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1.11.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

More 2015 Views

On Wednesday we put forth one of our views concerning what might happen during 2015 and we said that 1) the Fed’s would hike interest rates, but only by a quarter of a point, meaning it is for show rather than effect, and 2) the Feds will NOT restart QE.

Today we’re going to explore another item on the question list…Is the US and Russia going to be in a shooting war? Interestingly that question is tied directly to the reason why we feel the Fed’s will hike rates, and will  not do any QE.  Let me explain…

It is our belief that the Fed’s know the US debt is too big, the economy too damaged and ultimately the system is going to experience a hefty crash. If they fight it with more QE, and keep rates at zero, when the crash happens everyone will know there’s no reason to ever have a Central bank. It would be obvious that they can fix nothing. Thus, they’re acting like the economy is great, all is well, and they will go along with that charade by tossing a token rate hike at us and NOT doing any QE.  But they’re praying for an “event”. Something so big, that when the economy fails, they can blame it on the event, and not their impotence.

1.9.2015 Easy Come, Easy Go? Bookmark

After gaining over 300 points on Thursday, Friday started the day with a 200 point drop. Why the big reversal? I think you could take your pick of excuses. Locusts, floods, aliens, bad hair, hangnails, halitosis, you name it. The excuse most are using is that the jobs report was "so good" it means the Fed's might hike rates.  Well I have an issue with "so good".

Insiders Club - 1.9.2015 Bookmark

1.9.2015

Good morning everyone, welcome to Friday and the jobs report.

Yesterday was a case study in absurd. Ignoring every instance of the fundamentals of investing, the market gained over 300 points in one session, simply because Fed head Evans suggested to reporters that hiking rates would be "catastrophic". That got the market all excited that they weren't going to have to worry about rising rates in 2015.

1.8.2015 Is the Fed Reading My Letters? Bookmark

Does the Fed read our Newsletter? Hey, who knows right? Last night we laid out the reasons why we feel that indeed the Fed's will hike rates by a minuscule amount this year. Not three hours after sending that, Charles Evans, one of the most dovish of the Fed heads; came out to say and I quote "raising rates would be catastrophic". That got the futures soaring as the hopes for zero rates for ever swept the markets.

1.7.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

Rate Hikes

We’re beginning to discuss some of the major themes that will shape the global economy for 2015 and as I stated on Sunday, this is going to take a lot of discussion and brutally frank dialog. The gloves have to come off for this discussion, and you have to be open enough to at least consider some of the issues we’re going to be talking about.

Anyone with a functioning brain should be able to tell you that the Fed’s cannot raise interest rates. In fact most people can lay out very good explanations as to why they will keep them at zero for ever, and restart the QE program. Hey, I get that. It does indeed make the most sense ON THE SURFACE.

Insiders Club - 1.8.2015 Bookmark

1.8.2015

Good morning all, let's have a look around....

Does Charles Evans read the Financial Intelligence Report?  Maybe he does, because just a couple hours after we sent out last nights issue where we explain why we feel the Feds will hike rates by a quarter of a point, Mr. "uber Dove" Charles Evans told reporters that 'raising rates would be a catastrophe".  Instantly the overnight futures soared as everyone took that to mean rate hikes are surely off the table.

1.7.2015 Terror In France Bookmark

Terror In France.
While the reports are still sketchy, it looks like some militants have shot up a bunch of folks at a French magazine known for political and Religious satire. Some reports have the terrorists shouting "allah!".  If I wasn't fighting the flu, and having all I can do to just keep my head up, I'd go off on this in a big way. We've seen this sort of things over and over and then the Islamic leaders rush out to tell us how Islam is a religion of peace.   Well I'm sorry, a dozen dead people doesn't denote peace to me. Any radicals that think they need to shoot up innocent folks for the "crime" of making a cartoon...need to be hung.

Sorry folks.... that story just rubs me wrong this morning.

Insiders Club - 1.7.2015 Bookmark

1.7.2015

Good morning folks.

I've been both praised and criticized over the years for chatting with our members as "friends" instead of strictly a business relationship. If you are one of those that doesn't like a little personal injection into the conversations, I'm sorry, but it won't stop. Because we've had a habit of sharing personal issues, and talking like friends, I've met and become friendly with dozens of folks that I'd never have had the pleasure to know

Insiders Club - 1.6.2015 Bookmark

1.6.2015

Well, that was certainly interesting. On what you could consider the first "real" day of the New year, investors decided they wanted to lock in profits from the previous year. In a way it was almost comical to watch as CNBC was literally in a panic trying to tell everyone that it was fine, all is well, this is normal, etc. etc.

But the fact is that we did fall 330 points on the DOW and almost 40 on the S&P. That put both averages well below their 50 day moving average.

1.4.2015 Financial Intelligence Report Bookmark

2015

Over the past week, I’ve seen many folks make their 2015 predictions, and like usual they run the whole gambit of possibilities. In general, trying to predict events and outcomes for an entire year is futile at best, and frankly, stupid at worst. Even the best of the best are rarely more than 50% accurate. Yet we do it, because we get to look smart if indeed we get a few things right.

All that said, 2015 has the ability to be a monumental year. We could see events unfold that literally change the shape of the entire worlds Geo-politics. Notice I said “could see” and that’s because we’re going to be talking about very big-picture topics; the kind that don’t always evolve as you think they will, or even when you think they will.  The problem before me is this…there are about a dozen topics we need to discuss, and all of them tie into each other. You simply cannot wrap up the worlds problems and solve them in one newsletter however. So obviously this is going to take a few issues to get through.

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