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11.4.2020 - A Short Wednesday Letter Bookmark

An Extremely Short Letter

Hi all. Usually my Wed and Sunday missives are pretty long winded affairs, but today’s letter is going to be pretty short and sweet. Last evening I found out that my probably closest friend, had a stroke. He’s stable, but not out of the woods. So, today my focus wasn’t on writing a letter, it was talking to his family and his wife and trying to hold things together.

So, the market has been on a tear. Last Friday at the close, we had peeled off about 400+ points. It was a deep red day. But come Monday, Tuesday and today, we’ve done nothing but soar straight up. In fact at one point today we were up about 800 points!

The common thinking is that markets hate uncertainty. Well, then they must be certain about something because they’ve sure piled on the points. I’ve heard a ton of “reasons” why were up so much. Everything from a Biden Presidency, but a republican senate will keep any really wild agenda’s in check and that’s wonderful, to Bidens spending will eclipse Trumps and the market loves all that stimulus money. I’ve heard a handful of other “excuses” too.

See, here’s the problem with the “original” theorem, the one saying Biden President and Republican Senate is the best of all worlds. The election is NOT decided, and frankly it’s going to be contested from here to hell and back.

Just late this afternoon, Pam Bondi and Rudy Giuliani were in Philadelphia and did a press conference. They’re suing Philly over Philly not letting the observers in to observe the ballots and the handling of them. They’re also considering suits in Wisconsin and Michigan and maybe even Nevada.

They have reason to do this. I’m just some guy on the internet and yet I’ve seen video of a man setting fire to about 80 ballots that were cast for Trump. I’ve heard from eye witnesses from folks being made to fill in their ballots with sharpies instead of pens, but because of bleed through, the machines won’t count sharpies ink. I’ve seen video’s of a man claiming he’s destroyed many ballots. I watched a video of a man who said he was an election observer, he was told to leave because they were shutting down for the night, only to find out once he was gone they went right ahead “counting’ votes.
Then of course there was the bizarre “shut down” of the counting last night. At Midnight Trump was leading quite big in Michigan and Wisconsin. Then all of a sudden they shut down all the counting. A few hours later they restart and a fresh load of 130K ballots shows up and EVERY ONE WENT TO BIDEN. That’s impossible.

So this election is going to be contested in a big way. Unlike Republicans of the past that simply rolled over every time the left did something, this is a different animal. Trump is not going to let the left get away with this IF indeed there’s been fraud. When it’s all over, we might very well have Trump winning. I don’t know. But if Wall Street hates uncertainty, we’re sure getting a lot of it.

We’ve just had 3 huge up days. We closed today well off the highs. Yes it was still a 360 point day, but as I said at one point it was close to 800. I have to imagine that the market is going to take a breather in here for a couple days. When the final bell rang, the DOW was actually below its 50 day moving average. That’s interesting.

My guess is that with the Trump side pushing back, the market is going to back up a bit and go into pause mode for a few days. I could see Biden announcing he’s won, I could see Trump announcing the lawsuits. Oh and by the way, what ever happened with Hunters Laptop, and the testimony from his business partner that yes indeed Joe Biden was getting kickbacks from China?? Poof? All gone and ‘nothing to see here??”

I just have a hunch all sorts of hell is going to break loose over the next week. Stay safe, and I’ll see you all on Sunday. 

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