’t need to guess. Schools that have allowed teachers to carry guns have been remarkably safe. There has yet to be a single case of someone being wounded or killed from a shooting, let alone a mass public shooting, at a school that lets teachers carry guns. Fears of teachers carrying guns in terms of such problems as students obtaining teachers guns have not occurred at all, and there was only one accidental discharge outside of school hours, with no harm. The average rate of death or injury from shooting is 0.039 per 100,000 students across all schools (so the rate is higher among schools that don’t allow teachers to carry), while it is 0 per 100,000 in schools with armed teachers. While there have not been any problems at schools with armed teachers, the number of people killed at other schools has increased significantly -doubling from 2001 and 2008to 2009 and 2018.
I’m going to post a link where you can see the entire report, and frankly YOU SHOULD. You should take it to your school administrators and push them to allow your kids teachers to bee armed IF THEY WANT.

Go there and then hit the button to open PDF in a browser. The entire report is there.
Look folks, I’m not suggesting little Miss Naughton the frail 98 pound lady that happens to teach 3rd grade should be armed, especially if she didn’t want to. But in a normal Jr. high or high school, I’m sure you could find 10 - 15 teachers that would be interested in the training and the ability to defend themselves and the kids from lunatics. You don’t need many. You simply need MANY SIGNS around that school that says “ Some teachers in this School are armed and have been taught proper weapons use.”
Shooters don’t much like the idea of people shooting back at them. The only way someone’s coming into a school to shoot it up, if the school has armed teachers, is if that lunatic wanted to commit suicide and “hoped” an armed teacher took him out.
It’s similar to “suicide by cop.” If you’re not familiar with that, there are people that are suicidal, but instead of just taking their own life, they act in a manner that almost guarantees that law enforcement will shoot them. Such as pointing a gun at the kids or police, etc. They know they’ll get shot, it’s what they want.
So yes a lunatic that wanted suicide, could come into a school and just do enough to have someone shoot him, I could see that. But I’d still rather have those 10 - 15 trained teachers around, to make sure that he’s the only one getting killed that day.
I just wish more people could see the logic behind this study, instead of leaning on “emotions” and feelings. Guns scare a lot of people today, because unlike the previous generations, they weren’t brought up with them. I get that. But just because you’re frightened of something you don’t truly understand, wouldn’t it be better to go learn?
Very very rare is the person that says they’re afraid of guns or hates them, that comes to our classes, and doesn’t change their minds. In one evening. It’s actually amazing to see. Many is the young lady that comes in that’s so terrified of guns, we have to take 15 minutes just to prove it won’t jump up and harm her. But then 2 hours later, we’ve got her on the range and she’s nervous but doing it. Then, after a few magazines, we usually hear “Hey that wasn’t so bad! It might have actually been fun, sorta!” Yeah. We know.
The lunatics will not be going away. The only good defense is equal opportunity, meaning he has a gun, you have a gun. It’s truly that simple. And if I’m in charge of 25 -30 youngsters, I’d feel helpless as a garden slug in an “no gun zone” school.
Read the report. Print it out. Show it to people, take it to your schools. It’s that important.
The Market:
Flip your coin. Do we go up in May, on the heels of renewed stock buy backs that will total in the umpteen billions, or, does the old “sell in May and go away” come into play?
Great question. On Friday, we got no China deal. The first half of the day saw the market fading and fading. The DOW got down to its 200 day moving average, which was about 360 points red, and like magic, it started to climb. Faster and faster it went, going from down 360+ to green. When the day was over, we GAINED 114 DOW points. The S&P shrugged off a 30 point plunge and ended the day +11.
Bravado? Algo’s reacting to Mnuchins remarks about how the talks were “constructive?” Plunge patrol to the rescue? Dead cat bounce? Technical bounce off the 200 day? All the above? Take your pick.
I don’t know how many times I can say that the market doesn’t belong up here, because it doesn’t matter how much you say it, the market is indeed “up here.” One might have thought that the process of hiking tariffs from 10 to 25%, and then adding in another 300 billion of products to get tariff’d, would cause the market to truly roll over. But hey, that might be logical.
Instead, they seem to think that “hey, one day there will be a deal, and in the meantime, companies can employ some world class buy back action.” Crazy? Sure. But then this market has been nuts for some time.
I think we’re going to get something of a bounce for a few days. But I don’t know that it has staying power. So much of the globe is weakening, and day after day the fundamentals erode a bit more.
I could see us entering a pattern of lower highs and lower lows from here. For instance, just a couple weeks ago the DOW was at 26,600. Then it walked itself down to Friday’s low at 25,469. So, I could see it maybe bouncing to the 26,300 area and then rolling over and down to say the 25,300 level.
Then another bounce, but it doesn’t make it past 26,00 and it rolls over again. Lower and lower , but in stair step. That sort of “controlled” demolition would probably be more acceptable than an outright 25% plunge.
It’s still crazy times folks, hang in there and don’t overshoot long or short. Volatility will come back in fashion. Play safe.

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