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10.2.2019 - Free Investment Newsletter Bookmark

Never Learn

 

As you all may or may not know, I haven’t been “in the economic saddle” much lately because of my wife’s Surgery and follow ups. It’s been a rough couple weeks and I’ve had to spend a lot of time helping her. Things will get “right” again, it’s just a matter of time.

 

In fact, great strides were made just today, as her “drains” were removed and for the first time in a week, she can take a full shower instead of a sponge bath. For the past week, I’ve been the “drain maintenance” guy, the sponge bath guy, and the “make a poncho out of a garbage bag” guy so she could wash her hair in the sink. So, today was a stunning success! 

 

 

But I did want to make a quick mention of something that really drove me nuts over the past week, and that’s the “using” of that little Swedish kid, to push the Elite’s global warming agenda. What a disgusting thing to do.

 

It didn’t get much air play, but a 15 year old child committed suicide, and blamed it on the hopelessness of our battle against climate change, and the message Greta Thunburg was spreading. There’s always casualties.

 

People are holding this child up as some form of hero. Some form of “next world leader.” No, she’s not. She’s been provoked into doing all this grandstanding by people with very big agendas. Oh yeah, she’s famous now. But maybe not for the right reasons.

 

I was going to write about how in the 70’s, we were being warned daily about not only freezing to death, we’d be starving to death because of the coming ice age. Then all the oil was going to run out. But I was flipping around the net, and came upon this list and it is very accurate to the time period specified. Check it:

 

1970: Urban Citizens Will Require Gas Masks by 1985

1970: Nitrogen buildup Will Make All Land Unusable

1970: Decaying Pollution Will Kill all the Fish

1970s: Killer Bees!

1970: Ice Age By 2000

1970: America Subject to Water Rationing by 1974 and Food Rationing By 1980

1971: New Ice Age Coming By 2020 or 2030

1972: New Ice Age By 2070

1972: Oil Depleted in 20 Years

1974: Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast

1974: Another Ice Age?

1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life

1976: Scientific Consensus Planet Cooling, Famines imminent

1977: Department of Energy Says Oil will Peak in 90s

1978: No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend

1980: Acid Rain Kills Life In Lakes

1980: Peak Oil In 2000

1988: Regional Droughts (that never happened) in 1990s

1988: Temperatures in DC Will Hit Record Highs

1988: Maldive Islands will Be Underwater by 2018 (they’re not)

1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000

1989: New York City’s West Side Highway Underwater by 2019 (it’s not)

1996: Peak Oil in 2020

2000: Children Won’t Know what Snow Is

2002: Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy

2002: Peak Oil in 2010

2004: Britain will Be Siberia by 2024

2005: Manhattan Underwater by 2015

2006: Super Hurricanes!

2008: Arctic will Be Ice Free by 2018

2008: Climate Genius Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013

2009: Climate Genius Prince Charles Says we Have 96 Months to Save World

2009: UK Prime Minister Says 50 Days to ‘Save The Planet From Catastrophe’

2009: Climate Genius Al Gore Moves 2013 Prediction of Ice-Free Arctic to 2014

2013: Arctic Ice-Free by 2015

2014: Only 500 Days Before ‘Climate Chaos

2019: Hey Greta, we need you to convince them it’s really going to happen this time Thanks -Dan Asmussen

 

That’s a pretty good list and you can add more to it if you want. Don’t forget Y2K in 2000 when all computers were going to crash, planes fall out of the sky, trains collide, power systems would shut down etc. Or the Ebola scare, or the flu scare, and on and on.

All of this is “money and control” and nothing more or less. Look at the Democrats running for 2020. They want to curb your ability to eat meat, drive your vehicles, etc. If they can control what you’re allowed to eat, you’re in trouble. What’s next, state sponsored food?? Making you pay a carbon tax “by the mile” is insanity. It’s control, and nothing more.

 

Look over that list I posted. Has ANY of it come true? No. and this little kids horrible predictions, like AOC’s insane predictions, will not come true either. Yet look at the disruptions they cause. Protesters have shut down highways, over climate change. So, hard working mom’s and dad’s trying to get to work, can’t get to work, because ignorant people are protesting something they don’t even understand.

 

Using children as proxies for your twisted agenda’s borders on Child abuse to me. I feel bad for that kid, and the tens of thousands of kids she’s scaring the hell out of.  I grew up having to practice hiding under my desk in case the Russians attacked our country. What silliness are these brainwashed kids going to have to do?  I wish not to find out. Sorry for the rant.

 

The Market

 

Have the wheels come off, or is only the axles bent? The last couple days have been pretty ugly and rightfully so. The manufacturing PMI’s and ISM’s were putrid at best, and really poked a stick in the eye of the “everything’s great” narrative.

 

But you all knew that their narrative has been wrong, because I’ve been telling you for quite some time. The economy, whether locally in the States or global, is slowing. Quickly.

 

So, here’s the equation; on one hand, slowing manufacturing, incredibly low velocity of money, no savings, immense debt levels. On the other, we have “Cloaked” QE4 and stock buy backs.  Which one wins?

 

In the short term, they can paper over the horrid economic numbers. But in the long run, we get to a point where all new debt, simply services old debt and then the music stops. We’re not that far away from that situation.

 

There’s a reason the Feds have been doing their Repo operations every day lately. The reason is, there’s no money, it’s all tied up in previous debt. The banks don’t want to lend, even at elevated rates, because they’re afraid of not getting paid.

 

So the game will continue for a while. The Feds will cut more rates and “print” more money. But this market is NOT healthy, not even a little bit.

 

Look at today’s 494 point plunge. That’s on top of yesterdays pukefest. That puts both the S&P and the DOW firmly between their respective 50 and 200 day moving averages. That’s “no mans” land. They could gain, drop or gain and drop, or drop and gain at any moment.

 

If you look back at the action of August you see the no man’s land madness. Up and down insane chop. We could be in for another dose of that, and with the China trade mission coming and the onslaught of earnings we’re going to get, you can expect it.

In the past, they’ve used the 200 day moving averages as a “bottom” of sorts. Well that’s only another 200 points lower on the DOW and I suspect we’ll get there. It’s about 50 S&P points lower from here.  I don’t suspect they’ll let the S&P get that low.

 

But make no mistake, even if they rescue us again, this market is running on nothing but Central bank stimulus and buy backs. That is NOT what investing is about, so play cautiously.   I’ll see you all on Sunday.

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