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8.31.2019 -Financial Intelligence Report
on August 31, 2019 in
NOTE>> Everyone that has expressed interest in the pre IPO company that has introduced the first novel anti-biotic in 35 years; should have already gotten an information package and the phone number for the conference call they’re holding on Wed. Sept 4th at 8pm eastern.
I wasn’t about to put the phone number in my letter where X thousands of people with no true intent of being an investor, blows up their phone system. However if you are truly interested in hearing about the company, and how well their lead drug did in phase I testing, then just send me an email at
and put IPO in the subject. I’ll forward that to Mr. Luci, and he will reach out to you.
I’m looking forward to the call myself, as they put out a press release last week, which had a lot of really encouraging information in it. I want to hear of the latest developments just like you.
People have been sending prayers for my wife, and because prayer works, we just learned Thursday that she does NOT have the “cancer” gene. That is wonderful news and I thank each and every one of you who’ve said a supportive word or prayer for her.
On Wed, Thurs, and even half of Friday, we here in Florida were knee deep in hurricane prep. The media had everyone whipped up into a frenzy, as this massive, high power storm was going to run into us with winds of 125 miles per hour.
Even over here on the opposite side of the state, gas stations had lines, all the supermarkets were out of water. The bread aisle’s were barren, the “canned goods” such as tuna, canned chicken, “Chef Boyardee”, soups, etc, were gone.
It was understandable. Until those first models started showing Dorian inching eastward, we very well were in the crosshairs of this monster, and I know what they can do. Don’t forget, I was in NJ for Sandy, the storm that ate my house, and the houses of 17 of my neighbors. Oh and by ate, I mean, “took away”. Nothing left but poles in the ground. I was here in FL for Irma, a storm that many are still hurting from. I know what these can do.
I had a chuckle on Friday evening when I called our local Harbor freight. Somehow I lost my tool for compressing brake calipers, and have been using a C-clamp to do it. I simply wanted to know if HF had one in stock before heading there. The gal that answered the phone, had me chuckle.
Hello, thanks for calling Harbor Freight where we have NO generators and NO gas cans, so, how can I help you?
” I can’t imagine how many phone calls she got looking for those items.
But by the Friday, 11am hurricane center update, we started noticing a definite shift of the spaghetti models further to the east. For the first time in a week, we were breathing just a bit easier. Then the 5 pm report looked even better, and the Saturday 5 am/8am and 11am runs saw the spaghetti move so far east, that only a few were suggesting any land fall in FL at all.
So, let’s get back to prayer for a minute. It was just 2 years ago, almost to the day that Hurricane Irma, another monster, landed in Florida. So many people’s lives have been blown up by these storms that I think that collectively more and more people are praying “together” for God to steer them away.
Think about it for a minute. Before the advent of modern weather forecasting and such things as mass communications, Internet, etc, very few people knew what might be brewing 1000 miles away. Do you ever wonder why so many Spanish shipwrecks litter the Florida coast? They had no idea of the monster storms that were just days away. They’d load up their ships with gold and silver and shove off, not aware that a Cat 4 hurricane would be on them just 30 hours later.
Consider this, the single biggest nastiest storm of ALL TIME landed on the Florida Keys on Labor day in 1935. The Labor Day Hurricane was the most intense storm ever known to make landfall in the Western Hemisphere, having the lowest sea level pressure ever recorded in the United States-a central pressure of 892 mbar (26.35 inHg)-suggesting an intensity of between 162 and 164 knots (186 and 189 mph) 408 people died from that storm,
most of them unaware that it was even coming.
Now we get news instantly from the pulses coming off the African coast, with a minute by minute playbook of where they are, their size, their strength and most importantly, where they “might” be headed. As so many people with so much knowledge of where the hurricane might hit, is it possible that the collective prayers of several millions of people, might just nudge it back to sea?
I’m really not kidding when I ask this question. God hears prayers. Nature has a “harmony” so to speak. The collective consciousness of millions of people all pushing for the same result, probably has effects that we can’t measure.
As I’m writing this at 2 pm Saturday, virtually every spaghetti string but one, has it staying off the Coast of Florida. That is indeed tremendous news, but it brings up a bit of a moral question. If the power of prayer by millions of Floridians helped “steer” this away, what about those poor folks in the Carolina’s that might then be in the crosshairs?
Well again, maybe we just need more time and more prayers. Right now 9 out of 17 models have it arching so much to the east that it makes NO LANDFALL anywhere. That’s what I’m praying for, no one should have to deal with this thing.
We’re not out of the woods yet, and virtually anything can happen, but for right now I’m breathing a lot easier, as are my friends on the East Coast. Keep the prayers going folks, it certainly can’t hurt.
The month of August has been a textbook case of “Chop” Take a look at the S&P here:
It didn’t matter if you went long or short, you were going to get burned. The only way to play this mess was to be out by the close, because you never knew what the next day would bring.
We ended the week with a 3 day flurry higher. Part of that was because it was China’s turn to extend an olive branch and they said they wanted to hold off on retaliatory tariffs and get back on track with “meaningful” dialog with the US. The algo’s took that as a sign of hope, and “up we went.”
However, Friday the market was up considerably higher in the am than where we closed. I had told my insider members that morning that it was possible the market might fade into the close some, as we had a 3 day weekend looming and “who knows” what might happen in Hong kong, or what have you.
As you can see by the chart, we’re still “trapped” between the 200 day moving average and the 50 day moving average. Until one of those gives up, we can expect more chop.
Now we have to add more ingredients to the cake. This is September now. Guess what we get in September? We get another FOMC meeting. Are the Feds going to cut rates? That’s a good question folks.
The market expects a cut, even if it’s just 25 basis points. If they get that, they might grumble a bit, but overall the market will hold up. But, if the Feds play tough and don’t cut, I suspect the market will projectile vomit all over the place.
Taken to an extreme, if the Fed cuts rates AND we get some form of real news about a trade deal, this market will launch itself into space. Consider this: Since 1933, any time the S&P has been up 10% between January and August, it goes higher 83% of the time. So history suggests we work higher from here “anyway” but add in rate cuts and a trade deal and we’ll be flying.
Flip side of course is that China says, “up yours” and the fed’s don’t cut rates. We will see December’s 2350 levels.
In the here and now, our next obstacle is indeed the 50 day moving average on the S&P That might serve as resistance for a while, and it’s only 20 points away. So we might have already topped out for a bit and they’re going to have to regroup.
Crazy times folks, play cautiously!
3.8.2017 -Financial Intelligence Report
I write 99% of the articles that appear in your in-box. But occasionally there comes an article that’s so well written and/or expresses the same information that I wanted to impart, that it sometimes just makes sense to post the author’s work.
Today I’m faced with a bit of a problem. There are actually
two articles that I’ve read recently, that quite nicely go over the topics that I’ve been discussing lately.
If you’ve paid attention, I continue to mention that there’s “Warfare” going on at the very upper levels of Washington DC. I have mentioned many times that there’s warfare going on in the intelligence agencies. There’s the classic spy vs spy situation going on, but it’s not “out spies versus some other nefarious nation’s spy’s, it’s our spies against our own spy’s. Wow.
4.27.2016 -Financial Intelligence Report
Can You Beat City Hall?
While there’s a million things I’d like to write about, I keep trying to hammer one point over and over, because it is indeed “that important”. What is that point? If you truly see what they’ve been doing, you’d have to admit to yourself that we’ve entered the twilight zone matrix-like market.
Because I pump out 2 letters a week for over 20 years, it becomes hard to follow the plot sometimes. Hey, I get it. We talk about a lot of things in these letters. But there are “big themes” that don’t change week to week and it is the big theme that I’m talking about right now.
2.12.2017 -Financial Intelligence Report
Get This Today! Really.
Okay folks. I mentioned on Wednesday that for only the second time ever I might offer up a lifetime subscription again, for just 600 bucks. Well, I got just the right amount of feedback. I AM going to do this.
5.15.2016 -Financial Intelligence Report
Your Next Half a Million
There are times when the stars line up. But they’re rare times. I’ve been personally investing for about 25 years now, and writing these letters for 20. In all those years, there’s only been a handful of times when things looked just right for a big take.
In May of 1996, AOL the leading Internet company of the day, was getting pounded. It had fallen from 70 a share in 94, to just 25 bucks. I looked through the data and decided that AOL was horribly underpriced and told the readers of my first Newsletter ( which was called “News Picks” at the time), that I was going “All in” on AOL. By early 1998, it was 100.00 a share. Then it split, giving us twice the number of shares. Then it simply ran higher and higher again. Amazingly, it was running so high so fast, they did ANOTHER 2 for 1 split in the same year! By the time we had sold it in 1999, We were up an incredible 1300+%. It was the single biggest trade of my life until then.
10.12.2014 Financial Intelligence Report
Earnings Upon Us…
Four times a year, most companies produce their economic report for the previous quarter of business. This isn’t something new, they’ve been doing it since the idea of a structured company first began. But like most things, they’ve “morphed” into something much different than the standards set so many years ago. I’m not shy in saying that a very competent accountant overseeing companies in 1920 would have absolutely no clue how to figure out what the hell any modern company was even talking about.
So when these companies start releasing their earnings in bulk next week, just what are we actually hearing them tell us? Sometimes it isn’t as easy as just saying “oh that’s their earnings based on sales versus expenses”. Thus I think a bit of history lesson needs to be taught here….
5.8.2016 - Financial Intelligence Report
Who is Kidding Who?
On Friday we got the non farm payroll report. On the first Friday of every month we get a reading concerning the prior months job hiring’s. They discuss the breakdown of where the jobs came from, the sectors, the pay changes, etc. It really is a deep report.
Well, this month the spinner head economists were all on board for the economy to have created 205 – 220,000 jobs. Well, at 8:30 am, we got the results and it was a “swing and a miss”. According to OFFICIAL Government bean counters, we got 160,000 jobs. So right off the bat, the “experts” missed the estimates by about 24%. In any other profession other than weather forecasting, they’d be fired.
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