10.8.2015

Good morning all, welcome to Thursday morning.

The big anticipation last night was that everyone's eyes were on China. After being closed for 7 days for Holiday, the wonder was...would they open big and join the global rally party, or would they be the Debbie Downers and be weak. Well what really happened was sort of "meh".  They were down, they were up.... they didn't do much of anything. But because they didn't outright crash, everyone was figuring that they'd see big fat green futures this morning. Well....that didn't happen either. Although they are well off the morning lows, at 8 am we have the DOW futures off 56 and the S&P down 6.  That's a big improvement over 6am when I saw DOW - 78 and S&P down 9.

9.28.2015

Morning all, welcome back from your weekend. Once again the "not so sunny" Florida rains kept us from our weekend bike and beach fun, as we continue to have the wettest weather anyone here can ever remember. But, we salvaged the weekend anyway and made it productive. I hope you did too. ( by the way, the eclipse last night was pretty fun to watch... we had some clouds, but overall we could witness it. I hope you did too)

You’ve Been Double Crossed

 

We face a dichotomy. It certainly doesn’t get much press and frankly most people never put two and two together, but I believe it is something we need to at least give some thought to.

 

We know the Central Banks of the world have inflated bubbles of enormous size in both bonds and assets, especially equities. Why have they done that? Well the common thinking is that they’ve done that to ward off economic disasters and keep economies moving higher.  Okay, let’s go with that for a minute.

9.18.2015

Well, you all saw that "disaster" yesterday. The Fed's, always looking for something to blame the ills of our economy on, punted on doing a rate hike and used the excuse of "China" possibly affecting the global economy.

For weeks we've been talking about something wicked coming this fall. There's approximately 20 different "things" that are aligning for the September time frame that we figured could really rock the markets. Well, they didn't wait.  They didn't wait to see what would happen when the UN holds it's meetings or when the Pope visits the White house. They didn't wait for the end of the "Shemitah" and the craziness that often coincides with that. No, they looked at China and the currency wars going on and decided to bail out.

Our opinion is that the market has set a "top" back in May and we're embarking on a long term bear market. Yes there's going to be wicked bounces, yes there will be money to be made trading long and short. But the "long term holds" idea is dead in the water now. We've had 6 years of up, we went too far, and now it's time for some payback. Be careful out there folks.

I'm sure that by now all of you know of the massive blast that rocked the port/warehouse district in China. Folks I don't want to be the conspiracy nut here, but that whole story is NOT adding up. Why did China send "nuclear scientists" to the area? Why was there a mushroom cloud? Why was the damage so great that a "lake" formed at the blast site, very similar to the lakes created when Russia tested their nuclear bombs?

Was that some kind of an attack? Was some type of device set off?  I find it funny how there were a couple small explosions, sort of like to get everyone's attention on the area and then that "big blast" that was then of course caught on cell phones. Now there's rumor that the death toll could be over 1400 and not the 100 we're being told. All in all that whole situation is very sketchy. Something stinks.

China, In or Out?

A couple weeks ago, word hit us that the IMF board was suggesting to the IMF Governors that they wait another year before allowing China’s Yuan into the IMF’s “SDR” basket.  However, the verbiage seemed odd to me. So let’s take a minute here to consider what I think is going on.

8.11.2015

Morning everyone, welcome to another day.

Okay there's no sense in yammering about yesterday, it was another in a long string of mindless run ups, based on hype and hope that China's going to do more QE. Our only question is if it's going to last a few days or not. We'll get to that in a moment.

8.3.2015

Hello Everyone, welcome back from the weekend. I hope it was a good one for you all. Down here in "not so sunny" Florida, the insane rains continue. In fact as I'm writing this, a tremendous thunder storm is raging and once again our entire yard is underwater...there's just no place for it to go any more. The ground is saturated.  I wish those in charge of weather modification would steer some of this out of our area and into California.

7.31.2015

Good morning folks... we've made it to another Friday...