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Insiders Club - 7.30.2015 Bookmark

7.30.2015

Hello everyone, welcome to Thursday...

Insiders Club - 5.29.2015 Bookmark

5.29.2015

Good morning all, we've made it to Friday. 

4.29.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

How’s That Workin?

The all seeing, all knowing grand poobah’s which we affectionately call the Federal Reserve; have told us for years that they, and ONLY they know how to steer an economy to prosperity.  Over the years they’ve hiked interest rates, cut interest rates, printed money, bought back Treasuries, “twisted”, QE’d and God only knows what else. So, how’d they do?

3.4.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

We need Hookers in the GDP

I don’t mean hidden sleight of hand. I don’t mean “ringers” or other fake data. What I’m talking about is actual hookers…prostitutes. But not only prostitutes, we’re talking crack cocaine, powder cocaine, heroin, cannabis, ecstasy and amphetamines. Why? Because these are the things that are now included in Italy’s GDP reporting.

I know you think I’m making this up, but I’m not. A few years back virtually every nation decided to change the way they measure GDP so that they could make things look better. Here in the states they changed the rules to include such mundane things as research and development, old TV show reruns, Artistic originals including books, movies, TV shows, music, photographs and greeting cards — yes, greeting cards.

I’m not being militant here. I understand the idea behind some of these moves. For instance take a movie like Star Wars. When it was first released, they hoped it would be something special and make a splash at the box office. Well it did and that should figure into the GDP for a nation because indeed money was spent both to make it and to see it. But who would have known that it would grow into multiple billions of dollars in revenues over the years as it became somewhat of a cult following?  Are we to ignore the billions spent on Star wars clothes, toys, spin off’s etc? No and we shouldn’t.

Insiders Club - 12.23.2014 Bookmark

12.23.2014

Oh look...the futures are rising!  Imagine that.

Yesterday, on an incredibly low volume session, the market pushed for new highs. They are so desperate to make it look like life is grand in the US that they've decided that we should probably end the year at all time highs.

Yesterday marked something like the 50th "new high" for the year.

11.25.2014 GDP upgrade Bookmark

I'm trying not to be the bad guy, but these reports lately are beginning to make me scratch my head. Not long ago the Philly Fed posted a 40 reading. That was one of the strongest readings in decades. But yesterday the PMI report missed estimates and fell. Today the GDP gets upgraded from 3.5 to 3.9%, but at the very same time, small businesses are telling us that they don't see any growth, just tepid action.

Take all of these with a grain of salt folks.

Insiders Club - 11.25.2014 Bookmark

11.25.2014

Good morning all. I'm running a tad late this morning because I had to go get some blood drawn. Wow, there must be a lot of sickly folks because I got to the lab at 7 am and there was already 9 people there ahead of me waiting for the doors to open. In any event, I'm here and settled in and ready for my daily madness.

Yesterday the DOW wasn't quite as strong as I figured it might be, but we did end green. The S&P and the NASDAQ were considerably stronger on a points/percent basis. This morning when I went to the lab, the futures were just barely green but that changed at 8:30 when the revision to the GDP hit. It was massively stronger than anyone expected. From the last reading at 3.5% now they say it was 3.9%.

10.30.2014 Did the Fed's Know? Bookmark

This morning we got our first look at the 3rd quarter GDP number and it came in pretty strong at + 3.5%. So the question is this...was the Fed so hawkish in their statement yesterday because they knew they had a strong GDP print in their pocket? You bet they did.

Insiders Club - 10.30.2014 Bookmark

10.30.2014

This Halloween season brings back some pretty nasty memories for me. It was two years ago this week, when Super Storm Sandy landed dead center in the Brigantine Inlet of NJ, just 3 miles from my house. That evening and the following 3 weeks were some tough times for a lot of my closest friends.  I lost my home completely as did many of my neighbors on the bayfront. But even folks living 5 and 6 blocks inland on the lagoons had water 4, 5 even 6 feet high crashing through their homes. It's certainly a memory that haunts me during the Halloween season. Even now, exactly two years later, many folks still don't understand the struggles a lot of people are still going through in my town.

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