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6.8.2016 - Insiders Club Bookmark

6.8.2016

Morning all....

Running a bit late this morning, as it appears like both windows and my online security decided to do a bunch of updates this morning. Swell. 

Anyway,

6.7.2016 - Insiders Club Bookmark

6.7.2016

Hello everyone, welcome to a new day. 

For all you folks in the Tampa area, I hope you're holding up well from all the rain and flooding. Yesterday and last evening was just relentless with wave after wave of rain squalls and 50 MPH winds. There's random destruction all across our area, so be careful if traveling around town. 

6.6.2016 - Insiders Club Bookmark

6.6.2016

Good morning all, welcome to the new week. 

Our weekend didn't go as we'd hoped. After a tremendous Friday evening where the wife and I attended the opening of a hit play from England, Saturday was simply oppressively hot. You know it's hot when the candles in your garage are liquid.  But Sunday was even worse. The leading storms of the Tropical Depression were coming across our coast, bringing torrential rain and lightening on and off all day. Needless to say, our Sunday bike and beach adventure was not to be. 

6.5.2016 - Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

38K

 

So, Friday was “jobs” day. The first Friday of every month brings us the “non farm payroll report”.  This piece of data is watched by every market participant, because the labor data is correlated to monetary policy such as interest rates.

 

The Fed’s have been sitting on their pedestal telling us how wonderful the recovery is and that the labor markets are so hot that they’re worried about overheating. For months now they’ve had a smug attitude about how many jobs there are, and that their monetary policy has indeed saved the world.

6.5.2016 - Tropical Depression! Bookmark

If any of you reside on the West Coast of Florida from Tallahassee to Naples, buckle down because a Tropical Depression is scheduled to hit our coast Monday.  Stay safe out there! 


By the way, the new edition of the Financial Intelligence Report is now posted, and in that letter we discuss the jobs report, and we try and explain the real reason we can have such a lousy report, while the market flirts with all time highs. 

6.3.2016 - Jobs Report Worst Since 2010! Bookmark

The non farm payroll report just hit and estimates were for a gain of 160 - 190K. Well get this...we got a whopping 38K. But it was much worse than that. The last two months were revised DOWN by 59K jobs, the labor force participation rate fell and the Household report posted just 24K.  Shall I go on? Sure...the Fed's Birth/death model added 224K jobs to the report. Jobs that don't exist. So without that addition we'd have just 180K jobs. 

6.3.2016 - Insiders Club Bookmark

6.3.2016

Morning all, we've made it to jobs Friday. 

Since I got up this morning the futures have been inching higher. From slightly red at 5:45 to up 1.5, they've pulled the S&P up.  Around the globe most markets are slightly in the green.  

So the big question of the day is this... there's a two day Fed meeting on the 14th and 15th. Is this jobs report going to be instrumental in their decision? 

6.2.2016 - The New FIR is Posted Bookmark

The Wednesday edition of the Financial Intelligence Report is up, and in it we look at the incredible changes between the 50's and today.  Because of our busy lives we often don't see the changes, sort of like boiling a frog. But they are indeed profound.  Stop in and give it a read, I think you'll be fascinated. 

6.2.2016 - Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Every Day is Groundhog Day

The Beatles did a song called “A Day in the Life” and I want to snag a couple verses for you…

Woke up, fell out of bed
Dragged a comb across my head
Found my way downstairs and drank a cup
And looking up I noticed I was late
Found my coat and grabbed my hat
Made the bus in seconds flat
Found my way upstairs and had a smoke
And somebody spoke and I went into a dream

Isn’t that the way?  We get up and scurry around, getting ready for our day. We’re usually in a rush, as life has a habit of getting in the way. Day after day it goes, we wake, we work, we shuttle the kids, we eat, and we fall in bed ready to do it again the next day. 

6.2.2016 - Insiders Club Bookmark

6.2.2016

Good morning all, welcome to a new day. 

Despite dropping 122 DOW points and 10 Spoozies yesterday, they fired up the magic levitation machines and by the close we had the DOW up 2, and the S&P up 2.  Amazing eh? 

I think one of the biggest things I face almost daily is dealing with people who still think the market's are free. There's still millions of folks that actually believe this market is free and open, and each day it ends up where ever the millions of investors that have bought or sold...take it.  Well that's all wonderful thinking, but it's baloney.

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