The FREE Investment Newsletter That Really Works!
If you’ve been reading us for any length of time you know that I’ve mentioned that we might see some interesting events in the September/October time frame. That has prompted people to ask “why then?” which is a very good question. But the reasons for my observations will cause some people to question my sanity. That’s okay; it’s been done a million times before.
Let me lay out some ground work before we get into some pretty interesting discussion. Every one of you lives through cycles, and most of them we don’t even pay attention to, they’re just “the way it is”. For instance you know with NO doubt that when you go to bed tonight, that tomorrow the sun will rise. It has for billions of years and will continue to for billions more. That’s a cycle. You also have no problem declaring that as sure as the sun will rise, your winter will be followed by spring, which is followed by summer and then autumn will appear. That’s a never ending cycle as the earth makes its travels around the sun.
Each week we lay out the horrors that we see concerning the global economy, the debt loads and the desperations. We put out so much of it; one could start to wonder if we enjoy relating all this horrid news. To that I say, no not at all. Which brings up the simple question…is another crash a certainty or not? Is all the bad news simply fear mongering for eyeballs like a car wreck attracts “rubber neckers?”
On Friday we got the non farm payroll report, and boy…if the powers that be ever wanted to paint something to look perfect, this was their Rembrandt moment. Not only did the headline number beat the estimates of a gain of 235K by coming in at 257K; they went back and did some of the most aggressive “revisions” to prior reports that I’ve ever seen.
Let me paint the picture for you. According to our Government bean counters the last few reports have shown the most job gains in 17 years. They say that wage growth was the best since 2008, as they told us wages grew by 0.5%. The BLS did revisions to the entire year of 2014, and remember the “polar vortex” last January? They said at the time we only got 144K jobs. Now they say that looking back, it was really 247K. But that was nothing compared to what they did to November. Now they say November posted a gain of 465K jobs. That’s the most monthly gains since the tech bubble boom of the late 90’s. A time when there really were jobs galore.