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3.22.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Gold

You don’t see it. It isn’t on TV. No one you know talks about it. The people that do are shunned as crazy. Those folks are avoided. Am I talking about Gold? No. I’m talking about the events that give reason to ponder owning gold.

A quick history lesson…Gold was trading around 285 dollars an ounce back in 1999/2000. We started pounding the table on Gold in spring of 2000, with outlandish claims that it would reach 1000 dollars within ten years. Well, it did that. And why did we think it was going to run so much? Because we saw the things that normal every day people didn’t see.

3.15.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Listen Up

The ONLY reason someone would read our articles is because they just know deep inside that something is terribly “wrong” with the world, yet they can’t figure out what.  Which reminds me of some of the conversation in the 1999 movie “The Matrix”

Consider the following dialogue…

3.11.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

What You Should Do

On Sunday I wrote a controversial piece about why we could see some major market dislocations ( a crash possibly) heading our way in the Aug – October time frame. While we got a lot of great feedback from the letter, one of the big questions people had was …what do we do about it?

That’s a great question. But it will indeed be focused on what you’ll allow yourself to believe might happen. That is going to be a very individual decision.

3.8.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Crash in September?

 

If you’ve been reading us for any length of time you know that I’ve mentioned that we might see some interesting events in the September/October time frame. That has prompted people to ask “why then?” which is a very good question. But the reasons for my observations will cause some people to question my sanity. That’s okay; it’s been done a million times before.

Let me lay out some ground work before we get into some pretty interesting discussion. Every one of you lives through cycles, and most of them we don’t even pay attention to, they’re just “the way it is”. For instance you know with NO doubt that when you go to bed tonight, that tomorrow the sun will rise. It has for billions of years and will continue to for billions more.  That’s a cycle. You also have no problem declaring that as sure as the sun will rise, your winter will be followed by spring, which is followed by summer and then autumn will appear. That’s a never ending cycle as the earth makes its travels around the sun.


3.4.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

We need Hookers in the GDP

I don’t mean hidden sleight of hand. I don’t mean “ringers” or other fake data. What I’m talking about is actual hookers…prostitutes. But not only prostitutes, we’re talking crack cocaine, powder cocaine, heroin, cannabis, ecstasy and amphetamines. Why? Because these are the things that are now included in Italy’s GDP reporting.

I know you think I’m making this up, but I’m not. A few years back virtually every nation decided to change the way they measure GDP so that they could make things look better. Here in the states they changed the rules to include such mundane things as research and development, old TV show reruns, Artistic originals including books, movies, TV shows, music, photographs and greeting cards — yes, greeting cards.

I’m not being militant here. I understand the idea behind some of these moves. For instance take a movie like Star Wars. When it was first released, they hoped it would be something special and make a splash at the box office. Well it did and that should figure into the GDP for a nation because indeed money was spent both to make it and to see it. But who would have known that it would grow into multiple billions of dollars in revenues over the years as it became somewhat of a cult following?  Are we to ignore the billions spent on Star wars clothes, toys, spin off’s etc? No and we shouldn’t.

3.1.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

What color is that Dress?

I’ve just come through a particularly trying week, one in which my mother-in-law passed away, and along with it the grief and sorrows of the family. As you might imagine I’ve been preoccupied with that event, and not able to devote the time I generally spend in watching the madness of our world unravel.  But sometimes the enormity of what takes place simply muscles its way into your life no matter the distraction.

This week was surely one of those times. In the course of just 10 days, the things that we’ve seen transpire would have taken one’s breath away in virtually any other time in history. But in 2015? Nah, not so much.  See, we had a dress color to debate. The internet and the news media was obsessed with trying to figure out if the dress in question was one of white and gold, or blue’s and black. It was massively important stuff, so much so that Hollywood figures, Country music stars, journalists, doctors of psychology, and more weighed in with their thoughts.  It was by far the most important discussion of the last several days.

2.25.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Social Bubbles

Mania’s and bubbles have been around for centuries. Probably the most famous one of old was the “tulip” mania of the 1600’s.  At the peak of tulip mania, in March 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled craftsman. It is generally considered the first recorded speculative bubble.  Basically what happed was that the Dutch had become quite wealthy via new trade opportunities and people had more cash than ever before. So when the rare flower bulbs first showed up, “everyone that’s anyone” had to have one to show how cool they were. There were many tales of people trading family farms and homes for a single bulb. Of course it all went terribly bad as all bubbles do, and many lost their entire life’s savings.

2.18.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Is It Coming?

 

Each week we lay out the horrors that we see concerning the global economy, the debt loads and the desperations. We put out so much of it; one could start to wonder if we enjoy relating all this horrid news. To that I say, no not at all. Which brings up the simple question…is another crash a certainty or not?  Is all the bad news simply fear mongering for eyeballs like a car wreck attracts “rubber neckers?”


2.9.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Jobs Galore?

 

On Friday we got the non farm payroll report, and boy…if the powers that be ever wanted to paint something to  look perfect, this was their Rembrandt moment. Not only did the headline number beat the estimates of a gain of 235K by coming in at 257K; they went back and did some of the most aggressive “revisions” to prior reports that I’ve ever seen.

Let me paint the picture for you. According to our Government bean counters the last few reports have shown the most job gains in 17 years. They say that wage growth was the best since 2008, as they told us wages grew by 0.5%. The BLS did revisions to the entire year of 2014, and remember the “polar vortex” last January? They said at the time we only got 144K jobs. Now they say that looking back, it was really 247K.  But that was nothing compared to what they did to November. Now they say November posted a gain of 465K jobs.  That’s the most monthly gains since the tech bubble boom of the late 90’s. A time when there really were jobs galore.

2.4.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Oil and the Big Save

Please don’t take this the wrong way folks, but it has to be said. On Sunday I laid out the numbers that we had to hold, or we very well could have been facing a serious market decline. I titled the letter “Crash alert – High”  I  was NOT predicting a crash in that letter. I was saying that we had very important technical levels that had to hold or we could then see a much deeper correction.  A lot of folks evidently didn’t pay attention to that part. All they saw was “crash” not the levels that needed to break to create one.

On Monday the market fell right down to those levels. Then it chopped around for hours as the “fight was on” between shorts and longs. We had fallen 120, then bounced for 100 then went red again by 40.  The day was very “up in the air” as to where it was going to go. But very late in the session, the FT put out a headline that the Greeks had changed their tune and weren’t lobbying for total debt relief, and willing to work out a repayment schedule. That was the “hot button” the market needed to blast higher off those numbers.

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