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Insiders Club - 2.20.2015 Bookmark


Good morning all.....

It's Friday, and not a day too soon.

You all know the plot. The market is being tossed around on the whims of oil prices and what's happening with the Greece situation. Neither of those issues are going to be solved today, so you can certainly expect a bit more chop. However we also have the issue of technical levels to deal with. While the S&P has managed to keep itself above the December resistance at about 2094, the DOW hasn't been able to cross that level.

Insiders Club -2.18.2015 Bookmark


Good morning all, welcome to Wednesday.

Yesterday the market was really flat, which in a way is a big victory for the bulls...especially considering that we were indeed closer to the Greeks leaving the Euro-zone than any time  before. What I found almost funny was the late moment "push" where we saw them take the market from down a point, to up 28 in the last 4 minutes of trading.  A clearer sign of desperation, I can't remember.

Insiders Club - 2.4.2015 Bookmark


Good morning all, are you ready for another fun filled day of counterintuitive market action?  Good because you'll probably be fed more of it today....

I laid the numbers out this weekend. The market HAD to defend the December lows, or chances of a really deep correction were very high. So Monday we reached down and touched them, and tried to bounce. But as the day was wearing on, they couldn't get any traction. We were down 120, up 100, down 100, etc. So they manufactured some interesting headlines about the newly elected Greek Government abandoning what it ran on, and giving in to the debt load.  It was bogus but it did the job, we gained 200 points.

Yesterday they ran for the roses. It didn't matter that the Greeks denied that they have changed their tune, it didn't matter that 5 economic reports missed their estimates. In fact in a very strange twist, last week we were told that weak oil was great for the consumer and ultimately wonderful for the economy. As oil was raging higher yesterday, we were told that higher oil prices means the economy is growing and that's good for the consumer and the economy.  Confused? You should be. They can't both be right.

Insiders Club - 1.28.2015 Bookmark


Good morning everyone, welcome to Wednesday, and I hope it's a good one for you.

The pace of the insanity that is careening around the world lately is certainly spectacular. One of the more fun aspects of what I do for a living is waking up, flipping on the monitors and looking around for the latest example of lunacy. It doesn't take long to find.

Today we learn that in NY, a mom; unemployed and on Food stamps, with no appreciable income, wanted to buy her daughter a car to get to work. They went to a BMW dealer, and told the people that she's got no job, no income. They assured her that indeed she qualifies for the car. She got it.

Insiders Club - 1.20.2015 Bookmark


Good morning everyone, welcome back from your 3 day weekend. It was glorious taking that extra day "off" from the markets, so that our burnt out brain cells could try and repair themselves. But here we are, and instantly the brain cell burning has resumed. Consider...

JNJ released earnings today. If all you had to go by was the "hype" from CNBC and analysts, you'd swear they were incredible earnings. But as usual, when we take a quick scan of the release, we see a lot of things that the cheerleaders must be blind to. First off, Revenues actually fell Year over year. Is that good? Nah, not really. But wait it gets better. They released "non GAAP" earnings of 1.27.   Guess what they'd have had to admit to if they were following GAAP rules?  89 cents. Yes folks, Pro-forma, non-GAAP added almost 40 cents a share to their report.

I can smell my smoldering brain cells now.....

Insiders Club - 1.14.2015 Bookmark


Hello everyone, welcome to Wednesday....

Yesterday afternoon I said  "But this is the age of insane volatility, and who knows what the last two hours will bring. I won't be surprised if we jump 150, or fall for another hundred" 

Well what we got was more wild swings. Consider the day as a whole. We were up 284 points in the morning. Then we fell all they way back, not ONLY to red... we plunged 140 points red, before they rushed us back up and we came within a dozen points of going green again.  We ended the day with the DOW off 27.

Insiders Club - 1.12.2015 Bookmark


Good morning everyone. I hope you all had a great weekend, and the weather wasn't too ugly for you. Last week I had a terrible bout of the flu, which no doubt knocked me for a loop. But by Sunday I figured I was well enough to at least take our walk along the beach. Wow, I couldn't believe how much that virus took out of me. Just a mile into the walk, I had to stop and sit down. I was just exhausted.  (we generally do two miles minimum)

So we stopped where we were, got some sun, and then meandered back at a leisurely pace.  It was worth it, it was a beautiful day.

Insiders Club - 12.15.2014 Bookmark


Good morning all, welcome to a new week....

Everyone knows about last week. It was the worst performance of the S&P in over two years. We saw something like 700 points flee the DOW. It was indeed the very sell off that we expected the week before, it was simply postponed a week.

There's a lot of reasons why we got the sell off. Profit taking, locking in yearly performance, tax selling, crashing oil prices and a host of other reasons. The only important question is this... is the selling over? I don't truly know that answer, but I can give my guess/opinion about it.

Insiders Club - 12.12.2014 Bookmark


If it wasn't so ridiculously tragic, it would all be funny. But it is tragic, and thus, cannot be truly funny. What am I talking about? Oh, just the entire Government-Wall Street connection that continues to make life wonderful for criminal bankers, while John Q Public gets CIA tortured.

The spending bill includes language that says the banks can now trade their derivatives through entities that are part and parcel of the FDIC programs. Obviously the result of that is the fact that if those very derivatives go "poof" in the night, the banks aren't on the hook... the FDIC, meaning YOU and ME  are on the hook.

Insiders Club - 12.5.2014 Bookmark


Good morning all, welcome to Friday and the big jobs report.

Yesterday the market stumbled itself into a slightly red close, not able to muster the firepower to continue moving higher. then overnight the Japanese yen fell again to  insanely low levels and that got global markets fired up, as they continue to use the Yen as a carry trade for of course...creating more debt instruments.

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