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6.19.2019 - Free Investing Newsletter Bookmark

Negative
 
Here’s something you don’t hear about on your 6 pm news. The amount of sovereign debt trading with a negative yield hits an all- time high. Yes folks, negative interest rates.

*FRENCH 10-YEAR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 0% FOR THE FIRST TIME
*SWEDISH 10-YEAR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 0% FOR FIRST TIME
*AUSTRIAN 10-YEAR BOND YIELD FALLS BELOW 0% FOR FIRST TIME
 
Are you seeing a trend here? Good, because whether you want to believe it or not, we’re going to be experiencing negative interest rates here too. It’s simply a matter of time.
 

5.1.2019 The Freebie is posted! Bookmark

Hey everyone, in today's FIR, we look at what's happening in Venezuela and ask the question, could it happen here? Spoiler: Yes it could. The war between the left and the right is going to get brutal in the next year and a half, and all hell could break loose. 

 

Then we talk about Powell and the FOMC meeting today. As I suggested, there was no rate hike or rate cut. But some of the things Powell did say, was indeed noteworthy. 

3.19.2019 - Insider Bookmark

3.19.2019

Good morning all, welcome to the first day of the FOMC meeting, which is also known as Tuesday. 

Yesterday the market was hugging the flat line for hours, which made perfect sense. Why did that make sense? Well, we had broken out over resistance, and it is usual and common to simply pause and catch its breath. 

1.30.2019 - Insiders Bookmark

1.30.2019

Morning all, I hope you're sheltered from the weather.  I'm sitting here looking at the weather map and shaking my head, as we're seeing temps that are quite unbelievable. -25 in Chicago? -27 in areas of Wisconsin?  Wind chills of -60? 

These numbers are no joke folks. Stay safe. Stay inside as much as you can, and if you go out, make it as quick as you can. 



Well, we sort of saw that one coming. Yesterday was a big pause day for the market as they waited on the Feds, and China talks and... AAPL. 

After the bell AAPL announced earnings that evidently weren't "as bad as they might have feared," and "boom" they're up sharply. 

Here's the deal. Not long ago AAPL came out and said that they'd stop reporting unit sales, and they "guided" lower for the first time in like 15 years. So that had everyone in a panic that AAPL was in terrible shape. 

Well, it was pretty horrible, especially in China. Revenues from China sales fell over 25%.  Yet just like the old adage is to buy the rumor and sell the news, they flipped it and sold the news of the guidance slash,  and bought the actual release.

That's why we're looking at green futures this morning. 

Granted I'm typing this at 5:40 am, but we see the DOW looking to open + 80. The NASDAQ +50.


But that could change today, as we've got the Fed decision and press conference this afternoon, and we've got the start of the China trade talks. While I'm sure there's not going to be any rate hike today and their language is going to be fairly dovish, I'm more interested in what they're going to say about the balance sheet. 

Wall Street is playing down the effect of the winding down of the balance sheet, but I feel that's a mistake. Their balance sheet was the liquidity that pushed all these markets to bubble territory. Take away that juice, and what's to replace it? Nothing.

Most are thinking that if they stop hiking rates, then everything will be just fine. I don't agree with that. To be "fine" the way Wall Street defines fine ( meaning the market continues higher)  I think they have to stop hiking rates AND slow the rate of balance sheet reductions. That's the part of Powell's talk I'll be looking for. 

There's still a ton of earnings coming at us today, so get your popcorn. 

We'll know a lot more about what this market is all about after we get past today. Actually, past tomorrow morning, because it will take them another half a day to digest the Fed. 

With that in mind, today's simply a watch day. 

So, I'll get with you around 11, and see what else has developed. I'll see you then. 

1.4.2019 - Insiders Bookmark

1.4.2019

Morning all, it's another Friday. 

Yesterday was ugly. Again. Yes it was  AAPL, yes it was the credit market, yes it was a lot of things. 

When I saw them tumbling lower into the close, down 660,  I figured that my SPY had been sold off. It was. I didn't want to hold any SPY red, so I had set an electronic stop for  244.00 That got hit.

12.20.2018ic1 Bookmark

12.20.2018

Hi. 

Yesterday, the wife and I met up with our friends for the last day before they were to head back home. But I did get to listen to Powell's testimony after the hike decision. It was NOT what I expected. 

11.28.2018 - Insider Bookmark

11.28.2018

Good morning all, welcome to Wednesday. 

Down here in Sunny FL, a bit of a cold front has come through and I awoke to a whopping 46 degrees. For 90% of the country that's not even a blip, but for us down here, it's a "polar blast".  Naturally it will warm back up in the coming days, but it is refreshing to feel a chill in the air. 

8.24.2018 - Insider Bookmark

8.24.2018

Good morning folks, we've made it to another Friday. 

The news will be dominated by all the blather coming out of Jackson Hole WY today. Once a year all the big movers and shakers gather there to bloviate about the economy, policy, and what they think they see for the future.  But there is an interesting twist to this years meeting. Some of the movers and shakers "didn't come".

7.18.2018 - Insider Bookmark

7.18.2018

Good morning all, welcome to a new day. 

Just a quick note from the home front...my mom's doing pretty well, and thanks for all the well wishes.  While I'm not out of the woods yet, at least the worst is over. No matter who you are, when you're presented with the passing of a close relative, it's tough. Losing her last remaining sister was a body blow for her, but she's weathering it as best you could hope for. 

6.13.2018 - Free Investment Newsletter Bookmark

This Guy Trump
 
I’ve come through a few Presidents in my life.  But never has one stirred the pot like the present. The people that don’t like him, just don’t “don’t like him” they hate him with a fervor that’s rare to see.
 
Just the other day, Robert De Nero went off the reservation at the 72nd Tony Awards, the annual ceremony that’s supposed to celebrate the best of Broadway. But instead of leading off with praise for the actors and actresses, he felt it necessary to change the script.

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