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1.30.2019 - Insiders Bookmark

1.30.2019

Morning all, I hope you're sheltered from the weather.  I'm sitting here looking at the weather map and shaking my head, as we're seeing temps that are quite unbelievable. -25 in Chicago? -27 in areas of Wisconsin?  Wind chills of -60? 

These numbers are no joke folks. Stay safe. Stay inside as much as you can, and if you go out, make it as quick as you can. 



Well, we sort of saw that one coming. Yesterday was a big pause day for the market as they waited on the Feds, and China talks and... AAPL. 

After the bell AAPL announced earnings that evidently weren't "as bad as they might have feared," and "boom" they're up sharply. 

Here's the deal. Not long ago AAPL came out and said that they'd stop reporting unit sales, and they "guided" lower for the first time in like 15 years. So that had everyone in a panic that AAPL was in terrible shape. 

Well, it was pretty horrible, especially in China. Revenues from China sales fell over 25%.  Yet just like the old adage is to buy the rumor and sell the news, they flipped it and sold the news of the guidance slash,  and bought the actual release.

That's why we're looking at green futures this morning. 

Granted I'm typing this at 5:40 am, but we see the DOW looking to open + 80. The NASDAQ +50.


But that could change today, as we've got the Fed decision and press conference this afternoon, and we've got the start of the China trade talks. While I'm sure there's not going to be any rate hike today and their language is going to be fairly dovish, I'm more interested in what they're going to say about the balance sheet. 

Wall Street is playing down the effect of the winding down of the balance sheet, but I feel that's a mistake. Their balance sheet was the liquidity that pushed all these markets to bubble territory. Take away that juice, and what's to replace it? Nothing.

Most are thinking that if they stop hiking rates, then everything will be just fine. I don't agree with that. To be "fine" the way Wall Street defines fine ( meaning the market continues higher)  I think they have to stop hiking rates AND slow the rate of balance sheet reductions. That's the part of Powell's talk I'll be looking for. 

There's still a ton of earnings coming at us today, so get your popcorn. 

We'll know a lot more about what this market is all about after we get past today. Actually, past tomorrow morning, because it will take them another half a day to digest the Fed. 

With that in mind, today's simply a watch day. 

So, I'll get with you around 11, and see what else has developed. I'll see you then. 

1.29.2019 - Insider Bookmark

1.29.2019

Hi everyone, how's your morning going?  Mine took an interesting little twist. 

If I'm not going to my wife's office, I usually play the good husband role and go out and squeegee the car windows for her. Down here in Florida, your car is covered in dew every single day if it's outside and not under a tree or tarp. 

1.19.2019 - Insider Bookmark

1.16.2019

Good morning everyone, another one of these Friday things has rolled right up on us. 

Did you see it? Were you there yesterday when it happened? For hours on end, the market was almost frozen in time. Then just after 2:15 the market started moving higher, and then started screaming higher. Obviously someone said something. 

1.14.2019 - Insider Bookmark

1.14.2019

Good morning everyone, welcome to Monday. Ew, right?  Well, yeah. 

Anyway, as is my custom, I hope that your weekend was a pleasant one. I know that for a lot of my friends up north, the weekend brought a lot of cold and snow. My "bestest" buddy from the Jersey bayfront sent me a picture of his outdoor thermometer reading 25 degrees and another of the snow covering his house, yard and canal. Brrrr!

1.7.2019 - Insiders Bookmark

1.7.2019

Hi all, welcome back from your weekend. 

I start each Monday asking if you enjoyed your weekend, and I truly hope in fact that you did. Our Saturday was about as mundane as it gets. The wife got her hair done, I helped my Mom around the house, yada yada yada.  

1.2.2019 - Insiders Bookmark

1.2.2019

Mornin all!

So it is indeed the "new year" and we can all pray it's a wonderful one for all.

How was your NYE and NYD?  Our Eve was just as I said, fairly subdued. Mom had her birthday dinner, and we all just settled in for the evening. We stopped going out on NYE 25 years ago, and this year was no different.

12.11.2018 - Insider Bookmark

12.11.2018

Hello everyone, welcome to another day. 

Well, yesterday ended up the way I thought it might, but it didn't "get there"  the way I thought it would.  What I wanted was a big plunge right at the open that peeled off 300 or more points, and then a rip roaring "Vee" style recovery. Instead we actually opened green, then rolled over and slowly fell 500 points. Then, we slowly started working our way back. 

11.20.2018 - Insider Bookmark

11.20.2018

Morning all. 

Yesterday wiped out the run up  from last Thursday and Friday. But this morning, it seems that they're more than willing to dump more stock. 

11.13.2018 - Insider Bookmark

11.13.2018

Mornin' all, it's another day, and it proves to be an interesting one. 

So yesterday, the market was having a bad hair day almost all session. Just about every time I looked in the morning, it was down 200, 270, 235, etc. But then heading into the afternoon, the bottom fell out and we simply started spiraling down hill. We were down 460 by 1 pm. One might have thought that was "enough" for one session. It wasn't. We ended down 600.

10.27.2018 - Free Investing Newsletter Bookmark

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