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7.9.2019 - Insider Bookmark

7.9.2019

Good "stormy" morning folks. Right now at 7:43, it's booming, flashing and raining sideways in Sarasota. Thankfully the power hasn't twitched...yet. 

7.8.2019 - Insider Bookmark

7.8.2019

Hello everyone, welcome back from your weekend. I truly hope it was a great one for you all. 

6.18.2019 - Insider Bookmark

6.18.2019

Hey everyone, good morning to you. 

So the day has already become a clown show. Overnight, Mario Draghi said the ECB is ready to go cut rates and fire up the QE machine. Just like Powell here in the US, it was just half a year ago that Draghi was talking tough about hiking rates. Now he's going full blown dove again, which of course threw the currency markets into a snit. 

6.17.2019 - Insider Bookmark

6.17.2019

Good morning everyone, welcome back from what I hope was a tremendous weekend. Ours was very different for a change. Being creatures of habit, we generally do our running around on Saturday, meaning groceries, post office, banking, etc. Then on Sunday, we either find a park to hike through, or a trail or a fishing pier, or our standard bike ride to the beach. 

6.14.2019 - Insider Bookmark

6.14.2019

Good morning all, we've made it to another Friday. 

So, yesterday we heard from the Trump Admin that they're pinning the blame on the ship bombings on Iran. That got oil off the deck, but didn't really send it "higher", it just came off its lows. the DOW put in 101 points, the S&P gained 11.  Pretty good for rising tensions, no? Yes. 

3.22.2019 - Insider Bookmark

3.22.2019

Another Friday. Wow do they rush by. 

So, the Feds capitulated, and on Wednesday the street couldn't figure out if it liked the free money and stupid-low interest rates, or if it was afraid of the economic slowdown that must be coming to make the Feds do such things. 

We ended the day in the red. 

3.21.2019 - Insider Bookmark

3.21.2019

Good morning all, welcome to Thursday.


You know what happened yesterday, the Fed's capitulated and folded like a cheap camera.  At first the market reaction was to go from - 140 on the DOW to + 35.

1.30.2019 - Insiders Bookmark

1.30.2019

Morning all, I hope you're sheltered from the weather.  I'm sitting here looking at the weather map and shaking my head, as we're seeing temps that are quite unbelievable. -25 in Chicago? -27 in areas of Wisconsin?  Wind chills of -60? 

These numbers are no joke folks. Stay safe. Stay inside as much as you can, and if you go out, make it as quick as you can. 



Well, we sort of saw that one coming. Yesterday was a big pause day for the market as they waited on the Feds, and China talks and... AAPL. 

After the bell AAPL announced earnings that evidently weren't "as bad as they might have feared," and "boom" they're up sharply. 

Here's the deal. Not long ago AAPL came out and said that they'd stop reporting unit sales, and they "guided" lower for the first time in like 15 years. So that had everyone in a panic that AAPL was in terrible shape. 

Well, it was pretty horrible, especially in China. Revenues from China sales fell over 25%.  Yet just like the old adage is to buy the rumor and sell the news, they flipped it and sold the news of the guidance slash,  and bought the actual release.

That's why we're looking at green futures this morning. 

Granted I'm typing this at 5:40 am, but we see the DOW looking to open + 80. The NASDAQ +50.


But that could change today, as we've got the Fed decision and press conference this afternoon, and we've got the start of the China trade talks. While I'm sure there's not going to be any rate hike today and their language is going to be fairly dovish, I'm more interested in what they're going to say about the balance sheet. 

Wall Street is playing down the effect of the winding down of the balance sheet, but I feel that's a mistake. Their balance sheet was the liquidity that pushed all these markets to bubble territory. Take away that juice, and what's to replace it? Nothing.

Most are thinking that if they stop hiking rates, then everything will be just fine. I don't agree with that. To be "fine" the way Wall Street defines fine ( meaning the market continues higher)  I think they have to stop hiking rates AND slow the rate of balance sheet reductions. That's the part of Powell's talk I'll be looking for. 

There's still a ton of earnings coming at us today, so get your popcorn. 

We'll know a lot more about what this market is all about after we get past today. Actually, past tomorrow morning, because it will take them another half a day to digest the Fed. 

With that in mind, today's simply a watch day. 

So, I'll get with you around 11, and see what else has developed. I'll see you then. 

1.28.2019 - Insider Bookmark

1.28.2019

Good morning all, welcome back from your weekend. I know for all my northern friends that the cold has been putting a damper on some of your activity. Just so you weren't completely alone, the weather soured here in Florida and we got swamped with a steady downpour of rain for 14 hours.

12.18.2018 - Insiders Bookmark

12.18.2018

Hi all, another day dawns. 

Yesterday was a meaningful flush.  In yet another failed attempt for higher early in the session, they rolled it over again and this time nothing was safe. Even the sectors that they'd been hiding in for "safety" got sold.  It was indeed ugly, and it caught everyone's attention.

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