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6.22.2016- Insiders Club Bookmark

6.22.2016

Hello all, welcome to Wednesday. 

So.....yesterday we had Yellen chatting with Congress and today we get day two of the event. Chances are pretty strong that she's not going to say anything new today, so she should be a non event. 

The one thing that is still an "event" is the British vote on leaving the EU. That is the big talk of the day, as they continue to try and measure the polls. So far it is actually too close to call, and the market will react to each and every news headline that suggests a stay or leave. 

2.9.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Jobs Galore?

 

On Friday we got the non farm payroll report, and boy…if the powers that be ever wanted to paint something to  look perfect, this was their Rembrandt moment. Not only did the headline number beat the estimates of a gain of 235K by coming in at 257K; they went back and did some of the most aggressive “revisions” to prior reports that I’ve ever seen.

Let me paint the picture for you. According to our Government bean counters the last few reports have shown the most job gains in 17 years. They say that wage growth was the best since 2008, as they told us wages grew by 0.5%. The BLS did revisions to the entire year of 2014, and remember the “polar vortex” last January? They said at the time we only got 144K jobs. Now they say that looking back, it was really 247K.  But that was nothing compared to what they did to November. Now they say November posted a gain of 465K jobs.  That’s the most monthly gains since the tech bubble boom of the late 90’s. A time when there really were jobs galore.

Insiders Club - 1.16.2015 Bookmark

1.16.2015

Yesterday I opened the day by saying we might have to tighten up our seatbelts. Today it looks like we might have to snug up our shoulder straps too.....

The fall out from the Swiss decision yesterday to unleash the peg from the Euro is still sweeping around the globe and the fall out is already starting. I mentioned to you all that this was going to create issues, and sure enough we are hearing of two currency brokers already that have declared insolvency over this. There will be more to come.

Insiders Club - 1.14.2015 Bookmark

1.14.2015

Hello everyone, welcome to Wednesday....

Yesterday afternoon I said  "But this is the age of insane volatility, and who knows what the last two hours will bring. I won't be surprised if we jump 150, or fall for another hundred" 

Well what we got was more wild swings. Consider the day as a whole. We were up 284 points in the morning. Then we fell all they way back, not ONLY to red... we plunged 140 points red, before they rushed us back up and we came within a dozen points of going green again.  We ended the day with the DOW off 27.

Insiders Club - 1.12.2015 Bookmark

1.12.2015

Good morning everyone. I hope you all had a great weekend, and the weather wasn't too ugly for you. Last week I had a terrible bout of the flu, which no doubt knocked me for a loop. But by Sunday I figured I was well enough to at least take our walk along the beach. Wow, I couldn't believe how much that virus took out of me. Just a mile into the walk, I had to stop and sit down. I was just exhausted.  (we generally do two miles minimum)

So we stopped where we were, got some sun, and then meandered back at a leisurely pace.  It was worth it, it was a beautiful day.

1.11.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

More 2015 Views

On Wednesday we put forth one of our views concerning what might happen during 2015 and we said that 1) the Fed’s would hike interest rates, but only by a quarter of a point, meaning it is for show rather than effect, and 2) the Feds will NOT restart QE.

Today we’re going to explore another item on the question list…Is the US and Russia going to be in a shooting war? Interestingly that question is tied directly to the reason why we feel the Fed’s will hike rates, and will  not do any QE.  Let me explain…

It is our belief that the Fed’s know the US debt is too big, the economy too damaged and ultimately the system is going to experience a hefty crash. If they fight it with more QE, and keep rates at zero, when the crash happens everyone will know there’s no reason to ever have a Central bank. It would be obvious that they can fix nothing. Thus, they’re acting like the economy is great, all is well, and they will go along with that charade by tossing a token rate hike at us and NOT doing any QE.  But they’re praying for an “event”. Something so big, that when the economy fails, they can blame it on the event, and not their impotence.

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